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ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A
(2057)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
HK$181.00
▲(10.03% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/21/26
The score is primarily supported by strong underlying financial performance and an attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Offsetting these positives, technical indicators are decisively weak with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative momentum, which materially reduces the overall score.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Strong revenue and earnings growth indicate continued parcel demand and effective operating leverage. Sustained expansion can improve network utilization and reinforce ZTO’s ability to spread logistics infrastructure costs across a larger volume base.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
The margin step-down suggests rising costs, pricing pressure, or a tougher competitive environment. If it persists, lower profitability could limit the benefit of parcel growth and reduce funds available for technology, capacity, and service improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Strong revenue and earnings growth indicate continued parcel demand and effective operating leverage. Sustained expansion can improve network utilization and reinforce ZTO’s ability to spread logistics infrastructure costs across a larger volume base.
Read all positive factors
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$123.05B
Dividend Yield3.33%
Average Volume (3M)1.51M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.6
Beta (1Y)0.71
Revenue Growth21.24%
EPS Growth25.73%
CountryHK
Employees23,399
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIntegrated Freight & Logistics
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.09
Shares Outstanding557,330,930
10 Day Avg. Volume1,544,401
30 Day Avg. Volume1,514,291
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio10.28
Price to Book (P/B)1.75
Price to Sales (P/S)2.43
P/FCF Ratio17.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$215.91Price Target Upside31.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)15.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$67.14B
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as a prominent logistics provider within the People's Republic of China, specializing in rapid parcel delivery and a variety of supplementary value-added services. The company caters to a diverse clientele, encom...
How the Company Makes Money
ZTO Express primarily makes money by charging for express delivery services within its logistics network. Its revenue model is built around parcel volumes and service fees tied to moving packages from origin to destination. Key revenue streams inc...
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced notable operational and strategic positives — robust parcel volume growth, significant retail mix expansion, meaningful cash-flow strength, productivity gains from AI and tech, and an enhanced shareholder-return program — against margin and profit compression driven by rising costs (especially KA costs) and industry-wide transition risks. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (10%–13% parcel growth) and concrete network-support measures (RMB 200 million incentive fund) while emphasizing quality-focused execution.Positive Updates
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% YoY; full-year parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% YoY. Market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points as ZTO maintained industry-leading service quality while the industry hit ~200 billion parcels (+13.6% industry growth in 2025).
Negative Updates
Decline in Gross Profit and Margins
Gross profit declined 2.1% YoY to RMB 3.7 billion in Q4 and declined 10.5% YoY to RMB 12.3 billion for the year. Gross profit margin fell 3.7 percentage points in Q4 to 25.4% and fell 6.0 percentage points for the full year to 25.0%.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Volume Growth and Market Share Expansion
Q4 parcel volume reached 10.56 billion, up 9.2% YoY; full-year parcel volume was 38.5 billion, up 13.3% YoY. Market share expanded by 0.8 percentage points as ZTO maintained industry-leading service quality while the industry hit ~200 billion parcels (+13.6% industry growth in 2025).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 the company guided parcel volume growth of 10%–13% year‑over‑year, implying annual volume of about 42.37–43.52 billion parcels (vs. Postal Bureau’s ~8% industry estimate) and reiterated its goal to grow faster than the industry average; on capital allocation the Board approved a semi‑annual cash dividend of USD 0.39 per ADS (under the established 40% payout ratio), authorized a new 24‑month $1.5 billion share‑buyback program through March 2028, and launched an enhanced shareholder‑return target of aggregate annual returns of no less than 50% of prior‑year adjusted net income (2025 adjusted net income was RMB 9.5 billion, implying ~RMB 4.75 billion if based on 2025 results); the company also issued $1.5 billion five‑year convertible bonds (net ≈ $1.4 billion) to fund buybacks, has completed ≈$600 million of repurchases to date and plans to repurchase the remaining ≈$800 million over the next year.ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 53.75B | 47.83B | 44.28B | 38.42B | 35.38B | 30.41B |
| Gross Profit | 13.49B | 11.95B | 13.72B | 11.66B | 9.04B | 6.59B |
| EBITDA | 14.78B | 12.68B | 15.04B | 13.85B | 10.41B | 8.09B |
| Net Income | 10.23B | 8.85B | 8.82B | 8.75B | 6.81B | 4.75B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 98.73B | 91.06B | 92.34B | 88.47B | 78.52B | 62.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.35B | 25.67B | 22.31B | 19.89B | 17.58B | 12.72B |
| Total Debt | 22.04B | 11.48B | 17.35B | 15.44B | 13.12B | 4.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 35.00B | 23.90B | 29.67B | 28.18B | 24.05B | 13.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 63.64B | 66.41B | 62.06B | 59.80B | 54.03B | 48.64B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.01B | 6.58B | 5.53B | 6.69B | 4.07B | -2.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.82B | 11.66B | 11.43B | 13.36B | 11.48B | 7.22B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.33B | -4.69B | -5.98B | -12.25B | -16.04B | -8.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -6.67B | -10.30B | -5.00B | -769.84M | 7.06B | -2.90B |
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Risk Analysis
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A disclosed 95 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We are a "controlled company" within the meaning of the NYSE Listed Company Manual and, as a result, may rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements that provide protection to shareholders of other companies. Q4, 2023
2.
Conversion of our convertible senior notes may dilute the ownership interest of the existing shareholders. Q4, 2023
3.
Provisions of our convertible senior notes could discourage an acquisition of us by a third-party. Q4, 2023
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | HK$175.65B | 14.34 | 10.86% | 3.59% | 10.46% | -0.16% | |
67 Neutral | HK$123.05B | 10.59 | 15.95% | 3.33% | 21.24% | 25.73% | |
67 Neutral | HK$48.72B | 12.22 | 9.26% | 7.33% | -3.80% | 0.22% | |
67 Neutral | HK$71.26B | 7.94 | 12.78% | ― | 29.20% | 16.27% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | HK$90.77B | 28.21 | 9.69% | ― | 31.91% | 122.59% | |
49 Neutral | HK$463.97M | -3.29 | -14.50% | 1.48% | 5.28% | -148.69% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HK:2057
ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A
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ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Corporate Events
ZTO Express Warns Investors as It Posts Unaudited Q2 2026 Results
Aug 18, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has released its unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, prepared under U.S. GAAP rather than International Financial Reporting Standards and published in line with both U.S. and Hong Kong ...
ZTO Express Delivers Strong Interim Profit Growth on Higher Revenues
Aug 18, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is a major player in China’s express delivery and logistics sector, offering parcel transport and related services while maintaining a weighted voting rights share structure and listing its American depositary share...
ZTO Express Sets Out Board Lineup and Committee Roles
Aug 18, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has detailed the current composition of its board of directors, naming three executive directors, one non-executive director and four independent non-executive directors. The structure underscores a blend of management an...
ZTO Express Sets August Board Meeting to Approve Interim 2026 Results
Jul 23, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has scheduled a board meeting for August 18, 2026, in Beijing to review and approve its unaudited financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2026, along with considering a potential dividend declaration. T...
ZTO to Take Full Control of TuXi Tech in RMB1.3 Billion Connected Deal
Jun 22, 2026
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., through a wholly owned subsidiary, has moved to acquire the remaining 36.20% stake in its non-wholly owned subsidiary TuXi Tech for about RMB1.31 billion, at RMB2.30 per share, which will make TuXi Tech a wholly owned su...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.