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Vistry Group
(LSE:VTY)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
294.00 p
▼(-5.89% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and earnings volatility (including significant near-term pressures highlighted on the earnings call), despite a comparatively conservative balance sheet. Technicals are mixed with a short-term rebound but lingering longer-term weakness, and valuation is difficult to support with a negative P/E and no dividend yield data provided.
Positive Factors
Conservative leverage and balance-sheet flexibility
Conservative leverage gives Vistry greater capacity to manage housing-cycle volatility, fund selected development activity, and absorb operational setbacks. A sizable equity base and covenant headroom also reduce immediate financial pressure while management works to improve returns and release capital.
Negative Factors
Compressed margins and weaker earnings quality
The sharp margin contraction indicates that Vistry’s current earnings power is materially below prior-cycle levels. Low profitability leaves less room to absorb build, pricing or financing pressures, while reduced ROE suggests the enlarged capital base is currently being used less efficiently.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative leverage and balance-sheet flexibility
Conservative leverage gives Vistry greater capacity to manage housing-cycle volatility, fund selected development activity, and absorb operational setbacks. A sizable equity base and covenant headroom also reduce immediate financial pressure while management works to improve returns and release capital.
Read all positive factors
Vistry Group (VTY) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£793.41M
Dividend Yield7.03%
Average Volume (3M)2.38M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.54
Revenue Growth-7.99%
EPS Growth-5071.71%
CountryUK
Employees4,407
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.58
Shares Outstanding318,063,140
10 Day Avg. Volume3,573,635
30 Day Avg. Volume2,377,423
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio14.32
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£277.67Price Target Upside-11.12% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)£3.93B
Vistry Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vistry Group PLC, along with its subsidiaries, functions as a leading residential developer across the United Kingdom. The company's portfolio includes a diverse selection of family residences, from single-bedroom properties to spacious five-bedro...
How the Company Makes Money
Vistry primarily makes money by developing and selling newly built residential properties and by delivering residential developments through partnership arrangements.
1) Open-market housebuilding (private sales)
- Revenue is generated from the sa...
Vistry Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call was mixed and forward-looking. Current performance was materially challenged by an GBP 83.3 million first-half loss, weak open-market and partner volumes, substantial CEO review charges, a GBP 475 million goodwill impairment, and elevated building safety costs. However, management highlighted strong affordable-housing demand, a GBP 350 million SAHP grant award, significant partner commitments, covenant support, progress on stock and land-creditor reduction, and a detailed plan targeting lower debt, higher margins, and 30%+ ROCE by FY 2031. The positive strategic outlook and deleveraging actions were substantial but balanced by significant near-term financial and operational challenges.Positive Updates
Affordable Housing Grant Allocation
Vistry received a GBP 350 million direct grant allocation from the GBP 9.6 billion SAHP award, the top allocation, with 29 of the 33 grant recipients already Vistry partners. Management said this demonstrated market confidence in Vistry as a key affordable housing deliverer.
Negative Updates
First-Half Loss
The first half produced an GBP 83.3 million loss including CEO review items, compared with the GBP 30 million loss excluding those items previously reported. The result was adverse to the prior year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Affordable Housing Grant Allocation
Vistry received a GBP 350 million direct grant allocation from the GBP 9.6 billion SAHP award, the top allocation, with 29 of the 33 grant recipients already Vistry partners. Management said this demonstrated market confidence in Vistry as a key affordable housing deliverer.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For FY 2026, the maximum APBT being guided to is GBP 125 million, with the current estimate for combined actions at GBP 470 million and profit before tax of GBP 975 million; for FY 2027, the target is APBT of GBP 185 million, average daily net debt of GBP 500 million, a sales rate of 0.52, stable versus the market we see today open market conditions, a better partner market than 2026, and PRS not improving through the first half of next year but with some return of the PRS market in the second half of next year. In the medium term, guidance is 12,000 units, a 60/40 split between partner and private, a 12% margin, APBT of circa GBP 400 million, a 30% plus return on capital employed, average net debt of GBP 300 million, 36,000 owned plots, and capital employed of GBP 1.5 billion; the FY 2031 targets also include operating profit of GBP 450 million, and 100% free cash flow conversion.Vistry Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.40B | 3.61B | 3.78B | 3.56B | 2.77B | 2.41B |
| Gross Profit | 192.70M | 358.00M | 291.70M | 545.40M | 413.70M | 445.02M |
| EBITDA | -27.00M | 203.90M | 213.90M | 415.30M | 248.50M | 341.00M |
| Net Income | -500.30M | 138.00M | 74.50M | 223.40M | 204.30M | 254.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.80B | 6.38B | 6.04B | 6.09B | 6.02B | 3.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 249.20M | 353.70M | 320.30M | 418.30M | 676.80M | 398.71M |
| Total Debt | 816.20M | 596.00M | 597.40M | 605.40M | 645.20M | 197.31M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.08B | 3.05B | 2.81B | 2.77B | 2.77B | 1.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.71B | 3.32B | 3.24B | 3.32B | 3.25B | 2.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -60.90M | 146.40M | 132.10M | -74.90M | 102.30M | 312.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -51.90M | 157.40M | 139.00M | -72.10M | 103.90M | 315.85M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -60.40M | -46.20M | 23.10M | 52.50M | -30.30M | -4.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -95.90M | -80.80M | -260.10M | -238.90M | 204.50M | -254.00M |
Vistry Group Technical Analysis
Negative
312.40
Price Trends
275.95
Negative
267.53
Negative
393.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-6.10
Positive
39.03
Neutral
15.40
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:VTY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 312.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 264.98, above the 50-day MA of 275.95, and below the 200-day MA of 393.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -6.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.40 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:VTY.
