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China Vanke Co (2202) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:2202

China Vanke Co

(HKEX:2202)

Select Model
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:HKD 2.00â–¼(-7.19% Downside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/31/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance, including sustained large losses, declining revenue, and high leverage, with only limited relief from recently positive but modest cash flow. Technicals also remain bearish (price below key moving averages, negative MACD), despite oversold signals. Valuation contributes only modestly because negative earnings make P/E less informative and no dividend yield is available.

Positive Factors
Recent Positive Cash FlowPositive operating and free cash flow provide some internal funding for ongoing operations and project commitments. Although coverage remains weak and cash flow has been volatile, the improvement from 2025 offers a useful foundation for financial stabilization over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Sustained Loss-Making ProfileDeeply negative margins indicate that current revenue is not translating into sustainable earnings. The shift from profits to large losses weakens retained capital, limits reinvestment capacity, and makes recovery dependent on restoring project profitability rather than merely maintaining sales.

China Vanke Co (2202) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%HK:2202-50.00%EWH+7.37%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
HKD 5.77B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
34.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-0.4
Beta (1Y)
0.96
Revenue Growth
-35.13%
EPS Growth
-45.10%
Country
Hong Kong
Employees
131,429
Sector
Real Estate
Sector Strength
65
Industry
Real Estate - Development

China Vanke Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

China Vanke Co., Ltd. is a prominent real estate firm that focuses on property development and sales in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and various international locations. The company primarily operates through two segments: Property Development and Prop...

How the Company Makes Money

Vanke primarily generates revenue from real-estate development by selling completed (and in some cases pre-sold) residential units and related property products to homebuyers; this typically represents the largest share of its revenue and is driven b...

China Vanke Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are severely pressured: revenue is down about 10% TTM and profitability is deeply negative (net margin roughly -48%), reflecting a shift from profits (2021–2023) to large losses (2024–TTM 2026). Balance sheet risk is elevated with high leverage (debt-to-equity about 3.6x) and very weak shareholder returns (ROE around -80%). Cash flow has improved to positive operating and free cash flow TTM, but remains modest versus the scale of losses and has been volatile.

Income Statement

14Very Negative

Balance Sheet

24Negative

Cash Flow

33Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue176.24B233.43B343.18B465.74B503.84B452.80B
Gross Profit1.33B22.09B34.91B67.47B98.52B98.82B
EBITDA-55.50B-55.07B-44.74B43.73B55.55B67.04B
Net Income-84.45B-88.56B-49.48B12.16B37.55B38.07B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets932.80B1.02T1.29T1.50T1.76T1.94T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments52.47B67.31B88.34B99.83B137.23B149.37B
Total Debt170.24B209.21B235.87B278.34B339.71B294.00B
Total Liabilities727.23B784.76B947.41B1.10T1.35T1.55T
Stockholders Equity93.09B116.91B202.67B250.78B242.69B235.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.19B-4.18B-719.76M-4.42B-10.08B-5.46B
Operating Cash Flow2.62B-988.13M3.80B3.91B2.75B4.11B
Investing Cash Flow2.72B3.69B10.81B-4.62B-13.03B-26.28B
Financing Cash Flow-18.65B-24.92B-27.67B-36.81B3.44B-23.10B

China Vanke Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price2.15

Price Trends

50DMA2.43Negative
100DMA2.42Negative
200DMA2.84Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.08Positive
RSI34.67Neutral
STOCH3.97Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2202, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.44, below the 50-day MA of 2.43, and below the 200-day MA of 2.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.97 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2202.

China Vanke Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

HK:2202 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
HK:1113HK:111375OutperformHKD 161.55B12.213.39%3.90%47.69%16.48%
HK:0016HK:001670OutperformHKD 315.57B14.723.41%3.47%17.33%11.15%
Sector *65Neutral$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
HK:0688HK:068863NeutralHKD 138.89B10.662.82%3.78%4.14%-16.76%
HK:1109HK:110963NeutralHKD 217.21B7.888.04%4.40%-11.74%-11.38%
HK:0960HK:096045NeutralHKD 31.39B-96.00-0.14%4.16%-41.83%-102.04%
HK:2202HK:220244NeutralHKD 41.32B-0.45-79.94%―-35.13%-45.10%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%-25%0%25%50%HK:2202HK:0688HK:1113HK:1109HK:0960HK:0016Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
HK:2202 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
HK:2202China Vanke2.15-2.25-51.02%
HK:0688China Overseas Land & Investment 12.690.050.44%
HK:1113CK Asset Holdings46.168.4822.51%
HK:1109China Resources Land 30.463.1011.33%
HK:0960Longfor Group Holdings 4.54-5.07-52.79%
HK:0016Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited108.9015.7816.94%

China Vanke Co Corporate Events

China Vanke narrows loss as revenue plunges in Q3 2026

Oct 29, 2026

China Vanke reported unaudited results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2026, prepared under IFRS and released as inside information under Hong Kong listing rules. The board and senior management affirmed the accuracy of the data, notin...

China Vanke Sets Late-October Board Meeting to Approve Q3 and Nine-Month Results

Oct 15, 2026

China Vanke Co., Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for 29 October 2026 in Shenzhen to review and approve the quarterly results of the company and its subsidiaries for the three and nine months ended 30 September 2026. The board will also consider th...

China Vanke Publishes Unaudited Interim Results for First Half of 2026

Aug 27, 2026

China Vanke has released its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026, prepared in accordance with IAS 34 and reviewed by Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu under ISRE 2410. The full interim report will be made available online in Septem...

China Vanke Board Approves 2026 Interim Results, Withholds Mid-Year Dividend

Aug 27, 2026

China Vanke’s board held its second meeting of the twenty-first session on 27 August 2026 in Shenzhen, with all 11 directors participating either in person or via electronic means, and confirmed that the meeting complied with PRC company law an...

China Vanke Sets Late-August Board Meeting to Approve Interim Results

Aug 13, 2026

China Vanke has scheduled a board meeting for 27 August 2026 to review and approve the interim results of the company and its subsidiaries for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The planned meeting signals the forthcoming release of mid-year financia...

China Vanke Confirms 2026 EGM Results and Forms New Board Session

Jul 31, 2026

China Vanke Co., Ltd. announced that its first extraordinary general meeting of 2026 was duly convened in Shenzhen on 31 July, with both on-site and A-share online voting used to pass resolutions related to corporate governance. The meeting was organ...

China Vanke Reshapes Board Leadership and Committees in New Session

Jul 31, 2026

China Vanke’s board convened its first meeting of the twenty-first session on 31 July 2026 in Shenzhen following the extraordinary general meeting, confirming compliance with PRC company law and Hong Kong listing rules. The meeting marked a tra...

China Vanke Details Board Composition and Governance Committees

Jul 31, 2026

China Vanke Co., Ltd., a major Chinese property developer listed in Hong Kong, has a diversified board structure that includes executive, non-executive and independent non-executive directors. The company operates under PRC corporate law as a joint s...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026