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Serica Energy PLC (GB:SQZ)
LSE:SQZ

Serica Energy (SQZ) AI Stock Analysis

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Serica Energy

(LSE:SQZ)

64Neutral
Serica Energy's overall stock score reflects a mix of strengths and challenges. The company benefits from a strong balance sheet and attractive valuation, with a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield. However, inconsistent financial performance and technical indicators, along with production delays, pose risks to future growth. Stability in long-term operations from the OFAC license is a positive factor, but short-term production setbacks require attention.
Positive Factors
Company Strategy
Potential acquisitions in the UK or outside could lead to a significant rerating of Serica's shares.
Financial Performance
The company offers a 30% free cash flow yield and a 15% dividend yield, indicating strong returns for investors.
Growth Prospects
There is an upside potential of 64.9% to the price target, indicating significant growth prospects.
Negative Factors
Investment Reduction
Windfall taxes have curtailed a significant amount of potential investment in 2025 that could have created value for investors.
Operational Challenges
Poor operational uptime on the Triton vessel has been the primary cause of four production downgrades for Serica over the last five months.
Production Issues
The key issue for 3Q/4Q has been an extended shutdown at the Triton FPSO due to gas export compressor problems, shutting down all four fields that feed into the FPSO.

Serica Energy (SQZ) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Serica Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSerica Energy plc, an upstream oil and gas company, engages in the identification, acquisition, exploration, and exploitation of oil and gas reserves. The company holds 100% interest in the Keith oil fields; 98% interest in the Bruce gas fields; and 50% interest in the Rhum gas fields located in the Northern North Sea, as well as 18% non-operating interest in the Erskine field located in Central North Sea. It also operates the Columbus development, and Skerryvore and Ruvaal prospects located in Central North Sea; and North and South Eigg exploration prospects located in the Northern North Sea. Serica Energy plc was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Aberdeen, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneySerica Energy makes money through the extraction and sale of oil and gas. The company's revenue model is primarily based on the production and sale of hydrocarbons from its operated and non-operated assets in the UKCS. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil and natural gas to various markets, which are subject to fluctuations in global commodity prices. Additionally, Serica Energy benefits from partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies, allowing it to share operational risks and costs while enhancing production capabilities. The company's financial performance is significantly influenced by its ability to optimize production efficiency and manage operational costs effectively.

Serica Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income Statement
Balance Sheet
Cash Flow
Breakdown
Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
632.64M998.52M514.14M125.64M250.53M
Gross Profit
306.57M730.40M386.82M-2.92M85.08M
EBIT
321.16M585.30M246.08M-18.70M77.65M
EBITDA
432.17M695.66M172.68M51.55M162.84M
Net Income Common Stockholders
102.98M218.52M79.29M7.78M64.02M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
245.19M509.36M80.08M77.23M79.32M
Total Assets
1.24B1.06B686.67M447.46M372.60M
Total Debt
213.03M0.00516.00K0.00
Net Debt
-32.16M-509.36M-80.08M-77.23M-79.32M
Total Liabilities
582.80M557.58M414.14M247.62M218.36M
Stockholders Equity
655.26M502.35M272.53M199.85M154.24M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
19.75M569.11M105.44M17.43M102.64M
Operating Cash Flow
98.01M688.45M157.60M44.07M106.76M
Investing Cash Flow
-108.77M-229.19M-134.35M-47.94M-47.50M
Financing Cash Flow
-154.37M-56.08M-9.25M-7.99M-12.25M

Serica Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price127.00
Price Trends
50DMA
128.12
Negative
100DMA
134.98
Negative
200DMA
130.70
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.70
Negative
RSI
49.28
Neutral
STOCH
51.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:SQZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 127 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 124.87, below the 50-day MA of 128.12, and below the 200-day MA of 130.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:SQZ.

Serica Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
GBENQ
73
Outperform
£241.12M3.4018.48%-21.23%
GBSQZ
64
Neutral
£499.14M6.8311.29%18.17%-9.79%-46.17%
GBTLW
61
Neutral
£193.13M4.21
-11.70%
GBHBR
61
Neutral
£2.71B21.62-2.87%13.18%29.33%
56
Neutral
$6.99B3.72-4.39%5.96%-0.24%-48.44%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:SQZ
Serica Energy
127.00
-24.82
-16.35%
GEGYF
Genel Energy
0.92
-0.16
-14.81%
GB:ENQ
Enquest
13.14
-1.85
-12.34%
GB:HBR
Harbour Energy
160.90
-94.23
-36.93%
GB:RKH
Rockhopper Exploration
47.50
34.12
255.01%
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
13.22
-21.74
-62.19%

Serica Energy Corporate Events

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Serica Energy Releases 2024 Annual and ESG Reports, Announces 2025 AGM
Neutral
Apr 23, 2025

Serica Energy has published its 2024 Annual Report and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Report following the release of its financial results for the year ended 31 December 2024. The company also announced the Notice of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, scheduled for 22 May 2025. These publications are part of Serica’s ongoing commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement, reflecting its strategic focus on sustainable operations and growth in the UK energy sector.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Extends Deadline for EnQuest Takeover Talks
Neutral
Apr 4, 2025

Serica Energy has announced an extension of the PUSU Deadline for its ongoing discussions with EnQuest regarding a potential reverse takeover. This extension allows EnQuest until May 2, 2025, to declare its intentions, impacting Serica’s strategic positioning and potentially affecting stakeholders depending on the outcome of these negotiations.

