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Agricultural Bank of China
(1288)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
HK$7.50
â–²(19.43% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/31/26
The score is anchored by mixed financial performance: strong reported growth/profitability is tempered by a sharp leverage increase and weaker recent cash-flow generation. Offsetting this, technicals are clearly bullish (price above key moving averages with positive MACD) and valuation is attractive (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Earnings-call commentary supports the outlook with improving margins, asset-quality metrics, and higher interim payout, while acknowledging funding repricing and risk-control challenges.
Positive Factors
Strong Deposit Franchise
A large and growing deposit base provides dependable funding for lending and investment activities while supporting liquidity resilience. Industry-leading retail funding can also strengthen customer retention and give the bank a durable platform for cross-selling payments, wealth management, and credit products.
Negative Factors
Sharp Leverage Increase
The sharp increase in debt-to-equity signals materially higher balance-sheet leverage and reduces financial flexibility relative to the prior year. Greater leverage can amplify the effect of credit or funding stress, constrain capital allocation, and make future earnings more sensitive to changes in financing conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Deposit Franchise
A large and growing deposit base provides dependable funding for lending and investment activities while supporting liquidity resilience. Industry-leading retail funding can also strengthen customer retention and give the bank a durable platform for cross-selling payments, wealth management, and credit products.
Read all positive factors
Agricultural Bank of China (1288) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$3.03T
Dividend Yield4.35%
Average Volume (3M)88.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.0
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth4.19%
EPS Growth7.85%
CountryHK
Employees457,835
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.86
Shares Outstanding30,738,822,000
10 Day Avg. Volume72,186,405
30 Day Avg. Volume88,972,307
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.80
Price to Book (P/B)0.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
P/FCF Ratio0.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$7.45Price Target Upside18.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$804.54B
Agricultural Bank of China Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agricultural Bank of China Limited offers an extensive array of banking and financial services designed for both corporate entities and individual customers. The company's operations are segmented into Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Trea...
How the Company Makes Money
Agricultural Bank of China makes money primarily through a mix of net interest income and non-interest (fee and commission) income, supplemented by treasury/market activities and other operating income typical of a universal commercial bank.
1) N...
Agricultural Bank of China Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 26, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted broad, measurable progress across profit, revenue, deposits, financing, asset coverage and digital/fintech initiatives, with management also candidly outlining areas needing continued attention (inclusive retail asset quality, deposit repricing, real-estate/platform risk and AI controls). The positive operating and funding trends, strong coverage ratios and a raised interim dividend outweigh the flagged challenges, while management set concrete mitigation actions.Positive Updates
Profit and Operating Income Growth
Net profit grew 5.8% in H1 2026 (an increase of 1 percentage point versus Q1); operating income increased 11.2% year-on-year (up 0.7 ppt versus Q1). Return on net assets remained strong at 10.14%.
Negative Updates
Funding & Deposit Repricing Cycle
The bank noted concentrated repricing risk as the stock of higher-rate time deposits matures (notably 3-year deposits), and social capital allocation changes pose challenges to short-term deposit dynamics and wealth-management competition.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Profit and Operating Income Growth
Net profit grew 5.8% in H1 2026 (an increase of 1 percentage point versus Q1); operating income increased 11.2% year-on-year (up 0.7 ppt versus Q1). Return on net assets remained strong at 10.14%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call guided that management expects to sustain H2 momentum while prioritizing rural revitalization, strict risk control, deposit franchise strength and AI‑driven digitalization: H1 metrics cited included net profit +5.8% YoY, operating income +11.2% YoY, return on net assets 10.14%; financing growth in H1 exceeded CNY3.0 trillion (loans & bonds increases ~CNY2.2 trillion; local/foreign currency loans +CNY1.69 trillion, +6.2%; bond investment +CNY1.52 trillion, +9.6%); average daily core deposits CNY29.59 trillion (+CNY3.67 trillion, +10.2%); NIM 1.28% (+2 bp q/q) and deposit funding cost 1.13% (‑21 bp from year‑end); NPLs declined (cited a 2 bp drop to ~1.25%), provision coverage ~290.1% with provisions >CNY1 trillion and watch‑list coverage 138%; inclusive loans CNY4.88 trillion (+~CNY432 billion) serving 5.58 million MSMEs; customer counts: 905 million personal, 14 million corporate, 76.98 million cardholders; other highlights: AIC pilot funds 31, fintech investments >CNY5.7 billion, cross‑border RMB settlement CNY1.96 trillion, average daily distributed core trading CNY1.96 billion (+17%); the board raised the interim dividend to 31% (CNY1.297 per 10 shares). Management reiterated plans to capture deposit repricing benefits and further lower liability costs, target ~40% country‑level business contribution while adding county outlets, accelerate AI/smart‑bank adoption (with controls for AI risk), optimize credit structure and preserve strong capital/asset‑quality buffers.Agricultural Bank of China Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.40T | 1.36T | 579.72B | 559.76B | 550.02B | 555.86B |
