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HighPeak Energy
(NASDAQ:HPK)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(50.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/20/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened financial performance (TTM net loss and slightly negative free cash flow). This is partially offset by strong technical strength (price well above key moving averages and positive MACD) and supportive forward-looking signals from the earnings call (above-guidance production, lower expected H2 capex, stronger expected free cash flow), with the announced refinancing package providing an additional balance-sheet catalyst.
Positive Factors
Low Operating Costs
Operating costs below guidance indicate effective infrastructure, electrification, and field-level optimization. If sustained, lower unit costs can protect margins across commodity cycles, support stronger cash generation, and improve the economics of future Midland Basin development.
Negative Factors
Recent Profitability Deterioration
The shift from profitability to a meaningful TTM net loss weakens confidence in current earnings power despite revenue growth and strong EBITDA margins. Continued earnings volatility could limit internally funded investment, reduce returns on equity, and complicate debt reduction.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low Operating Costs
Operating costs below guidance indicate effective infrastructure, electrification, and field-level optimization. If sustained, lower unit costs can protect margins across commodity cycles, support stronger cash generation, and improve the economics of future Midland Basin development.
Read all positive factors
HighPeak Energy (HPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.39B
Dividend Yield1.42%
Average Volume (3M)662.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue Growth-12.57%
EPS Growth-188.23%
CountryUS
Employees50
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.79
Shares Outstanding126,452,805
10 Day Avg. Volume824,068
30 Day Avg. Volume662,188
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.45
Price to Book (P/B)0.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio-56.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.00Price Target Upside25.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$909.53M
HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HighPeak Energy, Inc. operates as an independent energy company, primarily focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and extraction of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Its principal area of operations is the Midland Bas...
How the Company Makes Money
HighPeak Energy primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—generated from wells it drills and operates on its acreage in the Midland Basin. Revenue is recognized when produced volumes are sold and ...
HighPeak Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 15, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed an overall positive operational and financial picture: production exceeded guidance, LOE was materially below expectations (≈13% better), development execution advanced ahead of schedule, and H1 generated ~$281M of EBITDAX. Management proactively pulled forward completions to capture service-cost efficiencies and expanded a high-return workover program, positioning the company for materially lower capex and stronger free cash flow in H2. The primary negatives were ~$55M of net hedge losses and Q2 gas-basis/negative pricing pressures that reduced realizations and created some mix-related lumpiness (oil percentage ~60.4% vs guidance ~60.7–60.8%). Balance sheet liquidity (cash $146M) and hedging actions were emphasized as mitigating factors. Overall, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Production Above Guidance
Production averaged 45,500 BOE/d during the first six months of 2026, exceeding the high end of the company's guidance range and remaining essentially flat quarter-over-quarter.
Negative Updates
Net Cash Hedge Losses
The quarter absorbed approximately $55 million of net cash hedge losses, which moderated headline financial performance despite operational strength.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Above Guidance
Production averaged 45,500 BOE/d during the first six months of 2026, exceeding the high end of the company's guidance range and remaining essentially flat quarter-over-quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management reiterated 2026 guidance and a path to materially lower second‑half capital, noting first‑half production averaged 45.5k BOE/d (above the high end of guide), drilled 17 of 29 planned wells, completed 24 of 33, and turned 20 of a targeted 37 wells to sales; first‑half capex was $185.9M (mid‑ to upper‑60% of the annual budget versus the ~60% plan), generating ~ $281M of EBITDAX and unit LOE of $7.56/BOE (≈13% below midpoint of full‑year LOE guide), while absorbing ~ $55M of net cash hedge losses; quarter‑end cash was $146M, term‑loan amortization begins at $30M/quarter, the majority of oil hedges sit in the mid‑$60s/bbl, and management expects meaningfully lower capex in H2, stronger free cash flow, and continued discipline on costs and capital allocation.HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 843.00M | 863.36M | 1.07B | 1.11B | 755.69M | 220.12M |
| Gross Profit | 284.64M | 178.71M | 376.74M | 483.04M | 469.90M | 119.12M |
| EBITDA | 416.81M | 596.15M | 792.11M | 842.68M | 540.57M | 140.15M |
| Net Income | -88.72M | 18.96M | 95.07M | 215.87M | 236.85M | 55.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.17B | 3.34B | 3.06B | 3.08B | 2.28B | 818.96M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 146.35M | 162.07M | 86.65M | 194.51M | 30.50M | 34.87M |
| Total Debt | 1.19B | 1.13B | 929.77M | 1.15B | 704.69M | 97.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.62B | 1.75B | 1.46B | 1.53B | 1.11B | 265.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.55B | 1.59B | 1.60B | 1.55B | 1.17B | 553.06M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -14.73M | -10.56M | 69.21M | -369.55M | -807.33M | -143.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 393.88M | 511.60M | 690.39M | 756.39M | 504.01M | 147.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -383.40M | -515.34M | -620.84M | -1.13B | -1.18B | -250.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 114.02M | 79.17M | -177.41M | 533.56M | 674.03M | 118.67M |
HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
8.00
Price Trends
8.55
Positive
7.92
Positive
6.89
Positive
Market Momentum
0.83
Negative
74.08
Negative
83.55
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.25, below the 50-day MA of 8.55, and above the 200-day MA of 6.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 74.08 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.55 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HPK.
HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $1.08B | 8.63 | 19.88% | 3.31% | 23.16% | 21.24% | |
72 Outperform | $1.01B | 1.66 | 64.44% | 8.15% | ― | ― | |
67 Neutral | $870.15M | 4.45 | 20.75% | ― | 75.40% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $1.65B | -17.84 | -3.45% | ― | -5.91% | -114.75% | |
60 Neutral | $1.39B | -14.25 | -5.69% | 1.42% | -12.57% | -188.23% |
* Energy Sector Average
HPK
HighPeak Energy
11.26
4.14
58.21%
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
51.10
25.10
96.53%
DEC
Diversified Energy Company
14.39
2.39
19.93%
GFR
Greenfire Resources
6.86
3.03
79.16%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
13.93
2.06
17.37%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
13.62
1.60
13.31%
HighPeak Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
HighPeak Energy Announces Transformational Refinancing and Strategic Investment
Positive
Oct 6, 2026
On October 6, 2026, HighPeak Energy announced a comprehensive refinancing package combining a $450 million issuance of Series A 6.0% Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock and a committed $800 million reserve-based credit facility. The preferred eq...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Posts Strong Second-Quarter 2026 Results
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
HighPeak Energy reported strong second-quarter 2026 results on August 10, 2026, with sales volumes averaging 45.3 MBoe/d, approximately 64% crude oil, supported by the operation of one drilling rig and one frac crew that drilled eight gross horizo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.