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Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.
(1638)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
HK$0.02
▼(-80.00% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/08/26
The score is held down primarily by stressed financial performance (high leverage including recent negative equity, weak/volatile operating results, and questionable earnings cash conversion) and bearish technicals (price below all major moving averages with negative MACD). The very low P/E provides only limited support given the stated concerns around earnings quality and sustainability.
Positive Factors
Debt Reduction
The sharp reduction in total debt during 2025 is a constructive step toward stabilizing the capital structure. If maintained, further deleveraging could reduce financing pressure, improve resilience, and give management more flexibility to preserve assets and fund essential development activity.
Negative Factors
Shrinking Revenue Base
The substantial contraction in revenue shows that Kaisa is operating on a much smaller scale than in 2020. A reduced operating base can weaken fixed-cost absorption, limit development capacity, and make future earnings more dependent on a small number of projects or transactions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Debt Reduction
The sharp reduction in total debt during 2025 is a constructive step toward stabilizing the capital structure. If maintained, further deleveraging could reduce financing pressure, improve resilience, and give management more flexibility to preserve assets and fund essential development activity.
Read all positive factors
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (1638) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$266.14M
Dividend Yield13.91%
Average Volume (3M)69.64M
Price to Earnings (P/E)<0.1
Beta (1Y)1.52
Revenue Growth-16.73%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryHK
Employees14,789
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.97
Shares Outstanding12,673,184,000
10 Day Avg. Volume153,168,118
30 Day Avg. Volume69,638,859
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio0.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. functions as an investment holding company primarily dedicated to real estate development, property investment, and asset management throughout the People's Republic of China. The firm constructs a wide variety of propert...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaisa Group historically makes money primarily through property development activities, where revenue is recognized from the sale of properties (e.g., residential units, commercial units, parking spaces) to end-buyers and investors. This typically...
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.00B | 9.50B | 11.56B | 26.16B | 25.39B | 35.54B |
| Gross Profit | 1.75B | 451.84M | -11.06B | 1.70B | 1.70B | -1.65B |
| EBITDA | 55.03B | 55.83B | -18.70B | -16.52B | -10.70B | -11.19B |
| Net Income | 53.26B | 52.55B | -28.53B | -19.93B | -13.06B | -12.73B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 177.13B | 184.15B | 210.68B | 232.82B | 264.34B | 290.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.56B | 1.12B | 1.61B | 1.96B | 2.97B | 7.69B |
| Total Debt | 85.10B | 48.78B | 135.64B | 134.20B | 134.76B | 132.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 166.55B | 164.70B | 242.42B | 225.10B | 229.10B | 231.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.11B | 10.92B | -40.58B | -12.05B | 7.86B | 21.03B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -175.75M | 763.94M | -315.23M | -435.72M | -6.33B | -22.49B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -126.71M | 836.98M | -124.81M | -359.18M | -6.26B | -21.85B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 341.88M | 227.91M | 982.51M | -604.37M | 2.02B | -13.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.16B | -1.35B | -1.13B | -199.14M | 3.17B | 2.05B |
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.10
Price Trends
0.04
Negative
0.04
Negative
0.06
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
27.44
Positive
16.67
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1638, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.03, above the 50-day MA of 0.04, and above the 200-day MA of 0.06, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.44 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.67 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1638.
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
47 Neutral | HK$15.34B | -227.61 | -0.16% | 5.47% | 1.45% | 77.50% | |
46 Neutral | HK$389.47M | -0.08 | -330.41% | 17.32% | -48.10% | -106.59% | |
45 Neutral | HK$918.38M | -0.03 | 117.21% | 13.13% | -27.68% | -54.58% | |
45 Neutral | HK$745.27M | -0.17 | -14.48% | 11.78% | -22.15% | 32.63% | |
43 Neutral | HK$266.14M | <0.01 | 817.88% | 13.91% | -16.73% | ― | |
43 Neutral | HK$848.03M | -0.04 | 256.28% | 119.11% | 38.77% | 7.00% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
HK:1638
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.
0.02
-0.12
-84.56%
HK:3383
Agile Group Holdings
0.17
-0.22
-57.44%
HK:3900
Greentown China Holdings
6.00
-2.77
-31.58%
HK:2777
Guangzhou R&F Properties Co
0.22
-0.40
-64.35%
HK:1813
KWG Group Holdings
0.10
-0.16
-60.00%
HK:1238
Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd.
0.18
-0.12
-39.66%
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events
Kaisa’s Revenue Slumps but Sales Surge as Losses Persist in First Half 2026
Aug 31, 2026
Kaisa Group reported a sharp 40.6% drop in total revenue to RMB2.20 billion for the first half of 2026, underscoring ongoing pressure in its core property development operations. Despite this, gross profit rose 22.7% to RMB567.8 million and margin...
Kaisa flags narrowed but still hefty interim loss amid lower property impairments
Aug 24, 2026
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., a Chinese property developer listed in Hong Kong, operates through multiple subsidiaries with a core focus on real estate projects. Its performance is closely tied to the valuation and financial health of its property po...
Kaisa Group Sets August Board Meeting to Approve Interim Results
Aug 17, 2026
Kaisa Group Holdings has scheduled a board meeting for 31 August 2026 to review and approve the group’s interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The board will also consider whether to recommend an interim dividend, a decision ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.