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Howard Hughes Holdings
(NYSE:HHH)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$79.00
▲(17.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/29/26
Overall score reflects an improving financial profile (return to profitability and strong TTM free cash flow) tempered by leverage and margin/cash-flow variability typical of a development-heavy model. Technicals add support with a strong uptrend, but overbought signals reduce near-term attractiveness. Valuation is reasonable on P/E, and the latest earnings call was a net positive due to clear guidance, capital support, and visible monetization pipeline, despite discrete insurance losses and near-term cash-flow/interest pressure.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Profitability Recovery
The return to profitability alongside strong trailing revenue growth indicates that the platform is converting renewed demand and development activity into earnings. If maintained, this recovery can strengthen internal funding capacity and support reinvestment across communities and operating assets over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Debt materially exceeds equity, leaving less financial flexibility for a development-heavy real estate model with uneven project timing. Elevated leverage can constrain investment choices, increase sensitivity to operating volatility, and make sustained asset monetization or cash generation important for maintaining balance-sheet resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profitability Recovery
The return to profitability alongside strong trailing revenue growth indicates that the platform is converting renewed demand and development activity into earnings. If maintained, this recovery can strengthen internal funding capacity and support reinvestment across communities and operating assets over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Howard Hughes Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down where revenue comes from across the company’s businesses, helping you see which segments are growing, which are stable, and where revenue is concentrated. For Howard Hughes, this distinguishes recurring rental or HOA income from one-time development or sale proceeds, so you can judge sustainability and sensitivity to housing and commercial cycles.
Breaks down where revenue comes from across the company’s businesses, helping you see which segments are growing, which are stable, and where revenue is concentrated. For Howard Hughes, this distinguishes recurring rental or HOA income from one-time development or sale proceeds, so you can judge sustainability and sensitivity to housing and commercial cycles.
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The Fly
The FlyHoward Hughes Holdings (HHH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.40B
Dividend Yield5.12%
Average Volume (3M)771.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.9
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth31.83%
EPS Growth7.70%
CountryUS
Employees500
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.95
Shares Outstanding59,719,463
10 Day Avg. Volume916,331
30 Day Avg. Volume771,638
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.80
Price to Book (P/B)1.24
Price to Sales (P/S)3.18
P/FCF Ratio10.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.67
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit17.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.50
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$81.00Price Target Upside20.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)3.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.09B
Howard Hughes Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is an American real estate development firm that operates through its subsidiaries across the United States. The company organizes its diverse activities into four primary divisions: Operating Assets, Master Planned Com...
How the Company Makes Money
HHH primarily makes money through a combination of (1) land and residential/commercial development activities within its master planned communities and (2) recurring operating income from stabilized, income-producing real estate. In its master pla...
Howard Hughes Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a constructive and growth-oriented narrative: the strategic acquisition of Vantage, strong premium growth, improving underwriting metrics (excluding discrete items), significant capital support from Pershing Square, and proactive, conservative asset allocation of the investment portfolio are major positives. Real estate operations continue to generate strong cash flow and sizable monetization proceeds (condo and land), and the company has clear plans to recycle capital into higher-return opportunities. Short-term challenges include a Q2 combined ratio above 100% driven by catastrophe and prior development charges, some temporary cash-flow pressure from leasing and higher interest expense, equity mark-to-market volatility, and selective softening in insurance market segments. Overall, the highlights — including sizable YoY improvements in key insurance profitability metrics, material real estate monetizations, and committed capital/support — meaningfully outweigh the transitory lowlights, indicating a positive outlook.Positive Updates
Vantage Premium Growth
Gross written premium rose 29% year-over-year to $473 million and net written premium rose 29% to $325 million; net earned premium increased 22% to $295 million, indicating strong top-line growth in the newly acquired insurance platform.
