Geron (GERN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $980.85M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 11.43M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: 22264.23%
• EPS Growth: 39.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 229
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 41
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 636,917,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,941,532
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,429,993
• PEG Ratio: -0.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.72
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.81
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.07
• 1Y Price Target: $4.08
• Price Target Upside: 155.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-6.25%Downside)

Geron's overall stock score is driven by financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative cash flows being significant concerns. Technical indicators provide mixed signals, while strategic initiatives in the earnings call offer potential for future improvements. However, the current valuation reflects the difficulties in achieving profitability.

Positive Factors

Expansion Strategy

Geron is expanding its commercial team by ~20% to increase product awareness.

Sales Growth

A positive trend is starting to emerge in the weekly sales data, which is viewed as encouraging.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

Rytelo net product revenues were below consensus and down due to inventory dynamics against flat demand.

Sales Performance

Geron reported Q1 Rytelo net sales of $39MM (-17% Q/Q), which is below our estimate of $49MM and consensus of $48MM.

Geron Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Geron Corporation, a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for myeloid hematologic malignancies. It develops imetelstat, a telomerase inhibitor that is in Phase 3 clinical trials, which inhibits the uncontrolled proliferation of malignant stem and progenitor cells in hematologic myeloid malignancies for the treatment of low or intermediate-1 risk myelodysplastic syndromes and intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Foster City, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Geron Corporation generates revenue primarily through collaboration agreements, licensing deals, and potential milestone payments related to its drug development programs. The company focuses on partnerships with larger pharmaceutical firms to co-develop its lead product candidate, imetelstat. These collaborations often provide upfront payments, research funding, and royalties on future sales if the product successfully reaches the market. Additionally, Geron may earn revenue from grants and research-related funding that support its ongoing clinical trials and development efforts.

Geron Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Geron faces significant financial challenges with negative profitability and cash flow metrics, although there are signs of revenue growth. The balance sheet shows a heavily leveraged structure, which could pose risks but offer growth opportunities if managed well.

Income Statement

Geron's income statement shows a challenging financial position with consistent net losses and negative EBIT and EBITDA margins over the years. Despite a significant increase in total revenue in 2024, the company still reported a substantial net loss. The revenue growth is promising but overshadowed by the high costs leading to negative profitability margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio indicating significant leverage, but the company has been able to maintain positive equity levels. The equity ratio has been stable, suggesting a moderate balance between debt and equity funding. Overall, the company's asset base has grown, but liabilities have also increased significantly.

Cash Flow

Geron's cash flow analysis indicates negative operating and free cash flows, reflecting challenges in generating cash from operations. Despite this, the company has managed to secure substantial financing inflows. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains concerning, emphasizing the need for improved operational cash generation.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
76.99M	237.00K	596.00K	1.39M	253.00K
	Gross Profit
75.74M	-123.50M	-272.00K	610.00K	-49.80M
	EBIT
-173.73M	-193.94M	-138.55M	-114.00M	-76.91M
	EBITDA
-154.85M	-174.78M	-134.15M	-111.59M	-73.92M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-174.57M	-184.13M	-141.03M	-120.95M	-75.61M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
406.57M	333.70M	173.11M	183.72M	196.64M
	Total Assets
594.46M	394.08M	190.57M	226.03M	270.73M
	Total Debt
121.72M	85.90M	55.75M	55.00M	29.72M
	Net Debt
42.70M	15.88M	-1.46M	20.13M	19.43M
	Total Liabilities
313.46M	146.13M	110.58M	99.62M	59.78M
	Stockholders Equity
280.32M	247.95M	80.00M	126.42M	210.95M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-219.30M	-168.57M	-127.81M	-95.76M	-67.05M
	Operating Cash Flow
-218.62M	-167.74M	-127.38M	-95.56M	-66.65M
	Investing Cash Flow
-106.00M	-180.32M	62.07M	71.95M	-105.32M
	Financing Cash Flow
334.37M	362.02M	87.26M	48.56M	168.35M

Geron Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GERN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.40, above the 50-day MA of 1.40, and below the 200-day MA of 2.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.94 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GERN.

Geron Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.24B	3.27	-45.39%	2.80%	16.77%	-0.07%
GERN	51 Neutral	$980.85M	―	-45.35%	―	22264.23%	39.09%
VRDN	51 Neutral	$1.16B	―	-49.41%	―	4.86%	10.13%
PLSE	44 Neutral	$1.10B	―	-77.86%	―	―	-1.00%
SYRE	43 Neutral	$997.04M	2.31	-50.47%	―	-100.00%	94.68%
IOVA	41 Neutral	$611.10M	―	-51.85%	―	11070.12%	32.07%
ELVN	36 Underperform	$1.05B	―	-31.30%	―	―	12.85%

Geron Corporate Events

Geron Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On May 21, 2025, Geron Corporation held its annual stockholders meeting where several key proposals were approved. The meeting, conducted virtually, saw stockholders approve amendments to the company’s 2018 Equity Incentive Plan and 2014 Employee Stock Purchase Plan, increasing the number of shares issuable under these plans by 20,000,000 and 6,000,000 respectively. Additionally, the stockholders elected two Class II directors and ratified the selection of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GERN) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geron stock, see the GERN Stock Forecast page.

Geron Announces Leadership Change with New Interim CEO

On March 10, 2025, John A. Scarlett, M.D. concluded his role as President, CEO, and Chairman of the Board at Geron Corporation, with Dawn C. Bir appointed as Interim President and CEO. This leadership transition is significant as it may impact Geron’s strategic direction and stakeholder interests, with Ms. Bir bringing extensive experience from her roles in various pharmaceutical companies.