Golden Entertainment (GDEN) AI Stock Analysis

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Golden Entertainment

(NASDAQ:GDEN)

Rating:61Neutral

Price Target:

$30.00

▲(4.79%Upside)

Golden Entertainment's overall stock score reflects a mix of moderate financial performance and high valuation concerns. Positive technical indicators and operational efficiencies noted in the earnings call provide some support, but significant challenges remain, particularly in terms of profitability and strategic growth opportunities.

Positive Factors

Shareholder Value

Management remains proactive in unlocking shareholder value through buybacks or utilizing its strong balance sheet and real estate ownership.

Valuation

Analyst's price target of $38 implies a 23% upside, based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation on 2026 estimated EBITDA.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Golden Entertainment posts mixed results in 4Q24, missing revenue expectations by 2%.

Stock Performance

The share price of Golden Entertainment Inc has underperformed by 15% compared to the S&P 500 over the last twelve months.

Golden Entertainment (GDEN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$756.31M

Dividend Yield3.5%

Average Volume (3M)169.61K

Price to Earnings (P/E)73.2

Beta (1Y)1.09

Revenue Growth-31.14%

EPS Growth-95.88%

CountryUS

Employees5,300

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength78

IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.05

Shares Outstanding26,435,286

10 Day Avg. Volume175,577

30 Day Avg. Volume169,607

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.76

Price to Book (P/B)1.64

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio15.26

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.49

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.39

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.05

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.10

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$37.00

Price Target Upside29.24% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Golden Entertainment Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGolden Entertainment, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and operation of a diversified entertainment platform in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Nevada Casino Resorts, Nevada Locals Casinos, Maryland Casino Resort, and Distributed Gaming. The Nevada Casino Resorts segment comprises of destination casino resort properties that include various food and beverage outlets, entertainment venues, and other amenities. The Nevada Locals Casinos segment consists of casino properties that cater to local customers. The Maryland Casino Resort segment operates Rocky Gap casino resort, including various food and beverage outlets, signature golf course, spa, and pool. The Distributed Gaming segment operates slot machines and amusement devices in non-casino locations, such as restaurants, bars, taverns, convenience stores, liquor stores, and grocery stores. As of February 17, 2022, the company operated approximately 16,900 slots, 120 table games, and 6,200 hotel rooms; 10 casinos; and video gaming devices at 1,100 locations, as well as owned 60 traditional taverns. The company was formerly known as Lakes Entertainment, Inc. and changed its name to Golden Entertainment, Inc. in July 2015. Golden Entertainment, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

How the Company Makes MoneyGolden Entertainment generates revenue primarily through its casino operations, which include gaming activities such as slot machines, table games, and other casino-related services. The company also earns income from its taverns, which offer food, beverages, and gaming options. Another significant revenue stream comes from its distributed gaming operations, where Golden Entertainment places gaming devices in third-party locations and shares the revenue with the venue owners. This diversified approach allows the company to capitalize on various aspects of the gaming and hospitality industries, while strategic partnerships and acquisitions enhance its market presence and operational efficiency.

Golden Entertainment Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 10.37%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a mixed performance with strong operational efficiencies and a robust liquidity position, but challenges remain, particularly with declining occupancy at The Strat and increased tavern competition. The company is focusing on share repurchases due to limited M&A opportunities.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Start to Q2 for The Strat

Hotel revenue at The Strat is up in April with higher occupancy and rates, leading to improved EBITDA. Occupancy is pacing up 6% over last year for May, with June also showing strength.

Operational Efficiencies Boost Nevada Locals' Casinos

Revenue for Nevada locals' casinos was flat year-over-year, but EBITDA was up 2%, driven by operational efficiencies, with EBITDA margins at 46% for the second straight quarter.

Successful Share Repurchases

Since 2024, the company repurchased 3.2 million shares totaling almost $100 million and paid out $35 million in dividends. $92 million remains on the current buyback authorization.

Low Net Leverage and Strong Liquidity Position

The company ended the quarter with just over $400 million of debt, $50 million in cash, and $225 million available under the revolving credit facility, with a low net leverage at 2.4 times EBITDA.

Negative Updates

Declining Occupancy at The Strat Due to Super Bowl Impact

The Strat experienced a $3 million EBITDA headwind from last year's Super Bowl, with occupancy down 5% for the quarter and 13% in February.

Slight Decline in Tavern Revenue and EBITDA

Tavern revenue and EBITDA were down slightly year-over-year, though EBITDA increased sequentially over Q4. There is increased promotional activity from smaller private operators, which may impact Q2 performance.

Limited M&A Opportunities

The company notes limited M&A opportunities in the market, with current assets having high price expectations relative to their quality. The macroeconomic environment and interest rates are also dampening strategic M&A discussions.

Company Guidance

In the Golden Entertainment, Inc. First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance indicating stable operating trends and a promising start for the second quarter, despite not hosting last year's Super Bowl, which impacted The Strat's EBITDA by $3 million. The Strat's occupancy was down 5% for the quarter, with a significant 13% drop in February. However, The Strat's hotel revenue has improved in April with higher occupancy and rates, and May's occupancy is pacing 6% higher year-over-year. Nevada locals' casinos maintained a 46% EBITDA margin for two consecutive quarters, with revenue flat but EBITDA up by 2% due to operational efficiencies. The company ended Q1 with over $400 million in debt, $50 million in cash, and $225 million available under its revolving credit facility, maintaining a low net leverage of 2.4 times EBITDA. Despite some challenges in the tavern market due to increased competition, EBITDA from the taverns improved sequentially over Q4. The company repurchased 274,000 shares worth $7.6 million during Q1 and has $92 million remaining on its buyback authorization. The management emphasized prioritizing share repurchases over M&A due to current market conditions and continues to focus on strengthening the core business and leveraging favorable economic trends in Nevada.