| Gross Profit | 652.23B | 724.17B | 579.72B | 694.64B | 550.02B | 555.86B |
| EBITDA | 364.51B | 347.60B | 342.40B | 329.29B | 326.68B | 315.24B |
| Net Income | 305.73B | 291.04B | 282.08B | 269.36B | 259.23B | 241.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.10T | 48.78T | 43.24T | 39.87T | 33.93T | 29.07T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.85T | 4.57T | 3.35T | 4.57T | 3.76T | 3.08T |
| Total Debt | 14.33T | 3.62T | 692.88B | 2.68T | 2.20T | 1.80T |
| Total Liabilities | 49.12T | 45.54T | 40.14T | 36.98T | 31.25T | 26.65T |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.98T | 3.24T | 3.09T | 2.89T | 2.67T | 2.41T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 318.04B | 2.09T | 1.33T | 1.80T | 1.30T | 213.58B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 345.55B | 2.11T | 1.35T | 1.83T | 1.32T | 239.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.61T | -2.07T | -2.24T | -1.33T | -1.05T | -331.24B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 3.34T | 352.95B | 225.63B | 5.20T | 298.22B | 54.00B |
Agricultural Bank of China Technical Analysis
Positive
6.28
Price Trends
6.40
Positive
6.03
Positive
5.72
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
68.14
Neutral
79.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1288, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.63, below the 50-day MA of 6.40, and above the 200-day MA of 5.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HK:1288.
Agricultural Bank of China Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | HK$2.45T | 8.65 | 8.41% | 4.16% | 2.02% | 1.80% | |
71 Outperform | HK$3.03T | 9.01 | 9.73% | 4.35% | 4.19% | 7.85% | |
71 Outperform | HK$3.47T | 8.58 | 9.18% | 4.71% | ― | ― | |
70 Outperform | HK$2.77T | 9.15 | 9.62% | 4.28% | 2.44% | 5.10% | |
70 Neutral | HK$840.08B | 7.99 | 8.14% | 4.27% | -0.80% | -9.37% | |
68 Neutral | HK$720.43B | 8.04 | 8.44% | 4.38% | 1.86% | -7.09% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
HK:1288
Agricultural Bank of China
6.94
1.31
23.36%
HK:3988
Bank of China
6.15
1.87
43.78%
HK:3328
Bank of Communications Co
8.60
1.99
30.05%
HK:0939
China Construction Bank
10.26
2.75
36.53%
HK:1398
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
7.90
2.18
38.15%
HK:1658
Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. Class H
5.62
0.32
5.98%
Agricultural Bank of China Corporate Events
Agricultural Bank of China Details Q3 2026 Risk and Capital Metrics in Pillar 3 Report
Oct 30, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has released its Pillar 3 Report for the third quarter of 2026, detailing its framework for risk management and key prudential regulatory metrics. The disclosure highlights the bank’s approach to risk-weigh...
Agricultural Bank of China Board Backs New Financial Bond Issuance Plan
Oct 30, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited’s board of directors convened an on-site meeting in Beijing on 30 October 2026, with all 14 directors in attendance, to deliberate on a key funding initiative. The meeting was held in accordance with PRC la...
Agricultural Bank of China Posts Strong Q3 2026 Profit Amid Cash-Flow Pressure
Oct 30, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China reported strong unaudited results for the third quarter of 2026, highlighting solid growth in profitability under IFRS reporting. Operating income for the quarter rose 15.14% year-on-year to RMB 208.38 billion, while net...
Agricultural Bank of China to Host Online Briefing on Q3 2026 Results
Oct 23, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China will release its third-quarter 2026 financial results on 30 October 2026 and follow the disclosure with an investor presentation the same day. The bank aims to provide a more detailed view of its quarterly performance an...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets Interim Dividend and Clarifies Tax Terms for H Shareholders
Oct 20, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has announced an interim ordinary dividend for the six months ended 30 June 2026, declaring RMB 1.297 per 10 shares for the financial year ending 31 December 2026. The dividend, approved on 29 September 2026, will be pai...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets Board Meeting to Approve Third-Quarter Results
Oct 20, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China’s board of directors has scheduled a meeting for 30 October 2026 to review and approve the bank’s financial results for the third quarter ended 30 September 2026. The announcement signals the upcoming release...
Agricultural Bank of China Raises RMB40 Billion in TLAC-Eligible Bond Issue
Oct 15, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has completed the issuance of its 2026 Total Loss-absorbing Capacity Eligible Non-Capital Bonds (Series 3) via the National Interbank Bond Market under the Bond Connect scheme. The total issuance reached RMB40 bi...
