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Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
(1398)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
HK$8.50
▲(13.64% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:10/31/26
The score reflects a mix of steady underlying financial strength and a supportive technical/valuation setup. The biggest supports are attractive valuation (low P/E and ~4.7% yield) and bullish price momentum above key moving averages. Offsetting these are mid-range fundamentals due to volatile revenue trends and rising leverage, plus earnings-call risks pointing to 2027 margin compression and higher risk-cost pressure despite currently stable NIM and improving asset-quality indicators.
Positive Factors
Resilient Profit Growth
Sustained growth in operating income and net profit shows that ICBC is preserving earnings momentum despite a mature banking market. This supports ongoing capital generation, investment in strategic businesses, and resilience across the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Structural Margin Pressure
Expected NIM narrowing could weaken the profitability of ICBC’s core intermediation business over the next several quarters. Fading repricing benefits and lower asset yields may limit earnings growth unless loan volumes, fee income, or operating efficiency offset the spread compression.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Resilient Profit Growth
Sustained growth in operating income and net profit shows that ICBC is preserving earnings momentum despite a mature banking market. This supports ongoing capital generation, investment in strategic businesses, and resilience across the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$3.47T
Dividend Yield4.71%
Average Volume (3M)162.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.6
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryHK
Employees409,758
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.05
Shares Outstanding86,794,050,000
10 Day Avg. Volume199,444,862
30 Day Avg. Volume162,896,737
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.19
Price to Book (P/B)0.51
Price to Sales (P/S)1.32
P/FCF Ratio4.92
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$7.76Price Target Upside3.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$884.44B
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (ICBC), together with its affiliated entities, functions as a leading financial institution, delivering a broad spectrum of banking products and services both within the People's Republic of China an...
How the Company Makes Money
ICBC primarily earns revenue by acting as a financial intermediary and service provider across banking and markets activities. Its largest recurring source of income is typically net interest income: it collects interest on loans and other interes...
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 31, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly constructive, supported by 9.2% operating income growth, 6% net profit growth, stable NIM, improving corporate asset quality, strong deposit growth, strategic credit expansion and continued shareholder returns. Management also highlighted meaningful pressures, including expected NIM narrowing next year, declining loan yields, structurally slower credit growth, retail and inclusive-finance risk, real estate-related NPL pressure, uncertainty around some non-interest income sources and limited near-term dilution from the planned private placement. Overall, the positive operating and asset-quality trends significantly outweighed the disclosed challenges.Positive Updates
Strong First Three-Quarter Profitability
Group operating income reached CNY 667.14 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year, while net profit reached CNY 288.28 billion, up 6% year-over-year. Management said earnings growth accelerated compared with the first half.
Negative Updates
Expected NIM Pressure Next Year
Management expects NIM to stabilize and find a bottom this year if policy rates remain stable, but said there would be slightly narrowing pressure next year. The benefit from lower liability costs is fading as the volume of high-rate time deposits maturing declines.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong First Three-Quarter Profitability
Group operating income reached CNY 667.14 billion, up 9.2% year-over-year, while net profit reached CNY 288.28 billion, up 6% year-over-year. Management said earnings growth accelerated compared with the first half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ICBC said that if policy rates remain stable, NIM is expected to stable and find a bottom this year with slightly narrowing pressure next year; the liability interest expense ratio fell 20 bps from the beginning of the year, while the positive contribution to next year margin is expected to diminish, and asset yields will face continued downward pressure next year. Full year loan growth is expected to be around 6%, consistently above the national average and GDP growth. At the end of Q3, maximum EVE change was 14.15%, with the capital injection expected to reduce it by 0.35 percentage points; Q4 