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Agricultural Bank of China
(1288)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
HK$7.00
â–˛(11.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/31/26
The score is driven by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and constructive technical trend signals, supported by a generally positive earnings call with improving funding/asset-quality metrics and higher interim dividend. Offsetting these positives, the overall financial profile is held back by a meaningful TTM leverage jump on the balance sheet and volatility in margins and cash-flow dynamics.
Positive Factors
Large deposit franchise
The extensive deposit base strengthens liquidity and provides a durable funding platform for lending and investment. Continued deposit growth also supports customer retention, scale advantages and the bank’s ability to serve retail and corporate clients.
Negative Factors
Sharp leverage increase
The step-change in leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to funding, credit and regulatory pressures. Even with stable returns on equity, elevated leverage can constrain future risk-taking and amplify losses during stress.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large deposit franchise
The extensive deposit base strengthens liquidity and provides a durable funding platform for lending and investment. Continued deposit growth also supports customer retention, scale advantages and the bank’s ability to serve retail and corporate clients.
Read all positive factors
Agricultural Bank of China (1288) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$2.79T
Dividend Yield6.59%
Average Volume (3M)84.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth4.19%
EPS Growth7.85%
CountryHK
Employees446,913
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.81
Shares Outstanding30,738,822,000
10 Day Avg. Volume89,348,152
30 Day Avg. Volume84,193,256
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.80
Price to Book (P/B)0.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.43
P/FCF Ratio0.93
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
HK$6.82Price Target Upside8.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)HK$795.35B
Agricultural Bank of China Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agricultural Bank of China Limited offers an extensive array of banking and financial services designed for both corporate entities and individual customers. The company's operations are segmented into Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Trea...
How the Company Makes Money
Agricultural Bank of China primarily earns money through a mix of interest-based income and fee-based income, with additional contributions from treasury activities and other operating income. (1) Net interest income: The bank takes customer depos...
Agricultural Bank of China Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted broad, measurable progress across profit, revenue, deposits, financing, asset coverage and digital/fintech initiatives, with management also candidly outlining areas needing continued attention (inclusive retail asset quality, deposit repricing, real-estate/platform risk and AI controls). The positive operating and funding trends, strong coverage ratios and a raised interim dividend outweigh the flagged challenges, while management set concrete mitigation actions.Positive Updates
Profit and Operating Income Growth
Net profit grew 5.8% in H1 2026 (an increase of 1 percentage point versus Q1); operating income increased 11.2% year-on-year (up 0.7 ppt versus Q1). Return on net assets remained strong at 10.14%.
Negative Updates
Funding & Deposit Repricing Cycle
The bank noted concentrated repricing risk as the stock of higher-rate time deposits matures (notably 3-year deposits), and social capital allocation changes pose challenges to short-term deposit dynamics and wealth-management competition.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Profit and Operating Income Growth
Net profit grew 5.8% in H1 2026 (an increase of 1 percentage point versus Q1); operating income increased 11.2% year-on-year (up 0.7 ppt versus Q1). Return on net assets remained strong at 10.14%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call guided that management expects to sustain H2 momentum while prioritizing rural revitalization, strict risk control, deposit franchise strength and AI‑driven digitalization: H1 metrics cited included net profit +5.8% YoY, operating income +11.2% YoY, return on net assets 10.14%; financing growth in H1 exceeded CNY3.0 trillion (loans & bonds increases ~CNY2.2 trillion; local/foreign currency loans +CNY1.69 trillion, +6.2%; bond investment +CNY1.52 trillion, +9.6%); average daily core deposits CNY29.59 trillion (+CNY3.67 trillion, +10.2%); NIM 1.28% (+2 bp q/q) and deposit funding cost 1.13% (‑21 bp from year‑end); NPLs declined (cited a 2 bp drop to ~1.25%), provision coverage ~290.1% with provisions >CNY1 trillion and watch‑list coverage 138%; inclusive loans CNY4.88 trillion (+~CNY432 billion) serving 5.58 million MSMEs; customer counts: 905 million personal, 14 million corporate, 76.98 million cardholders; other highlights: AIC pilot funds 31, fintech investments >CNY5.7 billion, cross‑border RMB settlement CNY1.96 trillion, average daily distributed core trading CNY1.96 billion (+17%); the board raised the interim dividend to 31% (CNY1.297 per 10 shares). Management reiterated plans to capture deposit repricing benefits and further lower liability costs, target ~40% country‑level business contribution while adding county outlets, accelerate AI/smart‑bank adoption (with controls for AI risk), optimize credit structure and preserve strong capital/asset‑quality buffers.Agricultural Bank of China Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.38T | 1.36T | 579.72B | 559.76B | 550.02B | 555.86B |
| Gross Profit | 658.87B | 724.17B | 579.72B | 694.64B | 550.02B | 555.86B |
