National Storage Affiliates (NSA) AI Stock Analysis

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National Storage Affiliates

(NYSE:NSA)

Rating:53Neutral

Price Target:

$35.00

▲(6.12%Upside)

The overall score of 53 reflects a combination of robust cash flow management and attractive dividend yield, offset by high valuation and bearish technical signals. Revenue challenges and high leverage further temper the outlook. The company needs to focus on improving revenue growth and managing debt levels to enhance future prospects.

Positive Factors

Acquisitions

NSA acquired 4 wholly-owned self-storage properties for approximately $39.6 million.

Guidance

The 2025 earnings guidance was reiterated, suggesting potential improvements in the second half of the year.

Share Repurchase Program

A new share repurchase program has been approved, authorizing the repurchase of up to $350 million of common shares.

Negative Factors

Earnings Miss

NSA missed 1Q FFO/sh, $0.54 vs $0.56/sh consensus.

Occupancy Decline

SS avg occupancy declined by 190 basis points and end of period occupancy weakened by 240 basis points.

Pricing Power

Overall trends continue to show notable pricing power softness in the sector.

National Storage Affiliates (NSA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.52B

Dividend Yield6.91%

Average Volume (3M)968.94K

Price to Earnings (P/E)55.6

Beta (1Y)0.78

Revenue Growth-9.89%

EPS Growth-70.29%

CountryUS

Employees1,466

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength69

IndustryREIT - Industrial

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.10

Shares Outstanding76,489,210

10 Day Avg. Volume950,638

30 Day Avg. Volume968,943

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.62

Price to Book (P/B)2.00

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio8.24

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.71

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.17

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.42

Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.43

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$37.00

Price Target Upside12.19% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Sell

Number of Analyst Covering10

National Storage Affiliates Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Storage Affiliates Trust is a Maryland real estate investment trust focused on the ownership, operation and acquisition of self storage properties located within the top 100 metropolitan statistical areas throughout the United States. As of September 30, 2020, the Company held ownership interests in and operated 788 self storage properties located in 35 states and Puerto Rico with approximately 49.5 million rentable square feet. NSA is one of the largest owners and operators of self storage properties among public and private companies in the United States.

How the Company Makes MoneyNational Storage Affiliates generates revenue primarily through the rental income of its self-storage facilities. The company leases storage units to individuals and businesses on a short-term basis, typically month-to-month, which provides a consistent and recurring revenue stream. Additional income is derived from ancillary services such as tenant insurance, packing supplies, and administrative fees. NSA's PRO structure allows it to partner with regional operators who contribute their properties and expertise, aligning their interests with the overall performance of the company, which enhances operational efficiencies and contributes to revenue growth. Additionally, NSA may engage in strategic acquisitions of existing self-storage properties to expand its portfolio and increase its market presence, further driving revenue.

National Storage Affiliates Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Ending Same-Store Occupancy

Ending Same-Store Occupancy
Indicates the percentage of storage units occupied at the end of a period in stores open for at least a year, reflecting demand stability and pricing power.

Chart InsightsEnding same-store occupancy for National Storage Affiliates has been on a declining trend since mid-2022, reflecting broader challenges in maintaining tenant levels. Despite a slight uptick in April 2025, the company faces pressure from increased interest expenses and a decline in same-store NOI. However, management is optimistic about a better leasing season ahead, driven by improved pricing power and strategic market positioning, particularly in Portland and Houston. The focus on reducing net debt-to-EBITDA and leveraging acquisitions could stabilize occupancy and enhance revenue growth in the coming months.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

National Storage Affiliates Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -11.20%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture. While there were positive developments like sequential revenue growth, successful PRO transition, and strategic acquisitions, these were tempered by declines in core FFO, same-store revenues, and increasing interest expenses.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Sequential Improvement in Same-Store Revenue Growth

There was a 130 basis points sequential improvement in same-store revenue growth on a year-over-year basis, with Portland and Houston markets inflecting positive.

Successful PRO Transition and Operational Improvements

The completion of the PRO transition led to better search rankings, enhanced pricing algorithms, and declines in personnel expenses. Contract rates increased approximately 5% from the first quarter.

Acquisition Activity and Market Positioning

Closed on three assets totaling approximately $40 million and sold two properties totaling $10 million. Proceeds will be used to pay down debt and fund future acquisitions.

Negative Updates

Decline in Core FFO Per Share

Core FFO per share declined 10% from the prior year due to a decrease in same-store NOI and increased interest expense.

Same-Store Revenue and NOI Decline

Same-store revenues declined 3%, and NOI growth was negative 5.7%, driven by lower occupancy and increased expenses.

Increased Interest Expense

Interest expense was $1 million higher due to the maturity of a swap, resulting in a $0.01 drag on the quarter's results.