Vistry Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | £2.82B | 11.60 | 5.99% | 9.36% | 9.47% | 193.33% | |
69 Neutral | £2.32B | 15.94 | 4.43% | 3.42% | 13.29% | 7.12% | |
68 Neutral | £4.36B | 18.48 | 3.13% | 5.43% | 8.55% | 27.43% | |
68 Neutral | £2.89B | 9.72 | 8.79% | 6.88% | -4.15% | -10.86% | |
66 Neutral | £4.01B | 13.03 | 8.45% | 4.85% | 17.38% | 18.92% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | £793.41M | -1.53 | -16.57% | 7.03% | -7.99% | -5071.71% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Vistry Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Vistry swings to loss as CEO unveils slimming strategy for mixed-tenure pivot
Negative
Sep 24, 2026
Vistry Group reported a sharp swing to loss in the first half of 2026, as revenue fell, completions declined and the company took substantial exceptional charges, including a major goodwill impairment and higher building safety provisions. Cash ge...
Other
Vistry Executive Chair Adds Shares Through Incentive Plan
Neutral
Sep 16, 2026
Vistry Group PLC disclosed a routine share transaction involving Executive Chair Daniel King under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The plan allows continuing membership funded by monthly salary deductions, and in this instance the plan t...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Vistry Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights After Treasury Share Transfers
Neutral
Aug 28, 2026
Vistry Group has reported that its issued share capital now comprises 318,405,003 ordinary 50p shares, of which 349,573 are held in treasury after using 268,532 treasury shares to satisfy employee share option exercises. As a result, the company&#...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Vistry wins £350m grant to accelerate affordable housing delivery
Positive
Aug 25, 2026
Vistry Group PLC has been reconfirmed as a Strategic Partner in the U.K. government’s £39bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme and has secured an initial £350m grant, the maximum award in this funding round. The grant will suppo...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Vistry Reports No Change in Shares Reserved Under Save As You Earn Scheme
Neutral
Aug 20, 2026
Vistry Group PLC, a major U.K. housebuilder, operates in the residential construction sector and uses employee share schemes to align staff interests with shareholder value. The group’s activities span homebuilding for private buyers and ins...
Executive/Board Changes
Vistry Executive Chair Adds Shares Through Incentive Plan
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
Vistry Group PLC disclosed that Executive Chair Daniel King has acquired additional ordinary shares through the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The purchase was executed on the London Stock Exchange at a price of £2.756 per share for a ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Vistry Updates Market on Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Jul 31, 2026
Vistry Group PLC has confirmed that as of 31 July 2026 its issued share capital comprises 318,405,003 ordinary 50 pence shares, of which 618,105 are held in treasury. As a result, the company reports that total voting rights stand at 317,786,898, ...
Other
Vistry Executive Chair Adds Shares Through Incentive Plan
Neutral
Jul 16, 2026
Vistry Group PLC reported that its Executive Chair, Daniel King, increased his holding in the company through participation in the Vistry Group Share Incentive Plan. Under the plan, which is funded by monthly salary deductions, the plan trustee pu...
Other
Vistry CEO Adam Daniels Buys Nearly £100,000 of Company Shares
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
Vistry Group PLC disclosed that its Chief Executive Officer, Adam Daniels, has purchased ordinary shares in the company, reinforcing transparency over senior management dealings in the stock. The transaction involved buying 38,372 ordinary shares ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Vistry Non-Executive Director Boosts Stake with Share Purchase
Positive
Jul 14, 2026
Vistry Group PLC has disclosed a share purchase by independent non-executive director Paul Whetsell, who acquired 15,000 ordinary shares at a price of £2.5275 each on 14 July 2026. The transaction, executed on the London Stock Exchange and va...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Vistry Group CFO Tim Lawlor to Step Down After HY Results
Neutral
Jul 8, 2026
Vistry Group PLC has announced that Chief Financial Officer Tim Lawlor will step down and leave the company to take a CFO role in a large privately owned business in another sector. Lawlor will remain in post until October, staying through the pub...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vistry embraces transition year as cash-focused overhaul hits first-half profit
Neutral
Jul 8, 2026
Vistry Group has designated 2026 as a transition year as new chief executive Adam Daniels refocuses the business on lower leverage and healthier profitability, even at the cost of short-term earnings. The company has taken aggressive cash-generati...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Vistry updates share capital and voting rights structure
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
Vistry Group PLC reported that as of 30 June 2026 its issued share capital comprised 318,405,003 ordinary shares of 50 pence each, of which 618,105 are held in treasury. This leaves 317,786,898 voting shares in circulation, a figure shareholders m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.