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Genesco
(NYSE:GCO)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
▲(10.02% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/14/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (profitability and free cash flow rebounding) but constrained by weakening revenue and above-average leverage. Valuation is a positive (low P/E), while technicals are neutral-to-soft due to negative MACD and mixed moving-average positioning. The earnings call adds modest support from improved EPS and margin guidance, partially offset by lower sales expectations and near-term Q3 pressure.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Recent operating and free cash flow indicate that reported earnings are converting into liquidity, giving Genesco resources to fund operations and strategic initiatives. This improves financial resilience over the next several quarters, although consistency remains important to sustaining that benefit.
Negative Factors
Sales Pressure
The lower sales outlook signals that Genesco's earnings recovery is occurring against a weak top-line backdrop. Persistent pressure, particularly at Schuh, can reduce operating leverage, limit inventory flexibility, and make margin gains harder to sustain across the business.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Recent operating and free cash flow indicate that reported earnings are converting into liquidity, giving Genesco resources to fund operations and strategic initiatives. This improves financial resilience over the next several quarters, although consistency remains important to sustaining that benefit.
Read all positive factors
Genesco (GCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$391.04M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)189.12K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.9
Beta (1Y)1.87
Revenue Growth3.00%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees16,000
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.04
Shares Outstanding10,820,152
10 Day Avg. Volume114,787
30 Day Avg. Volume189,116
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.13
Price to Book (P/B)0.53
Price to Sales (P/S)0.12
P/FCF Ratio3.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.42
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.39
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.83
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.70
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.50Price Target Upside23.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.43B
Genesco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Genesco Inc. operates as a retailer and wholesaler of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company operates through four segments: Journeys Group, Schuh Group, Johnston & Murphy Group, and Genesco Brands Group. The Journeys Group segment offers...
How the Company Makes Money
Genesco makes money primarily by selling footwear and related accessories through a multi-channel retail model that includes physical stores and direct-to-consumer e-commerce. The largest revenue driver is retail merchandise sales under its key ba...
Genesco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 03, 2026
(Q2-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly optimistic. Management reported meaningful earnings improvement, gross-margin expansion, strong momentum at Journeys and Johnston & Murphy, progress at Schuh, structural cost savings, and a full-year EPS outlook at the high end of the prior range. These positives outweighed the declining quarterly sales, weaker Schuh performance, challenging consumer environment, expected second-half sales pressure, and temporary third-quarter operating-income decline.Positive Updates
Quarterly Earnings Significantly Improved
Second-quarter bottom-line results were significantly better than last year and well ahead of expectations, with every business achieving gains versus plan. Adjusted operating loss improved by $6 million to $8 million versus a $14 million loss last year, and adjusted diluted loss per share improved to $0.83 from $1.14.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Comparable Sales Declined
Second-quarter revenue decreased 3% to $530 million, and overall comparable sales declined 1%. The company ended the quarter with 67 net fewer stores than a year ago, representing approximately 5% of its fleet and square footage and approximately 2% of sales.