Company Guidance

During the National Storage Affiliates First Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company reported several key metrics and provided guidance for the upcoming year. Same-store revenue growth improved by 130 basis points sequentially, with Portland and Houston showing positive inflections. Contract rates increased approximately 5% from the first quarter levels, and April occupancy rose by 20 basis points to 83.8%. Core FFO per share was reported at $0.54, marking a 10% decline from the previous year due to increased interest expenses and a decrease in same-store NOI. Despite a 190 basis point drop in average occupancy and a 1% decline in average revenue per square foot, management expressed optimism for a moderately better spring leasing season. They highlighted the potential for revenue growth fueled by improved pricing power and occupancy through the summer months. Net debt-to-EBITDA stood at 6.9 times, with expectations to reduce it to 6%-6.5% in the latter half of the year. Guidance remains unchanged, with the high end assuming a recovery in the housing market, while the low end accounts for no material improvement.

National Storage Affiliates Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Storage Affiliates presents a mixed financial picture. Strong cash flow conversion and stable EBIT/EBITDA margins are positive, but revenue decline and high leverage pose risks. The net profit margin's decrease and high debt levels are concerning, requiring attention to revenue growth and debt management.

Income Statement

Positive

The income statement reveals a mixed performance. Gross profit margin is strong at approximately 72.14% for TTM, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 8.58% for TTM, showing a decline from 14.48% in 2024. Revenue growth has been negative in recent periods, with a decrease of 10.22% from 2023 to 2024, reflecting potential challenges in revenue generation. EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown stability, which is positive for core operations.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.34 for TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential risk. The equity ratio is relatively low at 19.67%, which points to heavy reliance on debt financing. Return on equity has decreased to 6.33% for TTM, down from 10.37% in 2024, suggesting reduced profitability for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis indicates a strong free cash flow to net income ratio of 5.15 for TTM, reflecting robust cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 5.42, showing efficient conversion of earnings to cash. Despite a slight decline in free cash flow from 2024 to TTM, the company maintains good cash flow management.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
762.54M	770.34M	858.06M	801.57M	585.67M	432.22M
	Gross Profit
550.28M	558.48M	407.08M	357.39M	272.09M	308.74M
	EBIT
289.71M	297.16M	336.69M	289.54M	218.24M	146.17M
	EBITDA
473.95M	487.01M	626.72M	532.21M	379.00M	262.13M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
65.48M	111.52M	156.67M	103.74M	105.25M	48.61M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
19.27M	50.41M	94.59M	35.31M	25.01M	18.72M
	Total Assets
5.26B	5.35B	5.93B	6.07B	5.56B	3.51B
	Total Debt
3.45B	3.47B	3.68B	3.58B	2.96B	1.94B
	Net Debt
3.43B	3.42B	3.62B	3.54B	2.94B	1.92B
	Total Liabilities
3.56B	3.59B	3.81B	3.68B	3.08B	2.08B
	Stockholders Equity
1.03B	1.08B	1.42B	1.65B	1.78B	968.96M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
336.93M	344.41M	406.03M	400.12M	303.35M	203.90M
	Operating Cash Flow
354.69M	363.06M	441.58M	443.85M	331.35M	220.65M
	Investing Cash Flow
-151.66M	425.42M	161.10M	-584.16M	-2.00B	-509.68M
	Financing Cash Flow
-271.94M	-825.42M	-557.19M	154.64M	1.67B	286.45M

National Storage Affiliates Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price32.98

Price Trends

50DMA

34.64

Negative

100DMA

35.75

Negative

200DMA

38.53

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.57

Negative

RSI

40.76

Neutral

STOCH

8.87

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NSA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.77, below the 50-day MA of 34.64, and below the 200-day MA of 38.53, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.57 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.87 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NSA.

National Storage Affiliates Risk Analysis

National Storage Affiliates disclosed 36 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Storage Affiliates reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Storage Affiliates Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PLYM	81 Outperform	$748.12M	5.33	26.05%	5.91%	-3.48%	615.20%
IIPR	79 Outperform	$1.58B	10.83	7.78%	13.49%	-1.33%	-8.62%
EXR	76 Outperform	$33.15B	34.78	6.46%	4.33%	14.72%	-4.21%
PSA	74 Outperform	$51.74B	29.29	20.20%	4.07%	3.08%	-8.54%
CUBE	73 Outperform	$9.85B	25.39	13.72%	4.84%	2.15%	-5.99%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$2.83B	10.72	0.40%	6.10%	5.80%	-21.26%
NSA	53 Neutral	$2.52B	55.58	5.66%	6.91%	-9.89%	-70.29%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NSA

National Storage Affiliates

32.98

-5.71

-14.76%

CUBE

Cubesmart

43.00

0.88

2.09%

EXR

Extra Space Storage

149.60

-0.62

-0.41%

PSA

Public Storage

294.95

21.67

7.93%

IIPR

Innovative Industrial Properties

56.35

-41.85

-42.62%

PLYM

Plymouth Industrial Reit

16.25

-3.60

-18.14%

National Storage Affiliates Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

National Storage Affiliates Holds Annual Shareholder Meeting

Neutral

May 15, 2025

On May 12, 2025, National Storage Affiliates Trust held its annual meeting of shareholders, where approximately 91.50% of the company’s common shares were represented. During the meeting, shareholders elected eleven trustees to the board, ratified KPMG LLP as the independent auditor for 2025, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSA) stock is a Sell with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Storage Affiliates stock, see the NSA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.