Golden Entertainment Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Golden Entertainment's financial health is moderate, with declining revenue and profitability indicating operational challenges. High leverage is a concern but offset by a strengthened equity position. Stable cash flow suggests cautious liquidity management, but growth is limited.

Income Statement

Neutral

Golden Entertainment shows a mixed financial performance with several challenges. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) results indicate a decline in revenue and profitability compared to the previous year. Gross Profit Margin and Net Profit Margin are decreasing, indicating pressure on both top-line and bottom-line performance. Revenue growth has been negative, which is concerning for future prospects. However, the company maintains a positive EBITDA Margin, suggesting operational resilience.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with notable leverage. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio remains high, indicating significant reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. However, the Return on Equity (ROE) is positive, suggesting that the company is generating returns on shareholders' investment. The Equity Ratio has improved from previous years, indicating a stronger equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow performance is relatively stable with positive free cash flow, although growth is limited. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio indicates healthy cash generation relative to net income, which is a positive sign for liquidity. However, the Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is low, reflecting challenges in expanding cash flow from operations. The company has managed to maintain positive cash flows despite a challenging operating environment.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
653.61M	666.82M	1.05B	1.12B	1.10B	694.15M
	Gross Profit
369.36M	375.29M	475.55M	504.46M	513.17M	286.98M
	EBIT
43.05M	112.12M	399.21M	147.95M	227.30M	-28.96M
	EBITDA
128.99M	197.71M	486.89M	249.00M	331.76M	56.99M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
11.27M	50.73M	255.76M	82.35M	161.78M	-136.61M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
404.34M	57.73M	157.55M	136.89M	220.54M	103.56M
	Total Assets
1.50B	1.08B	1.45B	1.51B	1.62B	1.57B
	Total Debt
760.77M	504.04M	758.19M	1.07B	1.21B	1.33B
	Net Debt
356.43M	446.32M	600.64M	928.31M	986.24M	1.23B
	Total Liabilities
932.31M	605.68M	914.55M	1.16B	1.30B	1.41B
	Stockholders Equity
569.62M	474.23M	537.73M	352.92M	319.54M	161.26M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
49.56M	42.44M	33.33M	98.78M	266.52M	233.00K
	Operating Cash Flow
95.11M	92.34M	119.20M	150.20M	295.77M	36.73M
	Investing Cash Flow
-53.26M	147.23M	266.92M	-51.27M	-28.89M	-35.85M
	Financing Cash Flow
-395.69M	-379.44M	-330.56M	-177.44M	-149.91M	-9.00M

Golden Entertainment Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price28.63

Price Trends

50DMA

26.85

Positive

100DMA

28.97

Negative

200DMA

30.02

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.54

Negative

RSI

58.17

Neutral

STOCH

55.53

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GDEN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.79, above the 50-day MA of 26.85, and below the 200-day MA of 30.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GDEN.

Golden Entertainment Risk Analysis

Golden Entertainment disclosed 28 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Golden Entertainment reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Golden Entertainment Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ACEL	76 Outperform	$949.68M	22.71	18.42%	―	6.28%	-1.99%
AGS	73 Outperform	$507.61M	10.64	49.64%	―	6.60%	778.46%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.91B	11.20	2.94%	3.92%	2.69%	-25.04%
EVRI	62 Neutral	$1.23B	87.17	5.81%	―	-6.41%	-75.66%
GDEN	61 Neutral	$756.31M	73.20	2.18%	3.50%	-31.14%	-95.88%
BALY	49 Neutral	$741.76M	―	-65.87%	―	-1.93%	15.16%
MSC	38 Underperform	$605.81M	―	-16.16%	―	19.57%	10.86%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GDEN

Golden Entertainment

28.63

0.35

1.24%

EVRI

Everi Holdings

14.13

7.33

107.79%

ACEL

Accel Entertainment

11.25

1.66

17.31%

AGS

Playags

12.24

0.72

6.25%

MSC

Studio City International Holdings

2.90

-4.85

-62.58%

BALY

Bally's Corporation

9.96

-12.11

-54.87%

Golden Entertainment Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Golden Entertainment Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

Neutral

May 23, 2025

Golden Entertainment, Inc. held its 2025 annual meeting of shareholders on May 22, 2025, where several key proposals were approved. Shareholders approved the amended and restated 2015 Incentive Award Plan, the election of directors, and the compensation of named executive officers, among other proposals. The board also decided to hold future advisory votes on executive compensation annually.

The most recent analyst rating on (GDEN) stock is a Buy with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Golden Entertainment stock, see the GDEN Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes

Golden Entertainment Announces New Chief Accounting Officer

Neutral

Mar 18, 2025

Golden Entertainment, Inc. announced the retirement of Thomas E. Haas, Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, effective March 21, 2025. His retirement is amicable, and he will receive a separation package including salary continuation and benefits. Viktoryia G. Pulliam will succeed him as the new Chief Accounting Officer, bringing over 15 years of financial leadership experience, including a significant tenure at Deloitte & Touche.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.