government bond issuance is projected at CNY 3.8 trillion and local government bond issuance at CNY 2 trillion, with the market expected to broadly maintain a range bound pattern. The bank is confident in carrying forward steady performance in both operating revenue and net profit for the full year, while 2027 faces some narrowing pressure in NIM and risk cost face upward pressure. New RMB time-deposit rates were 1.15%, down 11 basis points Y-o-Y, and time deposits repricing volume is similar to that of this year. Retail risk is expected to remain manageable, business loan NPL ratio will remain stable, and overall asset quality indicators are expected to remain stable; eligible subsidized mortgage loans accounted for 30% of all new loans and 50% of all loans in numbers. The private placement is CNY 100 billion and, assuming completion on November 13, 2026, with a profit growth rate of 3% and dividend payout ratio increased to 31%, EPS will not be diluted if the impact applies only to December, while EPS will decline by 0.27% and ROE will decline by 2.48 percentage points if the issue share effect full year indicators; if 2026 attributed net profit growth reaches 3.3% year-on-year, the dilution of EPS can be fully offset.Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.05T | 1.53T | 660.39B | 656.94B | 663.15B | 658.26B |
| Gross Profit | 649.81B | 833.50B | 660.39B | 838.05B | 871.34B | 658.26B |
| EBITDA | 445.39B | 443.28B | 456.37B | 14.35B | 458.73B | 456.22B |
| Net Income | 372.28B | 359.02B | 365.86B | 363.99B | 361.13B | 348.34B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 57.06T | 53.50T | 48.82T | 44.70T | 39.61T | 35.17T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.52T | 4.74T | 6.97T | 5.30T | 4.74T | 4.19T |
| Total Debt | 11.85T | 10.28T | 2.60T | 1.90T | 912.97B | 1.28T |
| Total Liabilities | 52.95T | 49.50T | 44.83T | 40.92T | 36.09T | 31.90T |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.08T | 3.98T | 3.97T | 3.76T | 3.50T | 3.26T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -480.08B | 409.60B | 543.61B | 1.40T | 1.39T | 339.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -433.63B | 457.31B | 579.19B | 1.42T | 1.40T | 360.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.51T | -5.12T | -1.47T | -891.85B | -910.62B | -674.56B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.15T | 4.25T | 415.68B | 285.44B | -64.79B | -11.55B |
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Technical Analysis
Positive
7.48
Price Trends
7.44
Positive
7.14
Positive
6.75
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
65.52
Neutral
87.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1398, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.48 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.51, above the 50-day MA of 7.44, and above the 200-day MA of 6.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1398.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | HK$1.31T | 7.46 | 12.33% | 4.16% | -0.16% | 5.69% | |
74 Outperform | HK$2.45T | 8.65 | 8.41% | 4.16% | 2.02% | 1.80% | |
71 Outperform | HK$3.47T | 8.58 | 9.18% | 4.71% | ― | ― | |
71 Outperform | HK$3.03T | 9.01 | 9.73% | 4.35% | 4.19% | 7.85% | |
70 Outperform | HK$2.77T | 9.15 | 9.62% | 4.28% | 2.44% | 5.10% | |
68 Neutral | HK$720.43B | 8.04 | 8.44% | 4.38% | 1.86% | -7.09% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
HK:1398
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
7.90
2.18
38.15%
HK:1288
Agricultural Bank of China
6.94
1.31
23.36%
HK:3988
Bank of China
6.15
1.87
43.78%
HK:0939
China Construction Bank
10.26
2.75
36.53%
HK:3968
China Merchants Bank Co
54.55
7.18
15.16%
HK:1658
Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. Class H
5.62
0.32
5.98%
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Corporate Events
ICBC Board Approves Q3 2026 Report and Backs New Non‑Executive Director
Oct 30, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s board met in Beijing on 30 October 2026, with full attendance from its 13 directors and senior management, and approved the bank’s third-quarter report for 2026. The report, vetted by the audit...
ICBC Delivers Strong Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings and Expands Balance Sheet
Oct 30, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited reported strong financial performance for the third quarter of 2026, with operating income of RMB 220,974 million, up 9.45% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to equity holders of RMB 111,958 ...
ICBC Sets Teleconference to Present Q3 2026 Results to Global Investors
Oct 23, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited will disclose its third-quarter 2026 results on 30 October and hold an investor teleconference the same day from 17:30 to 18:30. The call will be accessible to both Chinese and English-speaking parti...
ICBC sets interim dividend and tax terms for 2026 H-shareholders
Oct 20, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has declared an interim ordinary dividend of RMB 1.511 per 10 shares for the six months ended 30 June 2026, with shareholder approval obtained on 29 September 2026. For H-share investors in Hong Kong, the de...