Other
Serica Energy Transfers Treasury Shares to Employee Trust
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

Serica Energy plc has transferred 1,500,000 Ordinary Shares from its treasury to the Company’s Employee Benefit Trust to satisfy LTIP and SIP Awards. Following this transaction, the company holds 541,985 Ordinary Shares in treasury, with a total of 393,568,408 shares in issue, impacting the total voting rights available to shareholders.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Serica Energy Reports 2024 Financial Results Amid Strategic Adjustments
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

Serica Energy announced its audited financial results for 2024, highlighting challenges and strategic adjustments. Despite positive drilling results at the Triton field, production and cash flow have been impacted by issues at the Triton FPSO. The company is addressing these by advancing maintenance work, which should enhance uptime and production reliability. Serica’s subsurface analysis has led to a decrease in 2P reserves but a significant increase in 2C resources, indicating strong potential for future resource conversion. The company is rebalancing its capital allocation to focus on high-value projects and maintain competitive shareholder returns. Financially, Serica remains profitable and cash-generative, despite a decrease in profit before tax due to lower volumes and prices. The company maintains a robust balance sheet, with significant tax loss shelters supporting ongoing investment and growth strategies.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Serica Energy Announces Total Voting Rights for March 2025
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025

Serica Energy PLC has announced its total voting rights as of March 31, 2025, in compliance with the Financial Conduct Authority’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. The company reports a total of 391,526,423 voting rights, with 2,041,985 ordinary shares held in treasury. This information is crucial for shareholders to determine their interest or changes in interest in the company.

Other
Serica Energy Announces Share Transfer by Non-Executive Director
Neutral
Mar 19, 2025

Serica Energy PLC announced that Jérôme Schmitt, an Independent Non-Executive Director, transferred 9,100 ordinary shares into a nominee account without any change in beneficial ownership. This transaction, conducted on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange, reflects internal share management practices and does not impact the company’s operational or market positioning.

Business Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Faces Delays in Triton FPSO Production Resumption
Negative
Mar 19, 2025

Serica Energy has announced a delay in the resumption of production from the Triton FPSO, now expected to restart in May instead of March, due to ongoing maintenance issues and the aftermath of Storm Éowyn. The company is working with Dana Petroleum to improve the operating performance of the FPSO, as the current situation is unsatisfactory for both Serica and its shareholders. This delay impacts Serica’s ability to convert successful drilling results into sustained production and cash flow, highlighting the need for a more predictable production performance.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Serica Energy Transfers Treasury Shares to Employee Trust
Neutral
Mar 12, 2025

Serica Energy plc has transferred 500,000 Ordinary Shares from its treasury to the Company’s Employee Benefit Trust to satisfy LTIP and SIP Awards. Following this transaction, Serica holds 2,041,985 Ordinary Shares in treasury with a total of 393,568,408 shares in issue, resulting in 391,526,423 total voting rights. This adjustment in voting rights is significant for shareholders and stakeholders who monitor their interests under the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules.

Other
Serica Energy Transfers Treasury Shares to Employee Trust
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

Serica Energy plc has transferred 500,000 Ordinary Shares from its Treasury to the Company’s Employee Benefit Trust to satisfy LTIP Awards. As of 28 February 2025, the company reports a total of 391,026,423 voting rights, which shareholders can use to determine their notification obligations under the Financial Conduct Authority’s rules.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Serica Energy Secures Two-Year OFAC License Renewal for Rhum Field
Positive
Feb 27, 2025

Serica Energy has announced the renewal of its OFAC License and secondary sanctions assurance for the Rhum field, extending the license for two years until February 2027. This renewal allows U.S. and non-U.S. entities to continue providing goods, services, and support to the Rhum field, ensuring continued operations and stability for Serica’s production activities in the region.

Business Operations and Strategy
Serica Energy Faces Production Setback at Triton FPSO Due to Storm Damage
Negative
Feb 18, 2025

Serica Energy announced a temporary suspension of production from the Triton FPSO due to damage caused by Storm Éowyn. The storm triggered a shutdown of the fire and gas detection system, and repairs are underway to address minor damage to a cargo tank and an issue with the inert gas line. Production is expected to resume in mid-to-late March. The company is reviewing its 2025 production guidance and maintenance schedules as a result. A third-party engineering study suggests that, with continued maintenance, the Triton FPSO could operate into the next decade, which could have long-term benefits for Serica’s production capabilities.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Serica Energy Secures Key OFAC License Extension Amid U.S. Administration Transition
Positive
Feb 3, 2025

Serica Energy announced a two-month extension of the OFAC License and secondary sanctions assurance for the Rhum field, allowing continuation of certain operations by U.S. and non-U.S. entities. This extension is crucial for completing the application process for a new long-term license following the transition in U.S. Administrations, thereby ensuring uninterrupted operations and supporting Serica’s strategic growth and stability in the North Sea oil and gas sector.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.