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Royal Gold
(NASDAQ:RGLD)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$243.00
▲(20.88% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
RGLD scores well primarily due to strong profitability and a low-leverage balance sheet, reinforced by a positive earnings call emphasizing record operating cash flow and solid liquidity/capital returns. The score is tempered by inconsistent free-cash-flow conversion, mixed longer-term technical trend signals (below 100/200DMAs), and a valuation profile that offers limited support given a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Royalty/Streaming Business Model
The royalty and streaming model yields recurring, cash-generative revenue tied to production and metal prices while avoiding direct mine operating and sustaining capital costs. This structurally reduces operating leverage to mining cost inflation and enables scalable cash returns and acquisitive growth without running mines.
Negative Factors
Weak Free Cash Flow Conversion
Despite strong operating cash flow, very low and volatile free cash flow reflects material investing swings and timing effects. This constrains the sustainability of buybacks/dividends and limits self-funded acquisitions, creating ongoing capital-allocation uncertainty and reliance on liquidity for growth over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Royalty/Streaming Business Model
The royalty and streaming model yields recurring, cash-generative revenue tied to production and metal prices while avoiding direct mine operating and sustaining capital costs. This structurally reduces operating leverage to mining cost inflation and enables scalable cash returns and acquisitive growth without running mines.
Read all positive factors
Royal Gold Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Highlights segment-level gross margins to show which parts of the business are most profitable, how efficient each line is at converting revenue into cash, and where margin pressure could pose risks to earnings.
Highlights segment-level gross margins to show which parts of the business are most profitable, how efficient each line is at converting revenue into cash, and where margin pressure could pose risks to earnings.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRoyal Gold (RGLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.73B
Dividend Yield0.83%
Average Volume (3M)697.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.6
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth93.51%
EPS Growth34.48%
CountryUS
Employees39
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)9.17
Shares Outstanding84,727,860
10 Day Avg. Volume649,484
30 Day Avg. Volume697,542
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.16
Price to Sales (P/S)14.98
P/FCF Ratio-33.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$285.80Price Target Upside42.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)10.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.86B
Royal Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Royal Gold, Inc. and its subsidiaries engage in the acquisition and oversight of precious metal streams, royalty agreements, and related rights. The company's strategy involves securing these interests or providing capital for projects, whether cu...
How the Company Makes Money
Royal Gold primarily makes money through (1) royalties and (2) metal streaming agreements, with revenue largely driven by precious-metals production from underlying mines and prevailing market prices for those metals.
1) Royalties (core revenue s...
Royal Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a materially stronger and larger business with record cash generation, substantial revenue and earnings growth, high margins, improved liquidity, active capital returns and multiple positive operational updates across newly acquired and existing assets. Key near-term negatives are higher DD&A and some increased interest and G&A costs, the variability tied to Antamina NPI and base-metal revenues, a front-loaded Relief Canyon delivery that accelerates revenue recognition, and remaining funding obligations (notably the 15% Hod Maden interest). Overall the positive financial and operational developments, liquidity improvements and successful portfolio simplification outweigh the identified challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenue of $451 million in Q2 2026, an increase of 115% year-over-year driven by higher metal prices, new contributions from Kansanshi and the Sandstorm/Horizon portfolio, and higher volumes from Andacollo, Rainy River and Cortez Legacy Zone.
