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Guangzhou Automobile Group Co (2238) AI Stock Analysis

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HK:2238

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co

(HKEX:2238)

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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:HKD 2.00â–²(3.36% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/01/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—loss-making profitability and negative operating/free cash flow—alongside rising leverage. Technical indicators provide partial support with improving momentum versus key short- and mid-term moving averages, while valuation is mixed due to a negative P/E (loss-driven) and only a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Recent Revenue ReboundThe 24.5% TTM revenue rebound indicates that demand or sales execution has recovered meaningfully from the prior period. If maintained, stronger top-line scale could improve operating leverage, support investment in vehicle offerings, and provide a foundation for restoring profitability over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Severe Profitability DeteriorationThe return to losses is a major fundamental weakness because revenue growth is not currently converting into viable earnings. Negative gross profit and operating profitability suggest pricing, product mix, or cost pressures are overwhelming scale benefits, leaving profitability recovery dependent on sustained operational improvement.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co (2238) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)

-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%HK:2238-40.09%EWH+7.37%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
HKD 4.81B
Dividend Yield
2.82%
Average Volume (3M)
15.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
-4.4
Beta (1Y)
0.79
Revenue Growth
-0.41%
EPS Growth
-238.61%
Country
Hong Kong
Employees
82,067
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Auto - Manufacturers

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., or GAC Group, is a diversified automotive conglomerate established in 1997 and headquartered in Guangzhou, People's Republic of China. A subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group Co., Ltd., GAC Group, alo...

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are pressured: the income statement reflects a return to losses (negative gross profit and ~-10.7% net margin TTM) despite a +24.5% TTM revenue rebound, and cash flow is weak with negative operating cash flow (~-11.4B) and materially negative free cash flow (~-20.1B). The balance sheet is comparatively more stable (equity ~100.4B vs. debt ~51.5B) but leverage has risen sharply (debt-to-equity ~0.68 TTM), reducing flexibility while losses persist.

Income Statement

28Negative

Balance Sheet

56Neutral

Cash Flow

22Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue117.52B94.04B107.78B129.71B110.01B75.68B
Gross Profit-6.94B-5.28B7.18B9.76B8.22B6.41B
EBITDA-8.81B-7.09B8.51B10.42B14.38B13.31B
Net Income-12.98B-8.56B823.58M4.43B8.06B7.33B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets231.61B215.09B232.46B218.39B190.02B154.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments64.44B55.29B54.18B56.01B43.74B27.26B
Total Debt51.49B40.00B29.82B22.06B20.61B17.28B
Total Liabilities127.30B105.30B110.68B93.99B67.77B61.60B
Stockholders Equity100.44B105.33B114.35B115.72B113.23B90.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-20.08B-23.99B59.36M-4.85B-13.36B-11.83B
Operating Cash Flow-11.36B-15.03B10.92B6.73B-5.35B-5.59B
Investing Cash Flow2.82B-5.64B-11.75B-2.47B-3.83B1.65B
Financing Cash Flow17.19B5.52B2.21B4.07B24.28B72.84M

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price1.94

Price Trends

50DMA2.22Negative
100DMA2.23Negative
200DMA2.75Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.09Positive
RSI31.72Neutral
STOCH3.88Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2238, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.94 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.14, below the 50-day MA of 2.22, and below the 200-day MA of 2.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.88 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:2238.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

HK:2238 against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
HK:9973HK:997370OutperformHKD 133.25B5.8533.66%4.29%――
HK:0175HK:017570OutperformHKD 150.15B7.6317.21%3.61%27.19%3.59%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
HK:2333HK:233357NeutralHKD 118.39B19.755.80%6.20%13.25%-51.39%
HK:2238HK:223852NeutralHKD 46.09B-4.42-11.24%2.82%-0.41%-238.61%
HK:1211HK:121151NeutralHKD 719.87B23.5313.09%0.60%0.29%-15.06%
HK:2015HK:201538UnderperformHKD 87.94B-16.04-6.52%―-24.50%-159.09%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-40%-20%0%20%40%HK:2238HK:1211HK:0175HK:2333HK:2015HK:9973Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
HK:2238 and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
HK:2238Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Class H1.94-1.31-40.46%
HK:1211BYD (BYDDF)68.25-30.38-30.80%
HK:0175Geely Automobile13.84-3.47-20.05%
HK:2333Great Wall Motor Co Class H6.49-7.96-55.08%
HK:2015Li Auto, Inc. Class A42.86-38.04-47.02%
HK:9973Chery Automobile Co.,Ltd.22.94-8.22-26.38%

