Greif Class B (GEF.B) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Greif’s fiscal '27 guidance is adjusted EBITDA of $645 million, including $60 million of favorable price/cost, $33 million from improved URB pricing relative to OCC cost, $20 million of transportation and other non-raw material cost inflation, a $10 million tailwind from incremental Envaplast ownership and partial year benefits from the Sweetwater closure, and a $5 million currency headwind; volume assumptions represent an $11 million headwind driven by low single-digit declines in metals, with flat volumes in polymers, fiber and closures, while SG&A represents an $11 million net headwind as approximately $15 million of structural cost savings are more than offset by $30 million of inflation and strategic investments. Low-end adjusted free cash flow guidance is $290 million, assuming $185 million of CapEx, $50 million of cash interest, $80 million of cash taxes, $40 million largely related to restructuring and pension costs, and flat working capital; Q1 is expected to be approximately 20% of total EBITDA guidance and have flat EBITDA margins in Q1 of '26. Greif is raising its structural cost-savings target to $150 million by the end of fiscal '27, and its fiscal '27 CapEx guidance is $185 million, including around $85 million of maintenance and another $5 million to $10 million on safety.