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GPGI
(NYSE:GPGI)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-15.38% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and highly volatile financial performance (revenue/profitability collapse and major balance sheet comparability risk), partially offset by constructive earnings-call guidance and solid free cash flow commentary. Technicals contribute modestly positive near-term momentum, while valuation remains challenged due to losses despite a supportive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
CompoSecure growth and margins
CompoSecure is demonstrating durable commercial traction through record sales, strong EBITDA growth, and very high margins. Its broadened customer base and continued demand provide an earnings-quality counterweight to weakness elsewhere, supporting sustained profitability and reinvestment capacity.
Negative Factors
Severe recent revenue and profitability deterioration
The sharp collapse in reported revenue and the TTM loss profile indicate that recent earnings power is not yet dependable. This deterioration overwhelms the benefit of historically strong gross margins, leaving the company exposed to continued operational disruption and weaker internal funding.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
CompoSecure growth and margins
CompoSecure is demonstrating durable commercial traction through record sales, strong EBITDA growth, and very high margins. Its broadened customer base and continued demand provide an earnings-quality counterweight to weakness elsewhere, supporting sustained profitability and reinvestment capacity.
Read all positive factors
GPGI Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
GPGI (GPGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.37B
Dividend Yield0.08%
Average Volume (3M)1.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.34
Revenue Growth-100.00%
EPS Growth-15.85%
CountryUS
Employees971
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Metal Fabrication
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.97
Shares Outstanding289,890,080
10 Day Avg. Volume1,397,120
30 Day Avg. Volume1,576,302
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-19.12
Price to Book (P/B)8.76
Price to Sales (P/S)35.62
P/FCF Ratio-91.57
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-2.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside10.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
GPGI Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GPGI, Inc. operates as a diversified holding company, focusing on the strategic acquisition, ownership, and growth of high-quality enterprises across various sectors. Its principal business units include CompoSecure, a specialist in metal payment ...
GPGI Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call combined strong, company-level positives — notably record performance and margin expansion at CompoSecure, significantly improved free cash flow, maintained full-year guidance, and visible progress from ROS — with meaningful, but described-as-transient, weakness at Husky (double-digit declines in sales and EBITDA and material YoY margin contraction). Management emphasized that Husky's headwinds are largely macro-driven and temporary, pointed to sequential improvement, double-digit pipeline growth and cost actions that should drive H2 recovery. Given the balance of a strong operating performance at CompoSecure, robust cash generation, reiterated guidance and a credible recovery plan for Husky, the tone of the call is constructive and management remains confident in the multi-year thesis.Positive Updates
Consolidated Q2 Financials and Guidance Reaffirmed
Pro forma adjusted net sales of $473.2M (down ~4% YoY) and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $113.9M (down ~13% YoY) were in line with expectations; management reiterated full-year guidance: pro forma net sales $1.95B–$2.1B, pro forma adjusted EBITDA $550M–$610M, and pro forma adjusted free cash flow $275M–$325M, which implies roughly flat revenue year-over-year and ~7% pro forma adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint.
