ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A (2057) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$116.67B
• Dividend Yield: 3.54%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: 13.97%
• EPS Growth: 2.03%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 24,477
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics
• EPS (TTM): 2.58
• Shares Outstanding: 598,368,470
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,353,918
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,711,855
• PEG Ratio: 11.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.89
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.18
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: HK$184.48
• Price Target Upside: 29.37% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: HK$158.00 ▲(10.80% Upside)

ZTO Express is financially robust with strong profitability and a well-managed balance sheet. However, the decline in free cash flow growth and short-term bearish technical indicators suggest caution. The stock is fairly valued with a reasonable P/E ratio and an attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates ZTO Express's ability to expand its market presence and capture more business in the e-commerce sector, supporting long-term business sustainability.

Balance Sheet Health

A low debt-to-equity ratio reflects prudent financial management, providing ZTO Express with financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and withstand economic downturns.

Profitability Margins

Strong profitability margins suggest efficient operations and cost management, which are critical for sustaining competitive advantage and long-term financial health.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow growth can limit ZTO Express's ability to fund new initiatives or return capital to shareholders, potentially impacting future growth and shareholder value.

Margin Pressure

Declining margins may indicate rising costs or pricing pressures, which could erode profitability if not managed effectively, affecting long-term financial performance.

Cash Flow Conversion Challenges

Challenges in converting income into free cash flow may hinder ZTO Express's ability to reinvest in the business or manage financial obligations, impacting long-term operational flexibility.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers delivery services for e-commerce and traditional merchants, and other express service users. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of approximately 10,900 trucks. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes Money

ZTO Express makes money through multiple revenue streams, primarily driven by its core express delivery services, which cater to the booming e-commerce industry in China. The company charges customers for parcel delivery services based on package weight, distance, and delivery speed. Additional revenue comes from value-added services, including warehousing, freight forwarding, and cross-border logistics solutions. ZTO Express also benefits from strategic partnerships with major e-commerce platforms, which provide a steady stream of parcel volume. Furthermore, the company's expansive network and operational efficiency help in managing costs, thereby enhancing profitability.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ZTO Express shows strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and robust profitability margins. The balance sheet is well-managed with low leverage and a strong equity base. However, the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern, indicating potential challenges in cash flow conversion.

Income Statement

ZTO Express has demonstrated consistent revenue growth with a TTM growth rate of 2.45%. The company maintains strong profitability with a gross profit margin of 27.48% and a net profit margin of 18.81% in the TTM. However, there is a slight decline in margins compared to the previous year, indicating potential pressure on profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is robust with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.29, indicating prudent financial leverage. Return on equity is healthy at 13.99%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 67.85%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is mixed, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -40.72% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.20, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased to 0.22, highlighting potential challenges in converting income into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	46.32B	44.28B	38.42B	35.38B	30.41B	25.21B
Gross Profit	12.73B	13.72B	11.66B	9.04B	6.59B	5.84B
EBITDA	14.53B	15.04B	13.85B	10.41B	7.72B	6.59B
Net Income	8.71B	8.82B	8.75B	6.81B	4.75B	4.31B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	94.62B	92.34B	88.47B	78.52B	62.77B	59.20B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	26.52B	22.31B	19.89B	17.58B	12.72B	17.90B
Total Debt	18.87B	17.35B	15.44B	13.12B	4.44B	2.51B
Total Liabilities	29.76B	29.67B	28.18B	24.05B	13.84B	10.11B
Stockholders Equity	64.20B	62.06B	59.80B	54.03B	48.64B	48.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.32B	5.53B	6.69B	4.07B	-2.11B	-4.26B
Operating Cash Flow	10.45B	11.43B	13.36B	11.48B	7.22B	4.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-3.26B	-5.98B	-12.25B	-16.04B	-8.76B	-3.55B
Financing Cash Flow	-4.40B	-5.00B	-769.84M	7.06B	-2.90B	8.34B

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 142.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:2057, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 142.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 146.80, below the 50-day MA of 145.44, and below the 200-day MA of 145.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:2057.

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
0598	―	$45.91B	9.07	9.44%	5.92%	-17.69%	-3.38%
2057	―	HK$116.67B	12.52	13.91%	3.54%	13.97%	2.03%
2618	―	HK$83.92B	11.61	12.40%	―	11.05%	81.01%
2490	―	HK$4.05B	7.51	37.50%	6.06%	56.58%	1963.38%
Sector *	―	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
1519	―	HK$88.88B	70.11	5.53%	―	12.14%	―
0636	―	HK$13.12B	9.52	8.51%	3.62%	26.36%	-18.67%

ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A Corporate Events

ZTO Express Amends Tender Offer for Convertible Notes

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced an amendment to its tender offer statement concerning the 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This move highlights the company’s ongoing financial strategies and obligations to its noteholders, potentially impacting its financial positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$181.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

ZTO Express Releases 2025 Q2 Financial Results Amid Market Caution

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has announced its unaudited financial results for the second quarter of 2025, prepared in accordance with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. The announcement highlights potential risks associated with investing in a company with a weighted voting rights structure and underscores the company’s reliance on the e-commerce and express delivery industries in China. Stakeholders are advised to exercise caution due to inherent risks and uncertainties in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

ZTO Express Reports Revenue Growth Amid Profit Decline in H1 2025

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced its unaudited interim consolidated results for the first half of 2025, showing a 9.8% increase in revenues compared to the same period in 2024. However, the company experienced a decline in gross profit and net income, with adjusted net income attributable to ordinary shareholders decreasing by 15.3%, reflecting challenges in managing costs and maintaining profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

ZTO Express Announces Interim Dividend for 2025

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. announced an interim ordinary cash dividend of USD 0.3 per share for the six months ending June 30, 2025. The dividend will be paid on October 24, 2025, with the record date set for September 30, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s financial strategy and commitment to returning value to its shareholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.

ZTO Express Announces Upcoming Financial Results and Conference Call

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has announced a board meeting scheduled for August 19, 2025, to approve and publish its unaudited financial results for the second quarter and the first half of 2025. The company will release these results on August 20, 2025, before the trading hours of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and will host an earnings conference call to discuss the financial performance, which could impact investor perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:2057) stock is a Buy with a HK$234.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ZTO Express (Cayman), Inc. Class A stock, see the HK:2057 Stock Forecast page.