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Greentown China Holdings
(3900)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
HK$5.50
â–¼(-10.13% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/30/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance: severe margin and earnings deterioration, high and rising leverage, and a sharp 2025 cash-flow drop. Technicals are mixed (short-term rebound but longer-term downtrend), while valuation is only modestly supported by the ~4.9% dividend yield and is capped by a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Continued Revenue Growth
Ongoing revenue growth indicates that Greentown China has maintained substantial business activity and project delivery scale despite difficult profitability conditions. Sustained top-line expansion can support future earnings recovery if margins stabilize and demonstrates that demand and the development pipeline remain meaningful.
Negative Factors
Severe Margin Compression
The sharp decline in gross and net margins shows that growing revenue is producing far less profit than in earlier years. Near-breakeven profitability reduces internal funding capacity, leaves less protection against project or market pressure, and makes an earnings recovery dependent on improved pricing, costs, or project mix.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Continued Revenue Growth
Ongoing revenue growth indicates that Greentown China has maintained substantial business activity and project delivery scale despite difficult profitability conditions. Sustained top-line expansion can support future earnings recovery if margins stabilize and demonstrates that demand and the development pipeline remain meaningful.
Read all positive factors
Greentown China Holdings (3900) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$14.04B
Dividend Yield5.93%
Average Volume (3M)10.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth1.45%
EPS Growth77.50%
CountryHK
Employees8,682
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.02
Shares Outstanding2,539,598,600
10 Day Avg. Volume9,254,273
30 Day Avg. Volume10,185,150
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.84
Price to Book (P/B)0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio23.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$10.01Price Target Upside63.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$127.38B
Greentown China Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Greentown China Holdings Limited operates as an investment holding company with a primary focus on real estate development and associated ventures across mainland China. Its operations are strategically divided into distinct segments: Property Dev...
How the Company Makes Money
Greentown China Holdings primarily makes money through (1) property development revenue, which is generated by selling completed (or pre-sold) residential units and related properties; recognized as revenue when the company meets applicable accoun...
Greentown China Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 141.08B | 154.97B | 158.55B | 131.38B | 127.15B | 100.24B |
| Gross Profit | 15.70B | 18.47B | 20.23B | 17.07B | 22.02B | 18.17B |
| EBITDA | 7.04B | 10.04B | 12.17B | 13.42B | 14.42B | 15.47B |
| Net Income | -57.20M | 70.99M | 1.60B | 3.12B | 2.76B | 4.47B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 444.78B | 450.05B | 507.78B | 535.54B | 535.08B | 521.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.85B | 63.26B | 68.86B | 69.80B | 66.44B | 68.45B |
| Total Debt | 131.18B | 133.91B | 137.70B | 146.72B | 137.88B | 124.30B |
| Total Liabilities | 336.81B | 344.29B | 394.30B | 421.60B | 423.66B | 413.40B |
| Stockholders Equity | 35.08B | 35.20B | 36.33B | 36.13B | 37.55B | 45.44B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 18.12B | 807.10M | 28.47B | 22.61B | 14.20B | 5.36B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 18.57B | 1.15B | 28.83B | 22.97B | 14.59B | 5.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.00B | -6.73B | -14.42B | -19.11B | -20.87B | -30.72B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -13.37B | -3.78B | -15.17B | -423.13M | 4.18B | 33.82B |
Greentown China Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
6.12
Price Trends
6.23
Negative
6.77
Negative
8.29
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Positive
41.03
Neutral
40.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:3900, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.91, below the 50-day MA of 6.23, and below the 200-day MA of 8.29, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:3900.
Greentown China Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
57 Neutral | HK$25.64B | 23.88 | 1.00% | 7.64% | -21.69% | 68.31% | |
47 Neutral | HK$14.04B | -208.55 | -0.16% | 5.93% | 1.45% | 77.50% | |
47 Neutral | HK$31.39B | -96.20 | -0.14% | 4.16% | -41.83% | -102.04% | |
44 Neutral | HK$41.32B | -0.45 | -79.94% | 7.60% | -35.13% | -45.10% | |
44 Neutral | HK$10.13B | 87.07 | 1.01% | 6.38% | -35.42% | 49.70% | |
40 Underperform | HK$10.01B | 83.81 | 0.13% | 5.05% | -53.18% | -9927.94% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
HK:3900
Greentown China Holdings
5.53
-2.77
-33.37%
HK:2202
China Vanke Co
2.16
-2.25
-51.02%
HK:0683
Kerry Properties
17.67
-0.65
-3.56%
HK:0960
Longfor Group Holdings
4.54
-4.99
-52.39%
HK:0754
Hopson Development Holdings Limited
2.64
-0.51
-16.22%
HK:1030
Seazen Group Ltd.
1.40
-0.79
-36.07%
Greentown China Holdings Corporate Events
Greentown China Posts RMB142 Billion in Nine-Month Contracted Sales
Oct 7, 2026
Greentown China reported unaudited operating data for the nine months to 30 September 2026, highlighting solid sales momentum in both its self-investment and project management segments. The group sold 1,547 units in September with monthly sales o...
Greentown China Posts RMB122.8 Billion in Unaudited Sales Over Eight Months
Sep 4, 2026
Greentown China Holdings reported unaudited operating data for the eight months to 31 August 2026, highlighting steady sales momentum in both its self-investment developments and project management business. The group sold 1,468 units in August al...
Greentown China Maintains Strong Liquidity and Sales Amid Profit Slump in First-Half 2026
Aug 25, 2026
Greentown China Holdings Limited, a leading Hong Kong-listed mainland property developer, reported interim results that highlight both its scale and cautious financial posture in China’s embattled real estate sector. The Group’s operat...
Greentown China Sets August Board Meeting to Approve Interim Results
Aug 11, 2026
Greentown China Holdings has scheduled a board meeting for 25 August 2026 to review and approve the interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The board will also consider the payment of an interim dividend and address other business m...
Greentown China Flags Sharp Interim Profit Drop Amid Market Adjustment
Aug 9, 2026
Greentown China Holdings warned that net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2026 is expected to fall sharply to about RMB50 million to RMB100 million from RMB210 million a year earlier. The decline is driven by lower revenue...
Greentown China Posts RMB107 Billion in Unaudited Sales for First Seven Months of 2026
Aug 6, 2026
Greentown China reported unaudited operating data for the seven months to 31 July 2026, highlighting steady sales momentum in a challenging property market. The group sold 1,228 units of self-investment projects in July, covering about 170,000 squ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.