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Harmony Gold Mining
(NYSE:HMY)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
$20.00
▼(-12.85% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/29/26
Overall score reflects strong financial performance (material margin and earnings improvement with generally conservative leverage) and a very attractive valuation (low P/E), supported by constructive technical trend signals. The earnings call adds confidence via guidance delivery and robust cash generation/shareholder returns, partially tempered by one-off cash impacts, contingent liabilities, and execution/regulatory risks at CSA and Eva Copper.
Positive Factors
Consistent production and cost execution
Delivering production and cost guidance for an eleventh consecutive year demonstrates repeatable operating execution across Harmony’s mining portfolio. This consistency supports more reliable planning, cash generation and reserve development, while reducing the risk that growth depends solely on favorable commodity prices.
Negative Factors
Persistent deep-level mining safety risk
Recent fatal seismic incidents at two underground operations highlight an enduring safety challenge in Harmony’s deep-level mining model. Investigations, work suspensions and stronger controls may disrupt operations, increase regulatory scrutiny and require sustained investment in workforce protection.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent production and cost execution
Delivering production and cost guidance for an eleventh consecutive year demonstrates repeatable operating execution across Harmony’s mining portfolio. This consistency supports more reliable planning, cash generation and reserve development, while reducing the risk that growth depends solely on favorable commodity prices.
Read all positive factors
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.91B
Dividend Yield2.36%
Average Volume (3M)4.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.1
Beta (1Y)1.18
Revenue Growth49.72%
EPS Growth120.32%
CountryUS
Employees34,350
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)45.96
Shares Outstanding638,850,800
10 Day Avg. Volume3,745,935
30 Day Avg. Volume4,085,397
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)1.48
P/FCF Ratio10.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.17
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.86B
Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits. It has nine und...
How the Company Makes Money
Harmony primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Its core revenue model is to (1) mine ore from its underground and surface operations, (2) process that ore to produce gold (e.g., dore or refined output depending on downstream arrangem...
Harmony Gold Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive financial and operational performance with record revenue, substantial free cash flow growth, higher earnings per share, robust shareholder returns and meaningful increases in copper resources and reserves. Operationally, management met gold production and cost guidance and reported encouraging CSA integration and exploration results. However, notable cautions include roughly ZAR 10 billion of one-off cash impacts that weighed on consensus cash flow, remaining contingent liabilities (~ZAR 2.1 billion), operational constraints at CSA that require further work (ventilation) and regulatory uncertainty at Eva Copper; a portion of the portfolio upside is described as conceptual. Overall the positive financial and resource/operational momentum materially outweighs the identified execution and contingent risks.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Earnings
Revenue increased 34% year-on-year to ZAR 100 billion (USD 5.9 billion). Headline earnings per share rose 87% to ZAR 43.63 per share.
Negative Updates
Significant One-off Cash Flow Impacts
Reported one-off cash flow impacts of around ZAR 10 billion (including CSA-related costs, contingent payments, acquisition integration and hedging adjustments) contributed to cash flow falling below some consensus expectations.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Earnings
Revenue increased 34% year-on-year to ZAR 100 billion (USD 5.9 billion). Headline earnings per share rose 87% to ZAR 43.63 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the FY2026 results call Harmony said it met guidance across key operating metrics: group gold production of 1.43 Moz, underground recovered gold grade of 5.83 g/t and all‑in sustaining cost of ZAR 1.19m/kg (USD 2,195/oz) were all in line with guidance, while CSA contributed 18,207 t of copper at a recovered grade of 3.75% and a C1 cash cost of USD 2.47/lb; management signalled a pathway to 40,000 tpa copper and reported record development of 560 m in June and 12,000 m drilled in Q4 (with intercepts up to 12% Cu). Financially, revenue rose 34% to ZAR 100bn (USD 5.9bn), headline EPS rose 87% to ZAR 43.63/share, adjusted free cash flow grew 54% to ZAR 17bn (USD 1bn), and a record final dividend of ZAR 4.8bn (ZAR 7.50/share) took full‑year dividends to ZAR 8.2bn (ZAR 12.80/share, ~3.5% yield). On resources and reserves, gold MREs were steady at ~107 Moz, gold reserves rose to 27.4 Moz, copper MREs increased 18.5% to 7.4 Mt and copper reserves rose 71% to 4.0 Mt (including Eva and CSA), while management highlighted ~350,000 oz of conceptual “blue‑sky” upside (150k mine‑life extension, 100k tailings, ~100k other optimisations), maintained Eva Copper first‑copper and CapEx guidance for 2028, and noted remaining contingent liabilities of ~ZAR 2.1bn (Mponeng ZAR 433m, Eva ZAR 540m, Glencore NSR ~ZAR 1.1bn).Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 104.72B | 73.90B | 61.38B | 49.27B | 42.65B |
| Gross Profit | 48.99B | 29.30B | 14.15B | 9.74B | 718.00M |
| EBITDA | 53.83B | 26.27B | 16.52B | 11.05B | 3.34B |
| Net Income | 28.23B | 14.38B | 8.59B | 4.82B | -1.05B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 124.99B | 77.50B | 60.46B | 57.24B | 46.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.42B | 13.10B | 4.73B | 2.87B | 2.45B |
| Total Debt | 9.40B | 2.23B | 2.29B | 6.22B | 3.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 50.21B | 28.99B | 19.51B | 22.36B | 16.69B |
| Stockholders Equity | 74.50B | 48.23B | 40.77B | 34.76B | 30.04B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 15.17B | 10.79B | 7.25B | 2.31B | 710.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 32.33B | 22.65B | 15.65B | 9.95B | 6.92B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -35.96B | -11.96B | -8.37B | -10.60B | -6.20B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -327.00M | -2.21B | -5.43B | 1.19B | -1.15B |
Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis
Negative
22.95
Price Trends
19.23
Negative
17.66
Negative
18.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.60
Positive
37.90
Neutral
10.74
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.04, above the 50-day MA of 19.23, and above the 200-day MA of 18.20, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.74 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HMY.