Agricultural Bank of China Reports Poll Results for 2026 Extraordinary Meeting
Sep 29, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has reported the poll results of its 2026 second extraordinary shareholders’ meeting, held in Beijing, where 5,223 shareholders and proxies representing about 95.3% of voting shares participated. The meeting addres...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets Interim Dividend and Tax Terms for H Shareholders
Sep 29, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced the distribution of an interim ordinary dividend for the six months ended 30 June 2026, set at RMB 1.297 per 10 shares for the financial year ending 31 December 2026. The dividend for Hong Kong H sh...
Agricultural Bank of China Boosts Capital with RMB50 Billion Tier 2 Note Issue
Sep 24, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has completed the issuance of its 2026 Tier 2 Capital Notes (Series 3) via Bond Connect in the National Interbank Bond Market. The 10-year fixed-rate notes, with a conditional redemption option at year five, carr...
Agricultural Bank of China Confirms Appointment of New Non-Executive Director
Sep 23, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has confirmed that the appointment of Ms. Zhang Yuqing as a non-executive director has become effective following regulatory approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration. She will also serve on ...
Agricultural Bank of China Updates Board and Committee Structure
Sep 23, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced the current composition of its board of directors, detailing the mix of executive, non-executive and independent non-executive directors. The update clarifies board leadership and governance respons...
Agricultural Bank of China Seeks Shareholder Approval for A-Share Issue and MOF Subscription
Sep 11, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has despatched a circular to shareholders detailing a proposed issuance of A shares under a general mandate, including an A share issuance plan and a subscription by the Ministry of Finance, alongside an application for ...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets Timetable for 2026 Interim Dividend
Sep 10, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has announced an interim ordinary cash dividend for the six months ended 30 June 2026, declaring RMB 1.297 per 10 shares for the financial year ending 31 December 2026. The default payment will be in Hong Kong do...
Agricultural Bank of China Seeks Share Issue Mandate at 2026 Extraordinary Meeting
Sep 10, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has called a second extraordinary shareholders’ meeting for 29 September 2026 in Beijing, where investors will vote on an interim profit distribution plan for 2026. The agenda underscores the bank’s intention...
Agricultural Bank of China Seeks Fresh Share Issuance Mandate to Bolster Capital
Sep 6, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has proposed a new general mandate allowing its board to issue up to 15% of its existing A and H share capital, aiming to support steady business development, enhance long-term capital management, and increase flexibilit...
Agricultural Bank of China Details Risk Profile in H1 2026 Pillar 3 Report
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has issued its Pillar 3 Report for the first half of 2026, detailing its approach to risk management and key prudential regulatory metrics. The report covers risk‑weighted assets, capital composition and to...
Agricultural Bank of China Proposes Interim Dividend for First Half of 2026
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has proposed an interim ordinary dividend of RMB 1.297 per 10 shares for the six months ended 30 June 2026, for the financial year ending 31 December 2026. The dividend will be distributed to Hong Kong shareholders in Ho...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets 2026 Interim Payout and Preference Share Dividend
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China’s board met in Beijing and approved an interim profit distribution plan for 2026, which independent directors said complies with regulations and protects shareholders’ rights, with final approval to rest with...
Agricultural Bank of China Boosts Capital With RMB50 Billion Tier 2 Bond
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has completed the issuance of its 2026 Tier 2 Capital Notes (Series 2) via Bond Connect in China’s National Interbank Bond Market. The fixed-rate notes, with a 10-year maturity, were issued in an aggregate principa...
Agricultural Bank of China Posts Strong First-Half 2026 Results and Confirms Systemic Status
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, a state-controlled commercial bank listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong, has evolved into a major integrated financial institution with a mandate to support rural revitalization and the real economy. It operates a v...
Agricultural Bank of China Raises RMB20 Billion in Additional Tier 1 Bond
Aug 25, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has completed the issuance of its 2026 Undated Additional Tier 1 Capital Bonds (Series 1) via the Bond Connect scheme in the National Interbank Bond Market, following regulatory approval. The RMB20 billion offering carri...
Agricultural Bank of China Schedules Webcast for 2026 Interim Results
Aug 21, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China will release its 2026 interim results on 28 August 2026 and hold an online results presentation the same day from 17:00 to 18:00 Hong Kong time. The webcast will feature President Wang Zhiheng, independent non-executive ...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets August Board Meeting to Review Interim Results and Dividend
Aug 18, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, a major state-owned commercial lender in the People’s Republic of China, operates a broad franchise serving retail, corporate and rural customers, and is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under stock ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.