ICBC Schedules Board Meeting to Approve Nine-Month Results and Preference Share Dividends
Oct 20, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has scheduled a board meeting for 30 October 2026 to review and approve its financial results for the nine months ended 30 September 2026. The board will also consider matters related to the payment ...
ICBC Raises RMB60 Billion Through Tier 2 Bond Connect Issuance to Strengthen Capital
Oct 15, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has completed the issuance of its 2026 Tier 2 Capital Notes (Series 6) in China’s National Interbank Bond Market via Bond Connect. The offering, sized at RMB60 billion across two fixed-rate tra...
ICBC Reports Strong Shareholder Participation at 2026 Extraordinary Meeting
Sep 29, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reported the poll results of its Second Extraordinary Shareholders’ Meeting of 2026, held on 29 September at its Beijing head office. The meeting was convened and chaired by Chairman Liao Lin, with vot...
ICBC Sets Terms and Tax Treatment for 2026 Interim Dividend
Sep 29, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has declared an interim ordinary cash dividend of RMB 1.511 per 10 shares for the six months ended 30 June 2026, with payment scheduled for 25 November 2026 to shareholders on the Hong Kong register as of th...
ICBC Updates Timetable and Currency Details for 2026 Interim Dividend
Sep 10, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, listed in Hong Kong under stock code 01398, operates as a leading commercial bank offering comprehensive financial services to retail and corporate clients in China and internationally. Its shares a...
ICBC Completes RMB20 Billion Additional Tier 1 Bond Issuance to Boost Capital
Sep 10, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has completed the issuance of its 2026 Undated Additional Tier 1 Capital Bonds (Series 4) via Bond Connect in China’s National Interbank Bond Market. The book‑running took place on 8 Sept...
ICBC Calls Extraordinary Meeting to Approve New Share Issuance Mandate
Sep 10, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has convened its second extraordinary shareholders’ meeting of 2026 for 29 September in Beijing, setting out a slate of ordinary and special resolutions. Shareholders are expected to review an interim ...
ICBC Seeks Mandate to Issue Up to 10% New Shares Under A Share Plan
Sep 6, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited plans to seek shareholder approval for a general mandate allowing its board to issue up to 10% of its existing A shares and H shares, with the issue price for A shares set in principle not lower than...
ICBC Board Clears 15th Five‑Year Plan Strategy and RMB2.114 Billion Preference Share Payout
Aug 28, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s board met in Beijing on 28 August 2026, with all 13 directors present, and approved the bank’s development plan for China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan period, underlining its long‑te...
ICBC Sets 2026 Interim Cash Dividend for Hong Kong Shareholders
Aug 28, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has announced an interim ordinary cash dividend for the six months ended 30 June 2026, set at RMB 1.511 per 10 shares for its Hong Kong-listed equity. The dividend relates to the 2026 financial year,...
ICBC Outlines Capital and Risk Profile in 2026 Half-Year Pillar 3 Report
Aug 28, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has released its Pillar 3 Disclosure Report on capital management for the first half of 2026, outlining how it measures and manages key regulatory risks. The document covers risk management frameworks, risk-...
ICBC Highlights Strategic Focus and Confirms 2026 Interim Results Review
Aug 28, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, one of the world’s largest commercial banks, operates a broad suite of corporate and retail banking services across global markets, serving millions of enterprises and hundreds of millions of ...
ICBC Schedules Webcast for 2026 Interim Results Disclosure
Aug 21, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited will disclose its 2026 interim results on 28 August 2026 and has scheduled an online results release to brief investors on its performance and operating conditions. The webcast, led by President Liu ...
ICBC Raises RMB60 Billion Through Tier 2 Bond Connect Issuance
Aug 20, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has completed the issuance of its 2026 Tier 2 Capital Notes (Series 5) via the Bond Connect channel in China’s National Interbank Bond Market, following approvals from relevant regulators. The ...
ICBC Sets August 2026 Board Meeting to Approve Interim Results and Dividends
Aug 18, 2026
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited has scheduled a board meeting for 28 August 2026 to review and approve its interim financial results for the six months ended 30 June 2026. The board will also consider matters related to the payment...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.