Harmony Gold Mining Risk Analysis
Harmony Gold Mining disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmony Gold Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $10.91B | 6.09 | 46.23% | 2.36% | 49.72% | 120.32% | |
81 Outperform | $31.52B | 7.07 | 51.87% | 6.61% | 71.19% | 133.85% | |
80 Outperform | $6.78B | 25.69 | 10.25% | 0.09% | 48.40% | 42.80% | |
78 Outperform | $2.08B | 8.21 | 36.20% | 4.27% | 52.87% | 104.06% | |
78 Outperform | $121.76B | 14.57 | 25.02% | 0.89% | 23.61% | 42.29% | |
78 Outperform | $47.94B | 12.58 | 45.77% | 4.78% | ― | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
17.32
-0.66
-3.68%
DRD
Drdgold
24.41
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-12.63%
GFI
Gold Fields
36.17
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-10.08%
NEM
Newmont Mining
116.39
30.25
35.11%
SSRM
SSR Mining
34.28
11.05
47.58%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
93.55
22.32
31.34%
Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events
Harmony Gold Prices US$500m Convertible Bond to 2031
Sep 22, 2026
On 22 September 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced it had priced a US$500 million offering of guaranteed senior unsecured convertible bonds due 2031, with a 1.5% semi-annual coupon and an initial conversion premium of 40% over a c...
Harmony Gold Launches US$500m Convertible Bond to Strengthen Balance Sheet
Sep 21, 2026
On 21 September 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited launched an offering of US$500 million guaranteed senior unsecured convertible bonds due 2031 to international qualified investors outside the United States. The bonds, issued at par with a...
Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Seismic Incident at Mponeng Mine
Sep 15, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, a South African gold miner headquartered in Randfontein and listed on the JSE as HAR, operates deep-level underground mines including the Mponeng mine in Gauteng’s West Rand. The company’s fortunes ...
Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Seismic Incident at Moab Khotsong Mine
Sep 8, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining reported a fatal accident at its Moab Khotsong mine near Orkney on Sunday, 6 September 2026, when an employee died in a seismicity-related incident underground. The company said all relevant stakeholders have been notified and ...
Harmony Gold Posts Record FY26 Cash Flow and Dividend as Copper Portfolio Advances
Aug 27, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining reported its financial and operational results for the year ended 30 June 2026, highlighting strong performance in both gold and copper operations. The group achieved production guidance for the 11th consecutive year, with gold...
Harmony Gold Mining Delivers Record FY26 Cash Flows and Dividends as Copper Portfolio Takes Shape
Aug 27, 2026
For the financial year ended 30 June 2026, Harmony Gold Mining reported a defining year in its evolution into a diversified gold and copper producer, achieving gold output of 44,464kg in line with guidance and integrating the CSA copper mine. Unde...
Harmony Gold Mining Flags Earnings Surge on Strong FY26 Output and Higher Prices
Aug 21, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining reported that the financial year ended 30 June 2026 marked a pivotal step in its shift to a diversified gold and copper producer, with group gold output of 44,464kg and copper production of 18,207 tonnes from the newly acquired...
Harmony Gold Mining Reports Van Eck’s Stake Rise to Over 5%
Aug 18, 2026
On 18 August 2026, Harmony Gold Mining announced that Van Eck Associate Corporation had increased its holding in the miner’s ordinary shares to 5.0167% of the company’s total issued share capital. The acquisition of this enlarged benef...
Harmony Gold Mining Reshapes Board Governance With New Lead Independent Director
Aug 17, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited has announced changes to its board governance structure, reflecting adjustments within the company’s key oversight committees. The moves highlight ongoing attention to nomination, audit, risk and independe...
Harmony Gold cuts funding costs and adds AUD debt in oversubscribed multi-currency loan deal
Jul 28, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced it had secured new oversubscribed syndicated multi-tranche, multi-currency loan facilities totaling US$500 million, A$500 million and R7 billion. The package, which includes U.S. doll...
Harmony Gold Mining Reports Fatal Incident at TauTona Shaft
Jul 20, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining reported a fatal incident at its TauTona service shaft near Carletonville, where a female employee lost her life on Sunday, 19 July 2026. The event underscored ongoing safety risks in deep-level mining and drew immediate attent...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.