Geo Group (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.67B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.86M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 139.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: 0.50%
• EPS Growth: -71.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 91
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 141,342,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,715,062
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,860,289
• PEG Ratio: 0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.28
• 1Y Price Target: $37.80
• Price Target Upside: 45.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $28.00 ▲(7.98%Upside)

Geo Group's overall stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. The company's operational efficiency and strong cash flows are positive, but they are offset by high leverage and valuation concerns. Strategic initiatives and recent corporate events provide optimism for future growth, though technical indicators suggest caution in the near term.

Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The GEO Group, Inc. engages in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, reentry facilities, and processing centers in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. It operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. The company provides counseling, education, and treatment for alcohol and drug abuse problems at various facilities; and compliance technologies for monitoring services, and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. It also offers secure facility management services, including security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services at secure services facilities; reentry services comprising supervision of individuals in community-based programs and reentry centers, and provision of temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; and supervision and reporting services that improves the participation of non-detained aliens in the immigration court system. In addition, the company provides secure transportation services; and rehabilitation services, such as evidence-based, including cognitive behavioral treatment and post-release services, as well as academic and vocational classes in life skills and treatment programs under the GEO Continuum of Care platform; and develops new facilities based on contract, as well as designs, constructs, and finances the facilities. The GEO Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

The GEO Group generates revenue primarily through contracts with government agencies at the federal, state, and local levels. These contracts typically involve the management and operation of correctional and detention facilities, where GEO is paid a per diem rate for each individual housed in its facilities. Additionally, GEO earns income from its community-based services, including residential reentry centers and electronic monitoring services, which provide supervision and support for individuals transitioning back into society. GEO's revenue streams are further supported by long-term contracts, often with fixed annual payments, providing a stable financial outlook. Partnerships with governments and a focus on rehabilitation and reentry programs contribute significantly to GEO's earnings by aligning with broader public policy goals aimed at reducing incarceration rates and enhancing public safety.

Geo Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The Geo Group's financial performance is mixed with operational efficiency indicated by stable EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, the net profit margin remains low due to challenges in managing non-operational costs. The balance sheet shows high leverage, posing financial risk, but strong cash flow metrics highlight effective cash generation.

Income Statement

The Geo Group's revenue has shown modest growth, with a revenue increase from 2024 to 2025 TTM. However, the gross profit margin is consistently high due to the company's unique cost structure. Net profit margin remains low, indicating challenges in managing non-operational costs. EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable, reflecting consistent operational efficiency despite a slight decline in EBIT over the periods.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. However, the company has maintained a stable equity ratio, indicating a reasonable level of assets funded by equity. Return on equity fluctuates, highlighting variable net income results impacting shareholders' returns.

Cash Flow

Geo Group demonstrates strong operating cash flow relative to net income, indicating efficient cash generation. Free cash flow has decreased from previous periods, but the company maintains a positive cash flow, which supports ongoing operations. The ratio of free cash flow to net income is healthy, signifying effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.42B	2.42B	2.41B	2.38B	2.26B	2.35B
Gross Profit	2.42B	2.42B	668.94M	713.00M	627.57M	571.77M
EBITDA	337.19M	355.44M	482.12M	516.87M	423.26M	385.23M
Net Income	28.86M	31.97M	107.33M	171.81M	77.42M	113.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.63B	3.63B	3.70B	3.76B	4.54B	4.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	64.82M	76.90M	93.97M	95.07M	506.49M	283.52M
Total Debt	1.78B	1.81B	1.89B	2.08B	3.06B	3.05B
Total Liabilities	2.29B	2.30B	2.41B	2.60B	3.56B	3.55B
Stockholders Equity	1.34B	1.33B	1.29B	1.17B	975.02M	912.08M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	135.48M	163.54M	211.93M	206.39M	213.24M	332.93M
Operating Cash Flow	230.18M	242.24M	284.93M	296.41M	282.63M	441.73M
Investing Cash Flow	-118.09M	-101.72M	-60.57M	2.96M	-53.74M	-104.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-188.21M	-168.89M	-208.08M	-699.10M	11.26M	-96.74M

Geo Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 25.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.68, below the 50-day MA of 26.37, and above the 200-day MA of 25.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GEO.

Geo Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	79 Outperform	$1.10B	25.13	27.48%	1.81%	-1.05%	-2.78%
REZI	77 Outperform	$3.52B	60.03	2.58%	―	14.02%	-69.91%
ARLO	73 Outperform	$1.63B	―	-21.34%	―	0.27%	-18.75%
ADT	72 Outperform	$7.13B	14.58	16.26%	2.58%	-5.44%	-16.05%
BCO	70 Neutral	$3.91B	24.97	54.50%	1.09%	1.97%	41.88%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$10.85B	15.47	5.22%	1.89%	3.09%	-26.84%
GEO	61 Neutral	$3.67B	139.63	2.12%	―	0.50%	-71.85%

Geo Group Corporate Events

Geo Group Extends Executive Chairman’s Term and Compensation

On July 7, 2025, Geo Group, Inc. extended the employment term of Executive Chairman George C. Zoley to April 2, 2029, and increased his compensation package, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on leveraging his expertise amidst unprecedented business opportunities. Similarly, adjustments were made to CEO J. David Donahue’s compensation, recognizing his extensive experience as vital to guiding the company through current opportunities in the corrections and detention industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.

Geo Group Sells Lawton Facility to Oklahoma

On June 3, 2025, The GEO Group, Inc. entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement to sell the Lawton Correctional Facility in Oklahoma to the State of Oklahoma for $312 million. The sale, expected to close on July 25, 2025, will transition facility operations to the Oklahoma Department of Corrections, a current customer of GEO. This transaction is anticipated to significantly reduce GEO’s debt and enhance long-term shareholder value, reflecting the intrinsic value of the company’s owned facilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GEO) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Geo Group stock, see the GEO Stock Forecast page.