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Gulf Keystone Petroleum
(LSE:GKP)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
200.00 p
▲(1.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/25/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial resilience (very low leverage) and a constructive technical setup (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). These positives are moderated by earnings/cash-flow volatility and earnings-call risks around shut-ins, receivable recovery uncertainty, and geopolitical disruption, while valuation is mixed due to a high P/E partially offset by a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Very Low Leverage
Minimal debt gives Gulf Keystone financial resilience through oil-price, production and payment volatility. It also preserves flexibility to fund field development, maintain dividends and absorb disruptions without relying heavily on external financing.
Negative Factors
Geopolitical Production Risk
Operations remain exposed to regional security events that can interrupt production and exports for extended periods. Repeated shut-ins would reduce revenue, weaken cash conversion and make development planning less predictable.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very Low Leverage
Minimal debt gives Gulf Keystone financial resilience through oil-price, production and payment volatility. It also preserves flexibility to fund field development, maintain dividends and absorb disruptions without relying heavily on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£432.48M
Dividend Yield3.96%
Average Volume (3M)526.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.4
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth5.77%
EPS Growth100.39%
CountryUK
Employees400
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding217,543,370
10 Day Avg. Volume597,650
30 Day Avg. Volume526,834
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.26
Price to Book (P/B)1.08
Price to Sales (P/S)3.07
P/FCF Ratio17.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£276.00Price Target Upside40.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)£168.33M
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company holds an 80% interest in the Shaikan Field covering an area of approximately 280 square kilometers ...
How the Company Makes Money
GKP makes money primarily by producing crude oil from its interests in the Shaikan field and selling those barrels to buyers/through marketing arrangements, generating revenue based on the number of barrels sold and the realized oil price (often l...
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a resilient operational and financial performance under significant regional disruption: management successfully limited cash outflow, expanded adjusted EBITDA by 26%, paid and proposed dividends, restarted production and is rapidly ramping volumes, and advanced strategic projects (PF-2) that can materially boost capacity. However, the business was materially impacted by precautionary shut-ins that cut H1 production by ~67%, left an ~$80M top-up receivable with uncertain recovery timing, and exposed the company to ongoing geopolitical risk. Cost improvements were partially driven by the temporary shut-ins rather than purely structural savings, and major FDP funding/timing and long-term export pricing remain unresolved. On balance, the positive operational recovery, improved realized pricing, strong safety record, robust balance sheet and shareholder returns slightly outweigh the significant but potentially temporary disruptions and outstanding commercial uncertainties.Positive Updates
Resilient Financial Performance and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA increased 26% year-on-year to $52 million in H1 2026 (from $41 million in H1 2025), driven by considerably higher realized prices on entitlement invoices and lower operating costs, which more than offset the impact of lower production.
Negative Updates
Material Production Decline Due to Precautionary Shut-ins
Gross average production in H1 2026 was 14,600 bbl/d versus 44,100 bbl/d in H1 2025, a decline of approximately 66.9%, driven by two precautionary shut-ins totaling almost five months linked to regional security concerns.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Resilient Financial Performance and Margin Expansion
