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Groupon
(NASDAQ:GRPN)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▼(-9.19% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/09/26
GRPN scores in the low-50s primarily due to weak financial performance: sharp TTM revenue decline, persistent losses, and a fragile balance sheet with negative equity and meaningful leverage. The score is supported by management’s reaffirmed full-year EBITDA/FCF targets and signs of operational progress (AI and marketing improvements), while technicals are mixed (longer-term uptrend but near-term softness) and valuation is difficult to assess due to negative earnings and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
AI-driven productivity
Project Foundry's AI gains are structural: doubled engineering output and faster support reduce operating cost per feature and speed go-to-market. Sustained AI-native productivity can lower SG&A intensity, enable scalable hyperlocal marketing, and improve unit economics over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Fragile balance sheet
Negative equity and sizable debt relative to assets constrain financial flexibility and heighten refinancing risk. Over 2-6 months this limits ability to fund investments, absorb shocks, or pursue M&A without dilutive financing, increasing downside in stress scenarios.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
AI-driven productivity
Project Foundry's AI gains are structural: doubled engineering output and faster support reduce operating cost per feature and speed go-to-market. Sustained AI-native productivity can lower SG&A intensity, enable scalable hyperlocal marketing, and improve unit economics over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Groupon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, indicating where the company is thriving and where it might need to boost performance.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, indicating where the company is thriving and where it might need to boost performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGroupon (GRPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$900.74M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.56
Revenue Growth1.98%
EPS Growth-1806.09%
CountryUS
Employees1,734
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.10
Shares Outstanding40,665,295
10 Day Avg. Volume1,600,135
30 Day Avg. Volume1,606,212
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.22
Price to Book (P/B)-16.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio14.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.33Price Target Upside6.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$520.10M
Groupon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Groupon, Inc., encompassing its various subsidiary entities, operates a digital platform designed to connect shoppers with businesses. The company's operational scope is geographically segmented into two primary areas: North America and its Intern...
How the Company Makes Money
Groupon primarily makes money by taking a share of the value of each deal sold on its platform (i.e., a commission/marketplace take rate). When a customer purchases a voucher or offer from Groupon, Groupon collects the payment (typically at the ti...
Groupon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful operational progress driven by the Foundry AI initiative, improved organic and managed-channel performance, clear leadership additions, and positive Q2 cash flow—balanced against a modest top-line decline (-1% YoY) concentrated in North America Local, ongoing migration execution risk, and a forecasted negative free cash flow quarter in Q3. Management conveyed momentum in July (mid-single-digit growth and double-digit organic gains) and reiterated full-year targets, but noted the acceleration depends on execution of AI, marketing, and supply initiatives.Positive Updates
Q2 Profitability and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA finished at the high end of guidance for Q2 and free cash flow was positive $15 million, demonstrating near-term profitability and strong cash generation.
Negative Updates
Q2 Top-Line Decline
Billings and revenue each declined 1% year-over-year in Q2, a top-line shortfall versus expectations concentrated in North America Local.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Profitability and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA finished at the high end of guidance for Q2 and free cash flow was positive $15 million, demonstrating near-term profitability and strong cash generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance: Q3 billings growth of 4%–6% year‑over‑year, revenue of $128M–$130M, adjusted EBITDA of $19M–$21M and negative free cash flow in the quarter; reaffirmed full‑year billings growth of 3%–5%, revenue of $513M–$523M, adjusted EBITDA of $75M–$80M and free cash flow of at least $60M (implying second‑half revenue growth of roughly 6%–10%), with July accelerating to mid‑single‑digit growth — for context Q2 saw billings and revenue each down 1% YoY, adjusted EBITDA at the high end of guidance and free cash flow of +$15M.Groupon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 497.41M | 498.42M | 492.56M | 514.91M | 599.09M | 967.11M |
| Gross Profit | 448.86M | 443.47M | 444.31M | 450.66M | 522.82M | 737.12M |
| EBITDA | -62.98M | -12.60M | 9.04M | 23.51M | -114.93M | 178.05M |
| Net Income | -125.66M | -83.52M | -59.03M | -55.41M | -237.61M | 118.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 599.68M | 670.41M | 612.69M | 570.96M | 793.12M | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 226.25M | 296.08M | 228.84M | 141.56M | 281.28M | 498.73M |
| Total Debt | 312.30M | 349.60M | 252.93M | 278.75M | 346.76M | 414.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 671.75M | 712.80M | 571.64M | 611.27M | 784.26M | 947.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | -72.18M | -42.56M | 40.81M | -40.63M | 8.47M | 209.87M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 29.95M | 49.87M | 39.97M | -97.27M | -174.83M | -176.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 44.27M | 64.50M | 55.89M | -77.98M | -135.99M | -123.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.26M | 6.42M | -6.81M | -1.40M | -38.84M | -45.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -73.87M | -7.51M | 47.79M | -35.69M | -34.41M | -183.85M |
Groupon Technical Analysis
Neutral
27.53
Price Trends
23.04
Negative
18.98
Positive
17.31
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
38.53
Neutral
7.85
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRPN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.37, above the 50-day MA of 23.04, and above the 200-day MA of 17.31, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GRPN.
Groupon Risk Analysis
Groupon disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Groupon reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Groupon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.28B | 11.56 | 18.61% | ― | 1.50% | -6.82% | |
69 Neutral | $1.05B | 9.54 | 12.80% | ― | 8.00% | 991.05% | |
68 Neutral | $786.63M | 7.58 | 8214.45% | ― | 13.84% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $986.46M | -32.82 | -7.27% | ― | 9.79% | 53.33% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $311.33M | 10.87 | 7.20% | ― | -0.18% | 63.89% | |
51 Neutral | $900.74M | -7.09 | 212.18% | ― | 1.98% | -1806.09% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GRPN
Groupon
21.98
-7.37
-25.11%
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Groupon Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Groupon Shareholders Approve Governance Changes and Officer Exculpation
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Groupon, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected six director nominees to the board to serve until the next annual meeting, ratified Deloitte Touche LLP as the independent registered public accou...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Groupon Names New COO to Drive Marketplace Transformation
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
Groupon, the Chicago-based experiences marketplace listed on Nasdaq as GRPN, connects consumers with local experiences and services, emphasizing value and customer acquisition for merchants. Its marketplace model positions the company at the inter...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Groupon Launches Workforce Restructuring to Support AI Strategy
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Groupon’s board approved an initial restructuring phase to support its AI-native strategy, planning a global workforce reduction of up to 400 positions by the end of the third quarter of 2026, subject to local legal processe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.