Negative Updates
Higher DD&A Expense
DD&A increased to $96 million from $31 million year-over-year; unit DD&A rose to $962 per GEO versus $487 prior year. Increase driven by higher carrying values (Kansanshi, Sandstorm/Horizon assets) and one-time impacts (Relief Canyon advanced delivery ~$12M of the increase).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Revenue of $451 million in Q2 2026, an increase of 115% year-over-year driven by higher metal prices, new contributions from Kansanshi and the Sandstorm/Horizon portfolio, and higher volumes from Andacollo, Rainy River and Cortez Legacy Zone.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On guidance, management said gold and silver sales are tracking to 2026 guidance ranges while copper and “other metals” are trending around or above the top end of their ranges (noting YTD metal-price moves of gold +37%, silver +117% and copper +40%); gold remains 76% of revenue (silver 12%, copper 8%). They reiterated DD&A full‑year guidance of $339–$379 million (Q2 DD&A $96M; $962 per GEO vs $487/ GEO a year ago) and expect total G&A near the high end of the $50–$60M range (Q2 G&A $13.4M), with a full‑year effective tax rate of 17–22% (Q2 19.7%, YTD 19.9%). On liquidity and capital items they reported record Q2 operating cash flow of $335M (up 119%), total available liquidity of $1.2B (including $244M working capital), expect to fully repay the revolver in Q4 absent acquisitions, and noted near‑term commitments of $50M for Warintza (expected Q3/Q4) and ongoing 15% Hod Maden funding (Royal Gold has funded $70M to date, cumulative project spend ~$175M, Lidya to fund the next $397M, RG expects to resume its share mid‑2027 with initial concentrate targeted in 2028). They also noted a Centerra Mount Milligan deferred‑gold tranche expected late Q3/early Q4 (proceeds treated as operating cash flow, not GEOs) and that an advanced Relief Canyon delivery of 5,000 oz this quarter added about $22M (1,175 oz more this year than planned).Royal Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.55B | 1.03B | 712.77M | 598.42M | 596.18M | 645.17M |
| Gross Profit | 1.03B | 713.86M | 615.26M | 507.90M | 501.54M | 546.70M |
| EBITDA | 1.21B | 774.35M | 580.27M | 475.48M | 466.09M | 516.65M |
| Net Income | 737.96M | 466.28M | 332.02M | 239.44M | 238.98M | 274.04M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.45B | 9.54B | 3.39B | 3.36B | 3.53B | 2.76B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 182.47M | 233.72M | 195.50M | 104.17M | 118.59M | 143.55M |
| Total Debt | 395.89M | 965.61M | 0.00 | 245.97M | 571.57M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 1.82B | 2.33B | 260.92M | 460.42M | 781.05M | 155.82M |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.59B | 7.16B | 3.12B | 2.89B | 2.74B | 2.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 585.00K | -459.91M | 426.94M | 413.11M | -504.81M | 239.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.04B | 704.85M | 529.50M | 415.79M | 417.35M | 407.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.33B | -1.42B | -77.68M | -2.83M | -922.88M | -116.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 220.53M | 751.93M | -360.49M | -427.38M | 480.57M | -383.63M |
Royal Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
201.02
Price Trends
205.70
Positive
223.40
Positive
229.72
Negative
Market Momentum
7.63
Negative
63.30
Neutral
84.21
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RGLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 201.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 208.21, below the 50-day MA of 205.70, and below the 200-day MA of 229.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 7.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RGLD.
Royal Gold Risk Analysis
Royal Gold disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Royal Gold reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Royal Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $49.45B | 13.04 | 45.77% | 5.77% | ― | ― | |
77 Outperform | $19.33B | 14.92 | 12.49% | 0.13% | 116.79% | 211.59% | |
76 Outperform | $19.73B | 24.64 | 11.55% | 0.93% | 93.51% | 34.48% | |
76 Outperform | $36.59B | 9.65 | 50.82% | 5.40% | 68.87% | 187.55% | |
73 Outperform | $124.17B | 14.36 | 25.02% | 1.09% | 23.61% | 42.29% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
43 Neutral | $633.85M | -6.96 | -34.41% | ― | ― | 56.60% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
RGLD
Royal Gold
225.98
56.00
32.94%
CDE
Coeur Mining
18.45
6.77
58.02%
GFI
Gold Fields
39.53
10.42
35.79%
NEM
Newmont Mining
114.19
45.59
66.46%
CTGO
Contango ORE
19.48
-2.53
-11.49%
AU
Anglogold Ashanti PLC
95.07
43.60
84.72%
Royal Gold Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Royal Gold Shareholders Back Directors and Governance Measures
Positive
May 26, 2026
At its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 21, 2026, Royal Gold, Inc. reported that shareholders elected two Class III directors, Fabiana Chubbs and Sybil Veenman, to serve on the board until the 2029 annual meeting, with both nominees...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.