Negative Updates
Q2 Combined Ratio Above 100%
Vantage's reported group combined ratio for the second quarter was 101.6% versus 94% a year ago, indicating an underwriting loss in the quarter driven by discrete items.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Vantage Premium Growth
Gross written premium rose 29% year-over-year to $473 million and net written premium rose 29% to $325 million; net earned premium increased 22% to $295 million, indicating strong top-line growth in the newly acquired insurance platform.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management gave detailed, metric‑driven guidance: Vantage’s Q2 combined ratio was 101.6% (vs. 94% a year ago) with gross written premium $473M (+29% Y/Y), net written premium $325M (+29%), net earned premium $295M (+22%), including $18M of catastrophe losses and $19M of adverse prior development (a ~10.2% combined‑ratio headwind); current accident‑year combined ratio ex‑cats improved to 91.4% in Q2 (YTD 90.9%), H1 combined ratio was 96.1% and trailing‑12‑month 94.7%; YTD net income was $86M (+94%) and YTD underwriting income ~$23M (~2x), book value ended Q2 at $1.8B versus roughly $1.2B of TTM net written premium (premium‑to‑surplus ≈0.7) and AM Best affirmed A‑ (positive outlook). Capital and investment guidance included a $300M incremental Vantage contribution and Pershing Square’s commitment of roughly $1B of additional capital/preferred support, a ~$3.4B invested portfolio at close that was rebalanced to a short‑duration barbell (>60% short‑term U.S. Treasuries at quarter end, ~$1.1B or ~33% equities then, subsequently ~40% equities) with a target of at least 50% equities over time, and an expectation that Howard Hughes’ real‑estate platform will generate ~$2.5–$3.0B of excess free cash flow over the next five years; real‑estate results included MPC EBIT $134.7M (+32% Y/Y), new home sales +12% (Woodlands Hills +34%, Bridgeland +17%), a remaining wholly‑owned land bank with ~ $5.6B projected residual value, Park Ward Village net proceeds ~ $227M, a condominium pipeline >$4B of expected revenue (~78% under contract), and sales (Creekside Park/The Grove) that generated ~ $30M net proceeds at ~30% project IRR.Howard Hughes Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.37B | 1.47B | 1.75B | 1.02B | 1.49B | 1.43B |
| Gross Profit | 413.96M | 276.10M | 731.95M | 433.97M | 642.06M | 510.68M |
| EBITDA | 775.94M | 517.79M | 710.44M | -389.35M | 602.23M | 399.26M |
| Net Income | 292.10M | 123.90M | 197.70M | -551.77M | 184.53M | 56.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.91B | 10.64B | 9.21B | 9.58B | 9.60B | 9.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.68B | 1.47B | 596.08M | 629.71M | 626.65M | 843.21M |
| Total Debt | 5.46B | 5.11B | 5.13B | 5.15B | 4.80B | 4.66B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.88B | 6.80B | 6.37B | 6.52B | 6.00B | 5.85B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.96B | 3.78B | 2.78B | 2.99B | 3.54B | 3.71B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 773.04M | 458.87M | 350.85M | -295.73M | 323.25M | -285.77M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 796.35M | 462.37M | 400.94M | -248.18M | 325.25M | -283.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -468.65M | -219.07M | -307.25M | -348.92M | -220.69M | 101.46M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.24B | 855.35M | -148.25M | 551.22M | -222.26M | 156.14M |
Howard Hughes Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
67.00
Price Trends
66.51
Positive
67.14
Positive
69.38
Positive
Market Momentum
2.23
Negative
63.68
Neutral
65.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HHH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.19, above the 50-day MA of 66.51, and below the 200-day MA of 69.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HHH.
Howard Hughes Holdings Risk Analysis
Howard Hughes Holdings disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Howard Hughes Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Howard Hughes Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $1.31B | 7.68 | 9.42% | ― | 11.76% | 4.46% | |
71 Outperform | $3.69B | 30.31 | 16.10% | 0.99% | 28.41% | 50.50% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $4.40B | 14.89 | 7.18% | 5.12% | 31.83% | 7.70% | |
62 Neutral | $110.33M | 18.81 | 4.21% | ― | -15.29% | -56.15% | |
62 Neutral | $491.35M | 5.98 | 6.35% | ― | -40.80% | -33.41% | |
42 Neutral | $294.51M | -64.62 | -14.25% | ― | -4.11% | 66.64% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings
73.73
-5.60
-7.06%
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FOR
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14.83
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JOE
St Joe Company
64.86
17.77
37.72%
FPH
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4.48
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-22.36%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.