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Heineken (HEINY) AI Stock Analysis
Heineken
(Other OTC:HEINY)
Heineken's overall score of 53 reflects a stock with meaningful headwinds offsetting its defensive qualities. The most significant drag comes from valuation: a P/E of 29x is difficult to justify given declining revenue, rising leverage, and profitability still below historical peaks. Financial performance is middling—cash flow generation is solid but debt is climbing and margins remain compressed. Technical momentum is the brightest spot, with the stock trending above all key moving averages, though near-term overbought signals temper enthusiasm. Heineken remains a stable, low-beta defensive holding, but the premium valuation and lack of growth catalysts limit upside potential at current levels.
Heineken (HEINY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $50.82B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.45%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 70.21K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 19.9
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.36
- Revenue Growth
- 8.15%
- EPS Growth
- 35.87%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 87,160
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Sector Strength
- 62
- Industry
- Beverages - Alcoholic
Heineken Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Heineken N.V. specializes in the production and global distribution of alcoholic beverages, primarily beer and cider, supplemented by non-alcoholic options such as soft drinks and water. The company boasts an extensive portfolio of beer labels, featu...
How the Company Makes Money
Heineken makes money primarily by selling alcoholic beverages—predominantly beer—through a mix of owned brewing operations and distribution networks across multiple geographies. Revenue is generated from (1) sales of branded beer and related alcoholi...
Heineken Earnings Call Summary
The earnings call reflects a resilient performance with strong profit growth and positive momentum in key markets like APAC and AME. However, challenges such as volume declines, currency impacts, and operational issues in Europe weigh on the overall outlook. Strategic initiatives and sustainability progress provide a positive long-term outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
In the 2025 half-year results call, Heineken reiterated its robust profit growth, despite facing macroeconomic challenges. The company reported a 7.4% increase in operating profit (beia) and a 2.1% organic growth in net revenue (beia) to €14.2 billion. Volume growth was slightly negative at -1.2%, but net revenue per liter (beia) improved by 3.3%. The Heineken brand showed a 4.5% volume growth, while operating margin increased by 26 basis points to 14.3%. Notably, Africa and the Middle East contributed significantly with a 19.8% organic net revenue rise and over 50% growth in operating profit (beia) in euros. The guidance for the full-year operating profit (beia) remains at an organic growth range of 4% to 8%.
Heineken Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Heineken shows mixed financials: revenue is declining modestly, margins have compressed from historical peaks, and leverage is rising with debt-to-equity exceeding 1.0. Positively, net income recovered strongly in 2025 to €1.89B, operating cash flow remains solid at €5B, and free cash flow of €2.6B comfortably covers earnings. The income statement score of 52, balance sheet score of 48, and cash flow score of 55 collectively reflect a stable but uninspiring financial profile with rising debt as a key concern.
Income Statement
52NeutralBalance Sheet
48NeutralCash Flow
55Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.71B | 28.75B | 29.82B | 30.36B | 28.72B | 21.94B |
| Gross Profit | 6.99B | 10.29B | 10.51B | 10.70B | 11.36B | 8.57B |
| EBITDA | 6.00B | 6.21B | 5.29B | 5.15B | 6.41B | 6.39B |
| Net Income | 2.28B | 1.89B | 978.00M | 2.30B | 2.68B | 3.32B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 58.02B | 53.75B | 53.77B | 55.15B | 53.42B | 49.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.83B | 4.77B | 2.35B | 2.38B | 2.77B | 3.25B |
| Total Debt | 20.64B | 19.28B | 17.05B | 18.24B | 16.38B | 16.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 36.32B | 33.14B | 31.37B | 32.36B | 31.50B | 30.12B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.11B | 17.98B | 19.58B | 20.06B | 19.55B | 17.36B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.00B | 2.61B | 3.04B | 1.75B | 2.48B | 2.58B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.94B | 5.01B | 5.50B | 4.43B | 4.50B | 4.18B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.99B | -2.46B | -2.44B | -3.58B | -2.29B | -2.29B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -329.05M | 153.00M | -2.57B | -816.00M | -3.13B | -2.87B |
Heineken Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HEINY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.40 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.21, above the 50-day MA of 41.57, and above the 200-day MA of 41.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.68 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HEINY.
Heineken Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
ABEV72Outperform
BUD72Outperform
STZ63Neutral
SAM60Neutral
TAP54Neutral- HEINY53Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | 72Outperform | $41.56B | 14.31 | 17.63% | 4.50% | 4.24% | 19.95% |
| BUD | 72Outperform | $159.66B | 13.29 | 13.31% | 1.60% | 6.60% | 31.61% |
| STZ | 63Neutral | $22.90B | 12.60 | 23.58% | 2.92% | -4.31% | 62.57% |
| Sector * | 62Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
| SAM | 60Neutral | $2.04B | -32.41 | -9.81% | ― | -3.71% | -180.44% |
| TAP | 54Neutral | $7.52B | -3.75 | -22.65% | 4.42% | -1.77% | -326.16% |
| HEINY | 53Neutral | $49.15B | 19.92 | 12.22% | 2.45% | 8.15% | 35.87% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HEINY | Heineken | 45.62 | 7.09 | 18.41% | |
| BUD | Anheuser-busch Inbev | 83.97 | 22.87 | 37.43% | |
| SAM | Boston Beer Company | 221.37 | 16.52 | 8.06% | |
| STZ | Constellation Brands | 140.67 | 15.17 | 12.09% | |
| TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | 43.23 | 1.45 | 3.46% | |
| ABEV | Ambev SA | 2.69 | 0.42 | 18.45% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 06, 2026