Holley (HLLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $236.98M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 646.19K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: -7.66%
• EPS Growth: -227.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,467
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 62
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 119,086,890
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 604,407
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 646,191
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.52
• 1Y Price Target: $3.33
• Price Target Upside: 67.34% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(0.50%Upside)

Holley's overall stock score reflects challenges with declining revenue and profitability, as well as a negative P/E ratio. However, positive aspects include core business growth and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call, which offer potential for recovery. The mixed technical indicators and lack of dividend further moderate the score.

Positive Factors

Market Reaction to Pricing

Survey suggests the market has taken recent price increases in stride; BUY recommendation.

Operational Turnaround

A refreshed management team has executed a broad operational turnaround, including cost reductions, SKU rationalization, pricing optimization, and deeper channel penetration.

Sales and Earnings Growth

Recent share gains and operational improvements should position the company well for accelerated sales and earnings gains as the industry normalizes.

Negative Factors

Consumer Confidence and Demand

Holley is straddling both the consumer enthusiast and auto supply segments—both pressured by weak consumer confidence, tighter distributor inventories, and tariff headwinds.

Tariff Impacts

Guidance excludes the impact of tariffs, which contributed to the stock's underperformance.

Tariff Uncertainty

Elevated volatility is expected in the near term with a need for more clarity on tariff exposure and policy impact.

Holley Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Holley Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets automotive aftermarket products for car and truck enthusiasts in the United States, Canada, Europe, and China. The company's products include carburetors, fuel pumps, fuel injection systems, nitrous oxide injection systems, superchargers, exhaust headers, mufflers, distributors, ignition components, engine tuners, automotive performance plumbing products, and exhaust products as well as shifters, converters, transmission kits, transmissions, tuners, and automotive software. It also offers wheels, chassis and suspension products, helmets, head and neck restraints, seat belts, firesuits, and electronic control and monitoring systems. The company sells its products under the Holley, Holley EFI, APR, MSD, Flowmaster, Powerteq, Accel, and Simpson brands to retailers directly, as well as through distributors and online channel. The company was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Bowling Green, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Holley Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its high-performance automotive aftermarket products. The company's revenue streams include direct sales to consumers via its online platform and retail locations, as well as wholesale distribution to automotive parts retailers and specialty shops. Holley also leverages partnerships with racing teams and automotive brands to enhance its market presence and drive brand loyalty. Additionally, the company invests in marketing and promotional activities aimed at automotive enthusiasts, which helps to maintain a strong customer base and stimulate sales growth. Key factors contributing to Holley's earnings include its diverse product portfolio, strong brand reputation, and strategic market positioning within the automotive aftermarket industry.

Holley Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Holley's financial performance is mixed, with challenges in profitability and revenue growth. The income statement indicates significant pressure on profitability, while the balance sheet benefits from a debt-free status, enhancing stability. However, declines in assets and equity pose risks. Cash flow management is resilient in generating free cash flow, but reduced operating cash flow is a concern.

Income Statement

Holley's income statement shows a decline in revenue over the TTM period, with a significant decrease in net income, resulting in a negative net profit margin. The gross profit margin remains relatively stable, but operating margins have contracted. The revenue growth rate is negative compared to the previous year, indicating challenges in sales performance. Overall, profitability is under pressure, affecting the score negatively.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with no total debt in the TTM period, improving the debt-to-equity ratio significantly. The equity ratio is relatively healthy, indicating a stable financial structure. However, the decrease in total assets and stockholders' equity compared to the previous year highlights potential concerns over asset management and shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Cash flow from operations has decreased compared to the previous year, but the company maintains positive free cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. However, the overall cash position is weakened by declining operating cash flow, impacting the score moderately.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	602.22M	659.70M	688.41M	692.85M	504.18M
Gross Profit	238.54M	256.09M	253.66M	286.81M	208.24M
EBITDA	55.20M	117.51M	148.95M	152.47M	104.42M
Net Income	-23.23M	19.18M	73.77M	-27.14M	32.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.13B	1.20B	1.25B	1.19B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	56.09M	41.08M	26.15M	36.33M	71.67M
Total Debt	557.91M	615.46M	655.67M	637.67M	674.99M
Total Liabilities	712.17M	762.19M	833.65M	888.57M	824.95M
Stockholders Equity	421.15M	441.15M	415.99M	304.49M	240.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	40.09M	82.16M	-390.00K	6.71M	78.93M
Operating Cash Flow	46.90M	88.09M	12.31M	21.58M	88.41M
Investing Cash Flow	2.02M	-4.45M	-25.04M	-134.09M	-165.62M
Financing Cash Flow	-34.60M	-69.01M	2.85M	77.16M	140.54M

Holley Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.20, below the 50-day MA of 2.12, and below the 200-day MA of 2.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 1.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLLY.

Holley Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STRT	78 Outperform	$258.63M	12.54	9.91%	―	5.54%	398.82%
SMP	72 Outperform	$668.88M	11.76	9.00%	3.94%	13.53%	-4.76%
PLOW	71 Outperform	$647.78M	10.34	26.52%	4.23%	1.14%	127.04%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$16.45B	10.04	-8.59%	3.35%	1.53%	-21.72%
MPAA	59 Neutral	$197.27M	―	-7.17%	―	5.53%	60.54%
HLLY	56 Neutral	$236.98M	18.60	-5.55%	―	-7.66%	-227.74%
SSUP	44 Neutral	$2.40M	―	-80.07%	―	-3.63%	36.19%