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Harmonic
(NASDAQ:HLIT)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▼(-10.64% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is supported primarily by a strong, guidance-raising earnings call with improving visibility from record backlog and solid margin outlook. This is tempered by weak recent financial performance (revenue collapse and net losses) and limited valuation support due to negative earnings and no dividend yield provided. Technicals are moderately constructive but not strongly confirmed given a slightly negative MACD.
Positive Factors
Backlog Visibility
Record backlog and deferred revenue provide substantial visibility into near-term revenue conversion and reduce reliance on winning entirely new business each quarter. The high expected conversion rate supports planning, resource allocation, and continued execution over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Customer Concentration
Revenue concentration leaves Harmonic materially exposed to spending decisions, renewals, or deployment timing at a small number of customers. Although rest-of-market activity is diversifying the base, the current concentration could still create pronounced revenue volatility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog Visibility
Record backlog and deferred revenue provide substantial visibility into near-term revenue conversion and reduce reliance on winning entirely new business each quarter. The high expected conversion rate supports planning, resource allocation, and continued execution over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Harmonic Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales across regions to reveal where Harmonic is growing and where it faces economic, regulatory, or competitive exposure. Regional mix highlights growth markets, currency and macro risk, and where management is winning customers for video infrastructure and software.
Breaks down sales across regions to reveal where Harmonic is growing and where it faces economic, regulatory, or competitive exposure. Regional mix highlights growth markets, currency and macro risk, and where management is winning customers for video infrastructure and software.
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The Fly
The FlyHarmonic (HLIT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.53
Revenue Growth-28.05%
EPS Growth-171.21%
CountryUS
Employees552
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryCommunication Equipment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.42
Shares Outstanding109,066,444
10 Day Avg. Volume1,516,760
30 Day Avg. Volume1,551,298
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.93
Price to Sales (P/S)3.12
P/FCF Ratio11.60
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.25
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.91
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.73
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.50Price Target Upside42.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.71
Revenue Forecast (FY)$518.27M
Harmonic Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Harmonic Inc., along with its affiliated entities, operates globally, delivering advanced software, hardware, system solutions, and related services for video content distribution. The company's business activities are structured into two main div...
How the Company Makes Money
Harmonic makes money primarily by selling and supporting video and broadband access solutions to media companies and cable/telecom operators. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Product revenue from software licenses and/or appliances/infra...
Harmonic Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a notably positive operational and financial update: strong top-line growth (Q2 revenue +54% YoY), record bookings and backlog, raised full-year guidance, improved profitability and a sizable cash infusion from the Video sale. Product momentum across fiber, DOCSIS 4.0, and the intelligence platform, plus a very high customer NPS (87), support continued growth. Key risks include customer concentration (two customers representing 63% of revenue), elevated inventory and memory cost pressures (built-in ~$3M/quarter), stranded costs from the Video divestiture (~$10M FY), and negative free cash flow in the quarter. On balance, the positive financial performance, improved visibility from backlog, and strategic progress materially outweigh the challenges called out.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Q2 Broadband revenue grew 54% year-over-year to $133.5 million, above the guidance range of $115M–$125M and the company’s strongest second quarter ever.
Negative Updates
Revenue Concentration Risk
Two customers each accounted for more than 10% of Q2 revenue and together represented 63% of total revenue, indicating high concentration despite rest-of-market diversification.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Q2 Broadband revenue grew 54% year-over-year to $133.5 million, above the guidance range of $115M–$125M and the company’s strongest second quarter ever.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Harmonic raised its full‑year 2026 Broadband revenue outlook to $505–$525M (from $475–$495M prior) and guided Q3’26 Broadband revenue of $125–$135M; gross margin guidance is 51–52% for both Q3 and the full year, Q3 operating profit $23–$28M (including ~$2.3M of stranded Video costs) and full‑year operating profit $99–$111M (including ~ $10M stranded costs, ~30% of which management expects to be eliminated within a year); EPS guidance is $0.15–$0.19 for Q3 and $0.67–$0.75 for the year (≈$0.09, or 14.5%, higher at the midpoint versus prior guidance). Management built roughly $3M/quarter of net unrecovered memory costs into second‑half guidance, lowered the expected non‑GAAP tax rate to ~23% (from 24.5%), and cited supporting KPIs including Q2 revenue of $133.5M (+54% YoY), Q2 EPS $0.21, bookings of $144M, book‑to‑bill 1.1 (rest‑of‑market >1.5), record backlog/deferred revenue ≈$588M (+71% YoY) with ~73% converting within 12 months, cash ≈$232M and an $85M undrawn credit facility.Harmonic Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
41
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 495.77M | 360.52M | 678.72M | 607.91M | 624.96M | 507.15M |
| Gross Profit | 251.39M | 163.66M | 365.92M | 312.55M | 315.88M | 259.74M |
| EBITDA | 68.00M | 23.74M | 77.40M | 34.09M | 61.65M | 32.55M |
| Net Income | -47.14M | -43.31M | 39.22M | 83.99M | 28.18M | 13.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 632.64M | 718.48M | 796.51M | 768.21M | 710.02M | 693.69M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 231.86M | 124.11M | 101.46M | 84.27M | 89.59M | 133.43M |
| Total Debt | 130.12M | 147.84M | 148.31M | 156.05M | 160.78M | 190.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 272.30M | 335.24M | 331.25M | 331.33M | 385.51M | 396.89M |
| Stockholders Equity | 360.35M | 383.25M | 465.26M | 436.87M | 324.51M | 296.80M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 53.91M | 96.89M | 52.73M | -1.42M | -3.77M | 28.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 62.32M | 107.97M | 61.92M | 7.06M | 5.48M | 41.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 123.55M | -11.08M | -9.19M | -8.47M | -1.29M | -12.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -78.47M | -81.39M | -33.27M | -4.99M | -43.13M | 7.94M |
Harmonic Technical Analysis
Negative
12.31
Price Trends
11.29
Negative
12.28
Negative
11.58
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.25
Positive
46.62
Neutral
36.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLIT, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.31 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.70, above the 50-day MA of 11.29, and above the 200-day MA of 11.58, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLIT.
Harmonic Risk Analysis
Harmonic disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmonic reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harmonic Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $49.80B | 76.01 | 22.82% | ― | 32.57% | 367.53% | |
76 Outperform | $36.97B | 18.90 | 18.10% | 2.81% | 3.88% | -16.99% | |
74 Outperform | $439.13B | 33.15 | 27.39% | 1.50% | 11.77% | 27.65% | |
67 Neutral | $2.41B | 48.48 | 6.54% | ― | 27.84% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | $1.15B | -25.41 | -12.23% | ― | -28.05% | -171.21% | |
59 Neutral | $8.19B | -259.35 | -3.16% | ― | 40.03% | -193.79% |
* Technology Sector Average
HLIT
Harmonic
10.73
0.35
3.37%
CALX
Calix
38.17
-24.06
-38.66%
CIEN
Ciena
363.21
173.94
91.90%
CSCO
Cisco Systems
110.29
40.26
57.48%
ERIC
Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson
11.07
1.17
11.85%
VIAV
Viavi Solutions
34.46
20.48
146.49%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.