Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) AI Stock Analysis

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Galp Energia SGPS SA

(Other OTC:GLPEY)

Select Model

Rating:70Outperform

Price Target:$12.50▲(7.78% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:10/29/26

The score is supported primarily by strong financial recovery and positive earnings-call guidance. Reasonable valuation and a 3.47% dividend yield provide additional support, while weak technical momentum and sector-related earnings volatility constrain the result.

Positive Factors

Integrated energy modelGalp’s presence across production, processing, distribution, gas and power, and renewables creates multiple earnings channels within the energy value chain. This diversification can improve resilience across commodity and demand cycles while supporting cross-business optimization over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Meaningful leverageDebt running around the level of equity leaves Galp more exposed than a lower-leverage peer when commodity prices or refining conditions weaken. Leverage can amplify earnings pressure, constrain capital allocation, and reduce flexibility if investment needs rise during a cyclical downturn.

Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $34.19B
Dividend Yield: 3.44%
Average Volume (3M): 37.58K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.9
Beta (1Y): 0.26
Revenue Growth: 26.82%
EPS Growth: 11.01%
Country: US
Employees: 7,095
Sector: Energy
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated

Galp Energia SGPS SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. functions as a diversified energy enterprise, managing integrated operations both within Portugal and across various international markets. Its business is structured into four principal divisions. The Upstream segment concen...

How the Company Makes Money

Galp makes money primarily by producing, processing, and selling energy products and related services across multiple parts of the energy value chain. Upstream (exploration and production): The company earns revenue from selling crude oil, natural ga...

Galp Energia SGPS SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 25, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-9.83%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 21, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive. Galp reported strong operational performance, robust cash generation, stable net debt, raised full-year guidance, progress in Brazil and Namibia, strong commercial and refining performance, and an unchanged shareholder distribution policy. The main negatives were the termination of the Moeve discussions, elevated but temporary upstream costs, volatile freight and refining markets, and remaining uncertainty around the Venus FID and Namibia campaign results.

Positive Updates

Full-Year Guidance Raised

Following another strong quarter, Galp raised its full-year guidance to EBITDA of around $5 billion and operating cash flow close to $3.9 billion.

Negative Updates

Moeve Discussions Ended Without Agreement

Discussions with Moeve concluded without an agreement because the parties could not align on a sustainable, value-accretive partnership. Galp continues to view downstream consolidation as strategically compelling but stated that no deal is better than a bad deal.

Company Guidance

Galp now expects full-year EBITDA of around $5 billion and operating cash flow close to 3.9 billion; its current shareholder distribution policy remains 1/3 of OCF, with dividend per share growing at 10% per year this year. For 2027, Bacalhau is expected to be at plateau throughout the year, representing approximately 40 thousand barrels of Galp working interest, while depletion in the remaining Brazil assets is expected to remain Under 5%. Refining margins are expected to keep on the double figures, with a full-year refining margin scenario of around $25 a barrel and a double digit margin to 2027, at least the first quarter; legacy hedges for 2027 are slightly >15%. The Sines industrial business is expected to be positive cash flow next year, no major turnarounds are planned to 2027, and Galp’s share of Namibia carry is expected to be only 25% by Galp.

Galp Energia SGPS SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM recovery, improved margins, more than doubled operating cash flow, and lower leverage support the score. Cyclical earnings, moderate leverage, and below-historical cash-flow conversion remain limitations.

Income Statement

75Positive

Balance Sheet

72Positive

Cash Flow

76Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	24.06B	19.51B	21.31B	20.77B	26.84B	16.11B
Gross Profit	3.78B	2.34B	2.73B	3.98B	2.67B	1.83B
EBITDA	3.54B	2.37B	3.50B	3.75B	4.54B	1.81B
Net Income	1.03B	1.08B	1.04B	1.24B	1.48B	191.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.45B	15.32B	16.82B	16.61B	16.10B	14.91B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.48B	2.87B	2.44B	2.37B	2.74B	2.93B
Total Debt	4.79B	4.90B	4.91B	5.41B	5.26B	5.48B
Total Liabilities	12.76B	10.15B	11.18B	11.28B	10.98B	10.94B
Stockholders Equity	4.68B	4.42B	4.69B	4.41B	4.16B	3.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.72B	315.05M	1.15B	1.57B	1.99B	273.00M
Operating Cash Flow	2.67B	1.32B	2.53B	2.63B	3.07B	1.05B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.61B	-118.15M	-1.05B	-1.02B	-1.27B	-460.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.38B	-996.07M	-1.35B	-1.91B	-1.26B	-530.00M

Galp Energia SGPS SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price11.60

Price Trends

50DMA12.42Negative

100DMA11.78Negative

200DMA11.37Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.23Positive

RSI38.36Neutral

STOCH11.79Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GLPEY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.60 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.31, below the 50-day MA of 12.42, and above the 200-day MA of 11.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.79 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GLPEY.

Galp Energia SGPS SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

GLPEY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EQNR	79Outperform	$116.18B	10.11	27.45%	3.12%	12.89%	129.13%
SHEL	79Outperform	$307.19B	9.27	18.01%	2.78%	18.22%	136.13%
E	78Outperform	$88.93B	10.40	15.47%	4.01%	9.45%	204.92%
BP	75Outperform	$129.89B	24.36	15.61%	4.00%	26.40%	473.45%
PBR	74Outperform	$133.56B	5.75	30.55%	6.49%	20.82%	86.33%
GLPEY	70Outperform	$17.16B	15.86	22.91%	3.44%	26.82%	11.01%
Sector *	65Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GLPEY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
GLPEY	Galp Energia	11.60	1.53	15.21%
BP	BP plc.	50.39	17.21	51.88%
E	Eni S.P.A.	60.80	25.43	71.89%
PBR	Petroleo Brasileiro	22.05	11.06	100.66%
SHEL	Shell Plc	108.69	36.97	51.55%
EQNR	Equinor	48.75	25.62	110.76%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026

Galp Energia SGPS SA AI Stock Analysis

Galp Energia SGPS SA (GLPEY) AI Stock Analysis

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