Negative Updates
Husky Revenue and EBITDA Declines
Husky reported adjusted net sales of $339.6M (down ~9% YoY) and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $64.9M (down ~23% YoY), reflecting notable near-term weakness versus the prior year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Q2 Financials and Guidance Reaffirmed
Pro forma adjusted net sales of $473.2M (down ~4% YoY) and pro forma adjusted EBITDA of $113.9M (down ~13% YoY) were in line with expectations; management reiterated full-year guidance: pro forma net sales $1.95B–$2.1B, pro forma adjusted EBITDA $550M–$610M, and pro forma adjusted free cash flow $275M–$325M, which implies roughly flat revenue year-over-year and ~7% pro forma adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 pro forma guidance for net sales of $1.95–$2.10 billion, pro‑forma adjusted EBITDA of $550–$610 million and pro‑forma adjusted free cash flow of $275–$325 million (CFO minus capex, plus one‑time Husky transaction expenses), and adjusted the full‑year pro‑forma adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 27%–29% to reflect tariff pass‑through and mix; at the midpoint this implies roughly flat revenue YoY and ~7% pro‑forma adjusted EBITDA growth. Q2 came in line with those ranges: pro‑forma adjusted net sales $473.2M (‑4% YoY), pro‑forma adjusted EBITDA $113.9M (‑13% YoY), margin 24.1% (‑230 bps YoY) and ~ $63M pro‑forma adjusted free cash flow, while CompoSecure reported $133.6M sales (+12%), $55.2M adjusted EBITDA (+14%) and 41.3% margin (+70 bps) and Husky reported $339.6M sales (‑9%), $64.9M adjusted EBITDA (‑23%) and 19.1% margin (‑330 bps) with a ~590 bps sequential margin improvement; management reiterated confidence in a stronger H2, ROS‑driven margin recovery, a target of ~3x leverage by end‑2026 (long‑term 2.0–2.5x), and longer‑term goals of mid‑to‑high single‑digit organic growth, >100 bps annual margin expansion, double‑digit+ EBITDA growth and 90–100% free cash flow conversion.GPGI Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
36
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 59.82M | 420.57M | 390.63M | 378.48M | 267.95M |
| Gross Profit | -2.00K | 28.75M | 219.23M | 209.08M | 219.64M | 144.85M |
| EBITDA | -404.23M | -93.59M | -50.52M | 154.60M | 167.29M | 104.91M |
| Net Income | -316.07M | -136.00M | -53.72M | 19.24M | 18.66M | 3.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.46B | 517.27M | 478.23M | 201.04M | 162.94M | 131.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.70M | 114.64M | 77.46M | 41.22M | 13.64M | 21.94M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 205.53M | 350.86M | 375.37M | 393.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 290.10M | 274.13M | 621.68M | 406.81M | 454.94M | 539.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.17B | 243.14M | -143.45M | -802.36M | -892.23M | -1.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 42.06M | -23.27M | 120.04M | 93.37M | 83.73M | 73.03M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 41.67M | -22.88M | 127.45M | 104.31M | 92.78M | 77.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.12B | -60.69M | -9.95M | -10.94M | -9.05M | -4.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.08B | 120.75M | -81.26M | -65.79M | -92.03M | -64.51M |
GPGI Technical Analysis
Negative
13.59
Price Trends
13.52
Negative
13.60
Negative
16.87
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.42
Positive
39.76
Neutral
29.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.93, above the 50-day MA of 13.52, and below the 200-day MA of 16.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPGI.
GPGI Risk Analysis
GPGI disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GPGI reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GPGI Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $13.39B | 15.50 | 27.33% | 1.07% | 14.81% | 21.29% | |
76 Outperform | $3.05B | 18.52 | 16.19% | 1.24% | 18.44% | 54.40% | |
73 Outperform | $990.99M | 20.32 | 12.16% | ― | 15.12% | 50.31% | |
64 Neutral | $570.68M | 15.76 | 9.92% | 3.80% | 17.06% | 16.89% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
52 Neutral | $3.37B | -5.89 | -18.91% | 0.08% | -100.00% | -15.85% | |
49 Neutral | $437.59M | -20.67 | -6.63% | ― | 11.77% | -196.68% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GPGI
GPGI
11.61
-9.23
-44.29%
IIIN
Insteel Industries
29.48
-7.08
-19.36%
MLI
Mueller Industries
60.52
10.92
22.03%
NWPX
Northwest Pipe Company
102.83
50.71
97.29%
WOR
Worthington Industries
62.24
8.28
15.34%
MEC
Mayville Engineering Company
17.16
3.51
25.71%
GPGI Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
GPGI Declares Quarterly Dividend and Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Positive
Aug 6, 2026
GPGI’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.0025 per share on its Class A common stock, payable on September 1, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 17, 2026, underscoring continued capital returns alongside its multi-indust...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.