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co Corporate Events

Guangzhou Automobile Group Posts Higher Sales but Deeper Losses in Q3 2026

Oct 30, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group reported a sharp deterioration in profitability for the third quarter of 2026 despite double‑digit revenue growth, with net profit attributable to shareholders falling steeply and basic earnings per share turning more...

Guangzhou Automobile Group Advances FAW Toyota Stake Acquisition Via Share Issuance

Oct 30, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group has moved forward with a major related-party transaction to deepen its footprint in joint-venture passenger cars, agreeing to acquire by share issuance a 50% equity stake in FAW Toyota Motor Co., Ltd. from FAW Group. The de...

Guangzhou Automobile Group Sets Board Meeting to Approve Q3 2026 Results

Oct 20, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. has scheduled a board meeting for 30 October 2026 to review and approve its unaudited third-quarter results for the nine months ended 30 September 2026, prepared under PRC Generally Accepted Accounting Principles....

Guangzhou Automobile Group Sees September Car Output Slump as EV Sales Surge

Oct 9, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group reported a sharp decline in overall vehicle production and sales for September 2026, with monthly output down 24.01% to 136,150 units and sales falling 25.72% to 128,634 units, while year-to-date production and sales slippe...

Guangzhou Automobile Group to Acquire 50% of FAW Toyota via Share Issuance

Sep 28, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group plans to acquire a 50% equity stake in FAW Toyota by issuing new A shares as consideration, which will make FAW Toyota a principal jointly controlled entity alongside Toyota Motor Group while keeping its financials unconsol...

GAC Group Moves to Acquire FAW JV Stake and Suspends A-Share Trading

Sep 18, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. is a major Chinese automotive manufacturer listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong, engaged in vehicle production through various joint ventures and partnerships across the domestic auto market. The group operates as a k...

Guangzhou Automobile Plans Major Asset Reorganisation With FAW Group

Sep 14, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group has signed an agreement of intent with FAW Group to acquire part of FAW’s equity in an automobile manufacturing joint venture, funding the deal through an issuance of A shares. The restructuring is designed to optimiz...

Guangzhou Automobile Group Halts Hong Kong Trading Pending Inside Information

Sep 14, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group announced that trading in its shares on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has been halted from 9:30 a.m. on Monday, 14 September 2026 at the company’s own request. The suspension comes as the automaker pr...

Guangzhou Automobile Group Sees EV Surge Amid Mixed August Vehicle Sales

Sep 4, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group reported August 2026 vehicle production of 126,727 units, down 1.18% year-on-year, with year-to-date output falling 2.99% to 1,026,789 units. Sales in August reached 126,584 units, a 6.71% annual decline, though cumulative...

Guangzhou Automobile Group’s Interim Loss Widens Despite Revenue Growth

Aug 28, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group reported unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026 showing revenue of RMB 46.5 billion, up from RMB 42.6 billion a year earlier, but the company remained loss-making. The period saw a widened net loss...

Guangzhou Automobile Group Sets Board Meeting to Review 2026 Interim Results

Aug 17, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group has scheduled a board meeting for 28 August 2026 to review and approve the interim results for the first half of 2026. The board will also consider the potential declaration of an interim dividend, signaling attention to sh...

GAC July Output Falls as New Energy Vehicle Sales Surge

Aug 4, 2026

Guangzhou Automobile Group reported a sharp year-on-year decline in July 2026 vehicle production to 103,284 units and a smaller drop in monthly sales to 112,934 units, with cumulative output for the year down 3.24% but sales up 1.28%. The figures hig...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 01, 2026