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HighPeak Energy (HPK)
NASDAQ:HPK
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HighPeak Energy (HPK) AI Stock Analysis

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HPK

HighPeak Energy

(NASDAQ:HPK)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(0.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is held back primarily by pressured financial performance (TTM net loss and slightly negative free cash flow despite solid operating cash flow) and limited valuation clarity due to negative earnings. Offsetting factors include constructive technical momentum and a generally positive earnings call focused on operational outperformance, cost discipline, and an expected H2 capex step-down to improve free cash flow.
Positive Factors
Production and cost execution
Production above guidance and structurally lower lease operating costs indicate effective field execution, infrastructure benefits and operating efficiencies that can support resilient margins across the next several months.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
The recent loss despite revenue growth shows that earnings power remains sensitive to realizations, hedging and operating costs. Continued volatility could weaken internal funding and reduce confidence in sustainable profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production and cost execution
Production above guidance and structurally lower lease operating costs indicate effective field execution, infrastructure benefits and operating efficiencies that can support resilient margins across the next several months.
Read all positive factors

HighPeak Energy (HPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
HighPeak Energy, Inc. operates as an independent energy company, primarily focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Its principal area of operations is the Midland Bas...
How the Company Makes Money
HighPeak Energy primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—generated from wells it drills and operates on its acreage in the Midland Basin. Revenue is recognized when produced volumes are sold and ...

HighPeak Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 15, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed an overall positive operational and financial picture: production exceeded guidance, LOE was materially below expectations (≈13% better), development execution advanced ahead of schedule, and H1 generated ~$281M of EBITDAX. Management proactively pulled forward completions to capture service-cost efficiencies and expanded a high-return workover program, positioning the company for materially lower capex and stronger free cash flow in H2. The primary negatives were ~$55M of net hedge losses and Q2 gas-basis/negative pricing pressures that reduced realizations and created some mix-related lumpiness (oil percentage ~60.4% vs guidance ~60.7–60.8%). Balance sheet liquidity (cash $146M) and hedging actions were emphasized as mitigating factors. Overall, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights.
Positive Updates
Production Above Guidance
Production averaged 45,500 BOE/d during the first six months of 2026, exceeding the high end of the company's guidance range and remaining essentially flat quarter-over-quarter.
Negative Updates
Net Cash Hedge Losses
The quarter absorbed approximately $55 million of net cash hedge losses, which moderated headline financial performance despite operational strength.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Production Above Guidance
Production averaged 45,500 BOE/d during the first six months of 2026, exceeding the high end of the company's guidance range and remaining essentially flat quarter-over-quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management reiterated 2026 guidance and a path to materially lower second‑half capital, noting first‑half production averaged 45.5k BOE/d (above the high end of guide), drilled 17 of 29 planned wells, completed 24 of 33, and turned 20 of a targeted 37 wells to sales; first‑half capex was $185.9M (mid‑ to upper‑60% of the annual budget versus the ~60% plan), generating ~ $281M of EBITDAX and unit LOE of $7.56/BOE (≈13% below midpoint of full‑year LOE guide), while absorbing ~ $55M of net cash hedge losses; quarter‑end cash was $146M, term‑loan amortization begins at $30M/quarter, the majority of oil hedges sit in the mid‑$60s/bbl, and management expects meaningfully lower capex in H2, stronger free cash flow, and continued discipline on costs and capital allocation.

HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement quality is weak given the TTM swing to a net loss (despite revenue growth), while operating cash flow is solid but free cash flow is slightly negative and volatile. Balance sheet capacity is adequate with moderate leverage, but the rising leverage trend and loss-driven negative ROE keep the financial profile pressured.
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue843.00M863.36M1.07B1.11B755.69M220.12M
Gross Profit284.64M178.71M376.74M483.04M469.90M119.12M
EBITDA421.11M596.15M792.11M842.68M540.94M140.31M
Net Income-88.72M18.96M95.07M215.87M236.85M55.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.17B3.34B3.06B3.08B2.28B818.96M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments146.35M162.07M86.65M194.51M30.50M34.87M
Total Debt1.19B1.13B929.77M1.15B704.69M97.93M
Total Liabilities1.62B1.75B1.46B1.53B1.11B265.90M
Stockholders Equity1.55B1.59B1.60B1.55B1.17B553.06M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-14.73M-10.56M69.21M-369.55M-807.33M-143.98M
Operating Cash Flow393.88M511.60M690.39M756.39M504.01M147.01M
Investing Cash Flow-383.40M-515.34M-620.84M-1.13B-1.18B-250.37M
Financing Cash Flow114.02M79.17M-177.41M533.56M674.03M118.67M

HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price8.00
Price Trends
50DMA
7.32
Positive
100DMA
7.10
Positive
200DMA
6.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.22
Negative
RSI
55.52
Neutral
STOCH
46.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.62, above the 50-day MA of 7.32, and above the 200-day MA of 6.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HPK.

HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$1.05B1.7540.22%8.77%
69
Neutral
$931.67M4.9316.06%75.40%
66
Neutral
$829.44M6.8419.88%4.45%23.16%21.24%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
65
Neutral
$1.47B-15.78-3.45%-5.91%-114.75%
54
Neutral
$981.27M-10.13-5.69%2.09%-12.57%-188.23%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HPK
HighPeak Energy
8.00
0.33
4.26%
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
38.28
10.44
37.48%
DEC
Diversified Energy Company
15.07
-0.28
-1.81%
GFR
Greenfire Resources
6.15
2.26
58.10%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
14.64
1.93
15.16%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
15.08
0.28
1.89%

HighPeak Energy Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Posts Strong Second-Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
HighPeak Energy reported strong second-quarter 2026 results on August 10, 2026, with sales volumes averaging 45.3 MBoe/d, approximately 64% crude oil, supported by the operation of one drilling rig and one frac crew that drilled eight gross horizo...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
HighPeak Energy Tightens Leverage Covenants Across Credit Facilities
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, HighPeak Energy, Inc. entered into a Fourth Amendment to its November 2023 credit agreement with Fifth Third Bank and other lenders, revising the covenant governing its Total Net Leverage Ratio to a maximum of 2.25 to 1.00 for th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2026