Heineken (HEINY) AI Stock Analysis

Heineken

(Other OTC:HEINY)

Select Model

Rating:59Neutral

Price Target:$42.00▼(-7.49% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/06/26

Heineken's overall score of 59 reflects a neutral to slightly positive outlook. The stock benefits from robust cash flows and a bullish technical trend, which are offset by high valuation and profitability challenges. The most significant positive factors are the strong cash generation and price momentum, while the elevated P/E ratio and margin pressures limit upside potential.

Positive Factors

Global brand portfolio and geographic reachHeineken’s diversified brand portfolio and presence across many geographies and sales channels provide structural resilience. This broad route to market can reduce dependence on any single country, customer group, or brand while supporting premiumization and long-term consumer reach.

Negative Factors

Recent revenue softnessRecent revenue softness shows that top-line momentum has weakened despite Heineken’s scale and broad distribution. If subdued demand or volume persists, it could limit operating leverage, reduce the capacity to absorb costs, and make sustained earnings growth more difficult.

Heineken (HEINY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $48.97B
Dividend Yield: 2.52%
Average Volume (3M): 66.88K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.5
Beta (1Y): 0.36
Revenue Growth: 8.15%
EPS Growth: 35.87%
Country: US
Employees: 87,160
Sector: Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength: 62
Industry: Beverages - Alcoholic

Heineken Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Heineken N.V. specializes in the production and global distribution of alcoholic beverages, primarily beer and cider, supplemented by non-alcoholic options such as soft drinks and water. The company boasts an extensive portfolio of beer labels, featu...

How the Company Makes Money

Heineken makes money primarily by selling alcoholic beverages—predominantly beer—through a mix of owned brewing operations and distribution networks across multiple geographies. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of branded beer and related alcoholi...

Heineken Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 27, 2025(Q2-2025)|% Change Since:2.61%|Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2019

Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The earnings call reflects a resilient performance with strong profit growth and positive momentum in key markets like APAC and AME. However, challenges such as volume declines, currency impacts, and operational issues in Europe weigh on the overall outlook. Strategic initiatives and sustainability progress provide a positive long-term outlook.

Positive Updates

Strong Profit Growth

Operating profit (beia) grew by 7.4%, with a margin increase of 26 basis points to 14.3%. Net profit (beia) increased by 7.5% organically.

Negative Updates

Decline in Beer Volume

Total beer volume was down by 1.2%, with Europe experiencing a 4.7% decline due to prolonged retail negotiations.

Company Guidance

In the 2025 half-year results call, Heineken reiterated its robust profit growth, despite facing macroeconomic challenges. The company reported a 7.4% increase in operating profit (beia) and a 2.1% organic growth in net revenue (beia) to €14.2 billion. Volume growth was slightly negative at -1.2%, but net revenue per liter (beia) improved by 3.3%. The Heineken brand showed a 4.5% volume growth, while operating margin increased by 26 basis points to 14.3%. Notably, Africa and the Middle East contributed significantly with a 19.8% organic net revenue rise and over 50% growth in operating profit (beia) in euros. The guidance for the full-year operating profit (beia) remains at an organic growth range of 4% to 8%.

Heineken Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Heineken's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows revenue stagnation and margin compression (score 48), while the balance sheet has moderate leverage (55). Cash flow generation remains strong (65), providing financial flexibility. Overall, the company faces profitability headwinds but maintains a solid foundation.

Income Statement

48Neutral

Balance Sheet

55Neutral

Cash Flow

65Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	29.71B	28.75B	29.82B	30.36B	28.72B	21.94B
Gross Profit	6.99B	10.29B	10.51B	10.70B	11.36B	8.57B
EBITDA	6.00B	6.21B	5.29B	5.15B	6.41B	6.39B
Net Income	2.28B	1.89B	978.00M	2.30B	2.68B	3.32B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	58.02B	53.75B	53.77B	55.15B	53.42B	49.82B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.83B	4.77B	2.35B	2.38B	2.77B	3.25B
Total Debt	20.64B	19.28B	17.05B	18.24B	16.38B	16.87B
Total Liabilities	36.32B	33.14B	31.37B	32.36B	31.50B	30.12B
Stockholders Equity	19.11B	17.98B	19.58B	20.06B	19.55B	17.36B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.00B	2.61B	3.04B	1.75B	2.48B	2.58B
Operating Cash Flow	5.94B	5.01B	5.50B	4.43B	4.50B	4.18B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.99B	-2.46B	-2.44B	-3.58B	-2.29B	-2.29B
Financing Cash Flow	-329.05M	153.00M	-2.57B	-816.00M	-3.13B	-2.87B

Heineken Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price45.40

Price Trends

50DMA41.50Positive

100DMA42.12Positive

200DMA41.00Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.80Negative

RSI71.36Negative

STOCH86.54Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HEINY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.40 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.89, above the 50-day MA of 41.50, and above the 200-day MA of 41.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.36 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.54 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HEINY.

Heineken Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

HEINY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABEV	72Outperform	$41.57B	14.31	17.63%	4.55%	4.24%	19.95%
BUD	72Outperform	$159.43B	12.95	13.31%	1.68%	6.60%	31.61%
STZ	69Neutral	$22.90B	12.13	23.58%	3.04%	-4.31%	62.57%
Sector *	62Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SAM	60Neutral	$2.04B	-29.47	-9.81%	―	-3.71%	-180.44%
HEINY	59Neutral	$49.08B	19.45	12.22%	2.52%	8.15%	35.87%
TAP	54Neutral	$7.52B	-3.48	-22.65%	4.76%	-1.77%	-326.16%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

HEINY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
HEINY	Heineken	44.41	6.48	17.10%
BUD	Anheuser-busch Inbev	80.38	20.02	33.17%
SAM	Boston Beer Company	201.31	-3.70	-1.80%
STZ	Constellation Brands	135.33	8.24	6.48%
TAP	Molson Coors Beverage	40.12	-1.23	-2.99%
ABEV	Ambev SA	2.66	0.43	19.12%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026

Heineken AI Stock Analysis