| EBITDA | 348.88B | 347.60B | 342.40B | 329.29B | 326.68B | 315.24B |
| Net Income | 296.93B | 291.04B | 282.08B | 269.36B | 259.23B | 241.18B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 51.05T | 48.78T | 43.24T | 39.87T | 33.93T | 29.07T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.79T | 4.57T | 3.35T | 4.57T | 3.76T | 3.08T |
| Total Debt | 13.41T | 3.62T | 692.88B | 2.68T | 2.20T | 1.80T |
| Total Liabilities | 48.11T | 45.54T | 40.14T | 36.98T | 31.25T | 26.65T |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.94T | 3.24T | 3.09T | 2.89T | 2.67T | 2.41T |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.16T | 2.09T | 1.33T | 1.80T | 1.30T | 213.58B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.19T | 2.11T | 1.35T | 1.83T | 1.32T | 239.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.94T | -2.07T | -2.24T | -1.33T | -1.05T | -331.24B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.31T | 352.95B | 225.63B | 5.20T | 298.22B | 54.00B |
Agricultural Bank of China Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | HK$2.27T | 8.01 | 8.41% | 4.23% | 2.02% | 1.80% | |
72 Outperform | HK$2.79T | 8.40 | 9.73% | 6.59% | 4.19% | 7.85% | |
71 Outperform | HK$765.58B | 6.93 | 8.14% | 4.54% | -0.80% | -10.99% | |
70 Outperform | HK$2.62T | 8.41 | 9.62% | 4.50% | 2.44% | 5.10% | |
69 Neutral | HK$3.21T | 7.95 | 9.18% | 4.60% | 0.92% | 6.35% | |
68 Neutral | HK$683.71B | 7.45 | 8.44% | 4.90% | 1.86% | -7.09% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
HK:1288
Agricultural Bank of China
6.36
1.04
19.45%
HK:3988
Bank of China
6.05
1.82
43.01%
HK:3328
Bank of Communications Co
8.09
1.54
23.57%
HK:0939
China Construction Bank
9.75
2.29
30.71%
HK:1398
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
7.61
1.92
33.72%
HK:1658
Postal Savings Bank of China Co., Ltd. Class H
5.42
-0.13
-2.43%
Agricultural Bank of China Corporate Events
Agricultural Bank of China Details Risk Profile in H1 2026 Pillar 3 Report
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has issued its Pillar 3 Report for the first half of 2026, detailing its approach to risk management and key prudential regulatory metrics. The report covers risk‑weighted assets, capital composition and to...
Agricultural Bank of China Proposes Interim Dividend for First Half of 2026
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has proposed an interim ordinary dividend of RMB 1.297 per 10 shares for the six months ended 30 June 2026, for the financial year ending 31 December 2026. The dividend will be distributed to Hong Kong shareholders in Ho...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets 2026 Interim Payout and Preference Share Dividend
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China’s board met in Beijing and approved an interim profit distribution plan for 2026, which independent directors said complies with regulations and protects shareholders’ rights, with final approval to rest with...
Agricultural Bank of China Boosts Capital With RMB50 Billion Tier 2 Bond
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has completed the issuance of its 2026 Tier 2 Capital Notes (Series 2) via Bond Connect in China’s National Interbank Bond Market. The fixed-rate notes, with a 10-year maturity, were issued in an aggregate principa...
Agricultural Bank of China Posts Strong First-Half 2026 Results and Confirms Systemic Status
Aug 28, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, a state-controlled commercial bank listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong, has evolved into a major integrated financial institution with a mandate to support rural revitalization and the real economy. It operates a v...
Agricultural Bank of China Raises RMB20 Billion in Additional Tier 1 Bond
Aug 25, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China has completed the issuance of its 2026 Undated Additional Tier 1 Capital Bonds (Series 1) via the Bond Connect scheme in the National Interbank Bond Market, following regulatory approval. The RMB20 billion offering carri...
Agricultural Bank of China Schedules Webcast for 2026 Interim Results
Aug 21, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China will release its 2026 interim results on 28 August 2026 and hold an online results presentation the same day from 17:00 to 18:00 Hong Kong time. The webcast will feature President Wang Zhiheng, independent non-executive ...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets August Board Meeting to Review Interim Results and Dividend
Aug 18, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited, a major state-owned commercial lender in the People’s Republic of China, operates a broad franchise serving retail, corporate and rural customers, and is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange under stock ...
Agricultural Bank of China Clears All Resolutions at 2025 Shareholders’ Meeting
Jun 26, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China reported that its 2025 annual shareholders’ meeting was held in Beijing on 26 June 2026, with a high turnout representing about 89.85% of its total voting shares across A and H share classes. The meeting complied w...
Agricultural Bank of China Names New Non-Executive Director Candidate and Sets 2025 Shareholders’ Meeting
Jun 4, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China’s board approved the nomination of Ms. Zhang Yuqing as a non-executive director candidate, with her three-year term to commence upon shareholder approval and regulatory ratification by the National Financial Regula...
Agricultural Bank of China Sets 2025 Shareholders’ Meeting to Tackle Governance Agenda
Jun 4, 2026
Agricultural Bank of China Limited has scheduled its 2025 annual shareholders’ meeting for the afternoon of 26 June 2026 at its Beijing headquarters, with H-shareholders on record that day eligible to attend and vote. The meeting will use bo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.