Read all updates
Q2-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Earnings Significantly Improved
Second-quarter bottom-line results were significantly better than last year and well ahead of expectations, with every business achieving gains versus plan. Adjusted operating loss improved by $6 million to $8 million versus a $14 million loss last year, and adjusted diluted loss per share improved to $0.83 from $1.14.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Genesco now expects fiscal 27 adjusted diluted earnings per share to be at the high end up from the middle, of its previously increased range of $2 to $2.40; full year comparable sales are expected to be flat versus the prior expectation of up 1% to 2%, total sales down approximately 2% versus the prior expectation of down 1% to flat, gross margin expansion of 60 to 80 basis points versus 50 to 60 basis points, SG&A as a percentage of sales to deleverage approximately 30 basis points versus flat to 20 basis points of deleverage, adjusted operating income within the prior range of $34 million to $40 million with the higher end of the range up from the middle now the most likely outcome, an adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 30%, and a weighted average diluted share count of approximately 10.8 million shares; fiscal 27 is expected to realize up to $20 million of savings, with the remaining $20 million to $30 million expected over the following 2 years. For the third quarter, the company expects roughly flat comparable sales, total sales down a little over 4% to 4.5%, $14 million of loss from license exits, gross margin expansion of 90 to 100 basis points, SG&A deleverage that will more than offset the gross margin expansion, 100 basis points of pressure from increased marketing and investment, a tax rate of approximately 7% to 8%, operating income to be moderately below last year, and EPS to be $0.05 to $0.15 higher.Genesco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.43B | 2.44B | 2.33B | 2.32B | 2.38B | 2.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.13B | 1.13B | 1.10B | 1.10B | 1.14B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 88.34M | 70.71M | 66.72M | 35.84M | 136.11M | 198.41M |
| Net Income | 41.63M | 13.27M | -18.89M | -16.83M | 71.92M | 114.85M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.50B | 1.39B | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.46B | 1.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 57.13M | 105.41M | 34.01M | 35.16M | 47.99M | 320.52M |
| Total Debt | 583.91M | 521.38M | 485.09M | 522.94M | 580.43M | 632.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 947.26M | 825.93M | 788.57M | 758.69M | 849.46M | 959.63M |
| Stockholders Equity | 556.98M | 567.04M | 546.97M | 571.20M | 606.97M | 602.47M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 135.89M | 83.71M | 46.75M | 34.49M | -224.82M | 185.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 134.06M | 145.76M | 87.89M | 94.80M | -164.88M | 239.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -60.22M | -62.05M | -41.13M | -60.00M | -59.93M | -33.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -58.15M | -13.32M | -47.00M | -47.58M | -45.53M | -101.17M |
Genesco Technical Analysis
Positive
33.63
Price Trends
35.13
Positive
35.83
Positive
32.97
Positive
Market Momentum
0.48
Negative
56.85
Neutral
79.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.82, below the 50-day MA of 35.13, and above the 200-day MA of 32.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCO.
Genesco Risk Analysis
Genesco disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Genesco reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Genesco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $2.27B | 10.16 | 46.91% | 9.89% | 6.22% | 8.74% | |
60 Neutral | $420.96M | 7.64 | 8.38% | 2.28% | 7.32% | -13.12% | |
58 Neutral | $391.04M | 8.95 | 7.60% | ― | 3.00% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $359.37M | 9.63 | 5.49% | 5.04% | -4.13% | -61.14% | |
56 Neutral | $138.87M | 65.92 | 2.37% | 12.82% | 6.07% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
50 Neutral | $226.89M | 17.64 | 4.21% | ― | 3.61% | 7189.81% |
* General Sector Average
GCO
Genesco
36.16
7.49
26.12%
BKE
Buckle
44.51
-4.86
-9.85%
SHOE
Shoe Station Group
13.10
-5.89
-31.02%
TLYS
Tilly's
4.68
3.03
183.64%
ZUMZ
Zumiez
14.11
-6.80
-32.52%
CAL
Caleres
12.30
-0.36
-2.83%
Genesco Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Genesco announces leadership transition for strategy and digital
Neutral
Aug 6, 2026
Genesco announced that Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy and Digital Officer Parag D. Desai will retire effective October 31, 2026, after joining the company in 2014 and becoming Chief Strategy and Digital Officer in April 2021. Effective Augu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Genesco Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Incentive Plan
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
Genesco Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on July 21, 2026, with approximately 85.63% of eligible shares represented, establishing a quorum for key governance decisions. Shareholders elected nine company-nominated directors to serve unt...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Genesco Appoints Jonathan Collins as New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 29, 2026, Genesco announced that it has appointed Jonathan Collins as Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, with effect from August 3, 2026, succeeding CEO Mimi E. Vaughn in the interim finance role. Collins will also...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.