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Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd (HMY)
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Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) AI Stock Analysis

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HMY

Harmony Gold Mining

(NYSE:HMY)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(0.11% Upside)
Harmony Gold Mining's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including record cash flows and strategic growth initiatives. However, bearish technical indicators and a moderate valuation score temper the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong Financial Performance
Harmony's robust cash flow generation and profitability indicate strong financial health, supporting long-term operational stability and growth.
Strategic Copper Expansion
Expanding into copper diversifies revenue streams, aligning with global trends and enhancing resilience against gold price volatility.
Low Leverage
Conservative leverage provides financial flexibility, reducing risk and enabling strategic investments without overburdening the company.
Negative Factors
Increased Production Costs
Rising production costs can pressure margins, potentially impacting profitability if not managed effectively over time.
Safety Challenges
Safety issues can lead to operational disruptions and increased costs, affecting long-term productivity and reputation.
Potential Production Gap
Anticipated production gaps could impact future revenue streams, highlighting the need for strategic planning to mitigate risks.

Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited is one of South Africa's largest gold mining companies, primarily focused on the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold and other precious minerals. The company operates several mines across South Africa and has mining activities in Papua New Guinea. Harmony's core products include gold bullion, which is sold on the international market, and other by-products such as copper and silver. The company also engages in the development of mining projects aimed at increasing its resource base and production capacity.
How the Company Makes MoneyHarmony Gold Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company's revenue model is centered on extracting gold from its mines, which is then sold at prevailing market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold bullion, which constitutes the majority of its income, as well as the sale of by-products such as copper and silver. Additionally, Harmony may generate revenue through strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and investments in mining projects that enhance its operational capacity. Fluctuations in gold prices and demand in the global market significantly impact the company’s earnings, along with its operational efficiency and cost management.

Harmony Gold Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Harmony's earnings call highlighted a strong financial and operational performance with record cash flows and improved safety metrics. However, the company faced challenges in the second half with safety performance and an increase in production costs. Strategic initiatives in copper and a strong balance sheet position the company well for future growth.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Consistent Production Guidance Achievement
FY '25 marks Harmony's 10th consecutive year of meeting production guidance, demonstrating operational excellence and effective capital allocation.
Record Financial Performance
Record high cash flows with adjusted free cash flow reaching over ZAR 11 billion at a 16% margin. Headline earnings per share rose by 26% to ZAR 23.37 per share, and a record final dividend of ZAR 2.4 billion was declared.
Improved Safety Metrics
Achieved the lowest ever LTIFR in company history at 5.39 per million hours worked, despite challenges in the second half of the year.
High-Grade Mining Success
Underground recovered grades increased to 6.27 grams per tonne, exceeding upward revised grade guidance.
Strong Balance Sheet and Cash Position
Net cash on the balance sheet surged by 285% to ZAR 11.1 billion, with a significant increase in available liquidity to ZAR 20.9 billion.
Strategic Growth in Copper
Acquisition of MAC Copper and progress on Eva Copper project bolster the portfolio's future growth and diversification.
Negative Updates
Safety Challenges in Second Half
The second half of the financial year saw unacceptable safety performance, though improvements are being made.
Production Decrease
Group production decreased by 5% to 46 tonnes or 1.48 million ounces, though this was in line with a focus on quality over volume.
Increased Costs
All-in sustaining costs increased by 17% to ZAR 1.05 million per kilogram, reflecting lower production, mine inflation, and higher royalties.
Contractor Challenges
Difficulties in securing contractors for projects at Moab Khotsong and Mponeng, though internal teams have been mobilized to maintain progress.
Potential Production Gap
A potential dip in production at Moab Khotsong expected between 2027 and 2031 due to delayed Zaaiplaats feasibility study.
Company Guidance
During Harmony's fiscal year 2025 call, the company provided several key metrics reflecting their performance and future guidance. Harmony achieved its 10th consecutive year of meeting production guidance, with gold production hitting the upper end at 46 tonnes or about 1.48 million ounces, and maintaining all-in sustaining costs at ZAR 1.05 million per kilogram, approximately USD 1,800 per ounce. The company reported a record adjusted free cash flow of over ZAR 11 billion, a 54% increase, and headline earnings per share rose by 26% to ZAR 23.37. Additionally, Harmony declared a record final dividend of ZAR 2.4 billion and noted a significant improvement in safety metrics, achieving the lowest LTIFR in its history at 5.39 per million hours worked. Looking forward, Harmony plans to maintain steady production guidance for FY '26 between 1.4 and 1.5 million ounces, with underground recovered grades remaining strong at above 5.8 grams per tonne. The company is also progressing its MAC Copper acquisition and Eva Copper project, with these ventures expected to enhance their portfolio and contribute significantly to future production.

Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Harmony Gold Mining exhibits a strong financial performance across all verticals. The income statement reflects robust growth and profitability, the balance sheet is characterized by low leverage and high returns, and the cash flow statement shows strong cash generation capabilities. The company is well-positioned for future growth with a solid financial foundation.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Harmony Gold Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10.37% increase in the latest year, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 39.65% and 19.47% respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 28.99% and 35.54%, indicating efficient operational management. The company has shown consistent improvement over the years, reflecting a positive growth trajectory.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.046, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity is impressive at 29.82%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio stands at 62.23%, suggesting a strong equity base. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position with minimal risk from debt.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow performance is strong, with a free cash flow growth rate of 13.55% and a healthy operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.83. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.48 indicates good cash conversion. The company has consistently improved its cash flow generation, supporting its operational and financial stability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2023Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue73.90B73.90B61.38B49.27B49.27B49.27B
Gross Profit29.30B29.30B14.15B9.74B9.74B9.74B
EBITDA26.27B26.27B16.52B11.05B11.05B11.05B
Net Income14.38B14.38B8.59B4.82B4.82B4.82B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets77.50B77.50B60.46B57.24B57.24B57.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.10B13.10B4.73B2.87B2.87B2.87B
Total Debt2.23B2.23B2.29B6.22B6.22B6.22B
Total Liabilities28.99B28.99B19.51B22.36B22.36B22.36B
Stockholders Equity48.23B48.23B40.77B34.76B34.76B34.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow10.79B10.79B7.25B2.31B2.31B2.31B
Operating Cash Flow22.65B22.65B15.65B9.95B9.95B9.95B
Investing Cash Flow-11.96B-11.96B-8.37B-10.60B-10.60B-10.60B
Financing Cash Flow-2.21B-2.21B-5.43B1.19B1.19B1.19B

Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price17.98
Price Trends
50DMA
16.96
Negative
100DMA
15.77
Positive
200DMA
14.66
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.51
Positive
RSI
45.15
Neutral
STOCH
40.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 17.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.79, above the 50-day MA of 16.96, and above the 200-day MA of 14.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HMY.

Harmony Gold Mining Risk Analysis

Harmony Gold Mining disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmony Gold Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$14.84B24.1014.90%1.02%28.11%66.85%
73
Outperform
$10.46B12.4332.05%1.27%29.08%72.12%
72
Outperform
$9.08B44.638.88%0.21%45.61%
67
Neutral
$2.30B17.6928.10%1.50%30.05%73.40%
66
Neutral
$9.43B21.5419.57%72.94%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
53
Neutral
$7.77B-8.31%6.27%93.14%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
16.42
7.15
77.13%
CDE
Coeur Mining
14.69
8.29
129.53%
DRD
Drdgold
26.14
16.56
172.86%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
13.88
8.32
149.64%
RGLD
Royal Gold
175.82
33.84
23.83%
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
10.68
6.46
153.08%

Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events

Harmony Gold Files Annual Report with SEC
Nov 3, 2025

On November 3, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the filing of its annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. This filing, which was completed on October 31, 2025, is a significant step in maintaining transparency and compliance with international financial reporting standards, potentially impacting the company’s operations and stakeholder confidence.

Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Incident at Mponeng Mine
Oct 27, 2025

On October 27, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported a tragic incident at its Mponeng mine, resulting in the loss of life of an electrician during routine maintenance on October 26, 2025. The company expressed condolences to the bereaved family and initiated a full investigation in collaboration with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources. Harmony reiterated its commitment to safety and proactive measures to ensure a culture of care across its operations.

Harmony Gold Releases FY25 Reports and Announces Board Changes
Oct 24, 2025

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the release of its annual reporting suite for the financial year ending June 30, 2025, on October 24, 2025. The reports highlight a year of consistent delivery, with Harmony meeting production guidance for the tenth consecutive year and achieving record free cash flows. The company is celebrating its 75th anniversary and is focused on expanding into copper to diversify its operations. Additionally, Harmony is committed to transformation in South Africa, as evidenced by its Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment report. The company also announced proposed changes to its board committees, including the appointment of Ms. Zanele Matlala as Chairperson of the Social and Ethics Committee, subject to shareholder approval at the upcoming AGM.

Harmony Gold Completes Acquisition of CSA Copper Mine
Oct 24, 2025

On October 24, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the completion of its acquisition of MAC Copper Limited, securing full ownership of the high-grade CSA copper mine in New South Wales, Australia. This strategic acquisition, valued at approximately US$1.01 billion, was funded through cash reserves and a bridge facility, and is expected to enhance Harmony’s position as a global gold and copper producer. The integration of the CSA mine is set to begin immediately, aiming to align its operations with Harmony’s frameworks to boost efficiency and contribute to long-term growth. This move marks a significant step in Harmony’s strategy to expand its copper production capabilities, reinforcing its commitment to sustainable value creation.

Harmony Gold’s Acquisition of MAC Copper Approved by Jersey Court
Oct 10, 2025

On October 10, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced that the Royal Court of Jersey has sanctioned its acquisition of MAC Copper Limited through a scheme of arrangement. This legal approval allows Harmony to proceed with the acquisition, with the implementation expected on October 24, 2025, granting Harmony ownership and operational control of the CSA Copper Mine. This strategic move is anticipated to enhance Harmony’s market position by diversifying its mining portfolio to include copper, potentially impacting stakeholders positively by expanding the company’s operational footprint.

Harmony Gold Awards Deferred Shares to Executives
Oct 3, 2025

On October 3, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the awarding of deferred shares to its executive directors and prescribed officers as part of the 2018 Harmony Deferred Share Plan. The shares, awarded on September 18, 2025, are set to vest in five equal tranches over a five-year period. This move is in compliance with the JSE Listings Requirements and reflects the company’s commitment to aligning the interests of its executives with those of its shareholders, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder confidence.

Harmony Gold Announces Vesting of Deferred Shares for Executives
Sep 25, 2025

On September 25, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the vesting and settlement of deferred share awards for its directors and prescribed officers under the Harmony Deferred Share Plan 2018. The transactions, which took place on September 18 and 22, 2025, involved the sale of vested ordinary shares by key executives, including the Group CEO, Financial Director, and other senior officers. These transactions reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to align executive compensation with shareholder interests and market performance.

Harmony Gold Mining Secures Acquisition of MAC Copper
Sep 3, 2025

On September 1, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining announced that MAC Copper Limited’s shareholders approved the sale of 100% of its issued share capital to Harmony Gold (Australia) Pty Ltd. This acquisition, pending final conditions, will add the high-grade CSA Copper mine in Australia to Harmony’s portfolio, enhancing cash flow resilience and supporting global decarbonisation trends.

Harmony Gold Reports Strong FY25 Results Amid Strategic Copper Expansion
Aug 28, 2025

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported its financial results for the year ended June 30, 2025, highlighting record cash flows, strong margins, and strategic expansion into copper. Despite a 5% decrease in gold production due to safety-related stoppages and adverse weather, the company achieved a 20% increase in revenue, driven by higher gold prices and improved grades at its South African operations. The company declared a record dividend payout and increased its net cash position significantly. Harmony’s strategic focus on copper as a key component of its growth strategy aligns with global energy transition trends, enhancing its portfolio and long-term growth outlook.

Harmony Gold Reports Strong FY25 Results with Record Cash Flows
Aug 28, 2025

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported its financial results for the year ended June 30, 2025, highlighting a strong performance with record free cash flows and a 26% increase in headline earnings per share. Despite a 5% decrease in total gold production, the company achieved a 27% increase in the average gold price received and a 31% increase in the Eva Copper Mineral Resource. The company declared a final dividend of 155 SA cents per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns. Harmony’s strategic focus on high-margin gold and copper operations, coupled with a disciplined approach to safety and sustainability, underscores its robust financial health and future growth prospects.

Harmony Gold Mining Reports Strong FY25 Results with Increased Earnings
Aug 25, 2025

Harmony Gold Mining announced its financial results for the year ended June 30, 2025, marking its tenth consecutive year of meeting guidance. The company achieved a group production of 46,023kg of gold, driven by strong performance from its South African operations and the Hidden Valley mine. Improved underground grades and disciplined cost management contributed to maintaining all-in sustaining costs within the guided range. The company expects a significant increase in earnings per share due to higher group revenue and gold prices, despite increased production costs and taxation expenses. Harmony’s strategy focuses on enhancing margins and long-term returns by prioritizing high-margin, low-risk assets.

Harmony Gold Secures Approval for MAC Copper Acquisition
Aug 19, 2025

On August 19, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced that its subsidiary, Harmony Gold (Australia) Pty Ltd, received approval from the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board for the acquisition of MAC Copper Limited. This acquisition includes the high-grade CSA Copper Mine in New South Wales, Australia, which produced approximately 41kt of copper in 2024. The approval marks a significant milestone in Harmony’s strategy to transform into a global gold and copper producer, promising substantial value for shareholders and stakeholders. The transaction is still subject to certain conditions, including shareholder approvals and court sanctioning, with the final decision expected after meetings on August 29, 2025.

Harmony Gold Appoints Frans Lombard as Independent Director
Aug 15, 2025

On August 14, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited appointed Frans Lombard as an independent non-executive director to its Board of Directors. With extensive experience in the metals, mining, engineering, and construction industries, Lombard is expected to enhance the board’s oversight capabilities and support the company’s commitment to sustainable value for shareholders and stakeholders.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2025