Adjusted EBITDA increased 26% year-on-year to $52 million in H1 2026 (from $41 million in H1 2025), driven by considerably higher realized prices on entitlement invoices and lower operating costs, which more than offset the impact of lower production.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s guidance focused on completing a fast ramp‑up and unlocking full PSC entitlement/export sales at international prices to bolster H2 cash flow and enable a return to production growth in 2027; they expect gross volumes to recover to >40,000 bbl/d very quickly and to ~44–45,000 bbl/d within ~3 weeks of a restart, with current gross volumes approaching 40,000 bbl/d, and note the PF‑2 water‑handling start‑up (Q1 2027) should add ~4,000–8,000 bbl/d and increase capacity toward ~77,000 bbl/d, while the draft FDP targets more than doubling Jurassic production and testing Triassic up to 10,000 bbl/d; financial actions are to remain disciplined and discretionary (H1 net CapEx ~$18m, H1 adjusted EBITDA $52m (+26%), OpEx $20m (−25%), G&A $4.3m (−6%), OpEx/~$4.4/bbl pre‑shut‑in, free cash outflow ~$2m), they will seek recovery of a top‑up receivable of ~ $80m net (cash received ≈ $30/bbl vs entitlement prices) via additional liftings from September (payment within ~30 days), net entitlement was ~36% in H1, H1 gross production averaged 14,600 bbl/d (vs 44,100 bbl/d in H1‑2025 after ~5 months of precautionary shut‑ins), the Shaikan discount to Brent was ~$9/bbl in H1, the interim export agreements have been extended to end‑January 2027, and the board announced a $10m interim dividend for September having paid $12.5m in April.Gulf Keystone Petroleum Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 164.87M | 168.27M | 151.21M | 123.51M | 460.11M | 301.39M |
| Gross Profit | 50.77M | 20.30M | 20.53M | 8.18M | 299.50M | 189.67M |
| EBITDA | 85.99M | 96.35M | 88.27M | 32.43M | 355.17M | 230.21M |
| Net Income | 35.36M | 15.45M | 7.16M | -11.50M | 266.09M | 164.60M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 635.87M | 646.34M | 667.68M | 697.15M | 744.36M | 764.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 61.15M | 78.26M | 102.35M | 81.71M | 119.46M | 169.87M |
| Total Debt | 1.19M | 1.35M | 1.51M | 398.00K | 710.00K | 100.33M |
| Total Liabilities | 157.22M | 167.14M | 155.35M | 149.91M | 171.43M | 242.55M |
| Stockholders Equity | 478.65M | 479.20M | 512.33M | 547.24M | 572.92M | 521.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.30M | 30.41M | 65.94M | -14.06M | 266.94M | 122.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 42.95M | 64.42M | 93.54M | 51.32M | 374.30M | 178.53M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -40.77M | -34.27M | -27.60M | -63.94M | -107.36M | -55.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -39.74M | -55.44M | -45.47M | -25.32M | -317.25M | -100.69M |
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Technical Analysis
Positive
196.20
Price Trends
176.06
Positive
177.96
Positive
179.82
Positive
Market Momentum
4.85
Negative
61.49
Neutral
40.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GKP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 196.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 185.31, above the 50-day MA of 176.06, and above the 200-day MA of 179.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.85 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GKP.
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | £270.09M | 19.51 | 5.30% | 66.67% | -11.74% | ― | |
68 Neutral | £432.48M | 16.35 | 7.38% | 3.96% | 5.77% | 100.39% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | £506.21M | 5.12 | 27.37% | 2.92% | 3.33% | ― | |
56 Neutral | £161.90M | -8.01 | -7.79% | 10.50% | -38.72% | 52.39% | |
56 Neutral | £734.63M | -13.46 | -17.25% | ― | ― | ― | |
54 Neutral | £352.24M | 77.71 | -2.23% | 2.73% | -47.84% | -277.39% |
* Energy Sector Average
GB:GKP
Gulf Keystone Petroleum
192.80
30.17
18.55%
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GB:RKH
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GB:TLW
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118.63%
Gulf Keystone Petroleum Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Gulf Keystone Declares $10m Interim Dividend With Multi‑Currency Payouts
Positive
Aug 25, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has declared a $10 million interim dividend tied to its 2026 half‑year results, equivalent to $0.046 per common share, with the ex‑dividend date set for 10 September and payment due on 28 September. The move und...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Gulf Keystone withstands Kurdistan disruption as cash flow and dividends hold up
Positive
Aug 25, 2026
Gulf Keystone reported resilient half-year results for 2026 despite significant regional security disruptions that forced precautionary production shut-ins and cut average output to 14,600 barrels per day. Cost-cutting measures limited free cash o...
Business Operations and Strategy
Gulf Keystone halts Shaikan output amid rising security risks in Kurdistan
Negative
Jul 20, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has temporarily shut in production at its Shaikan Field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq as a safety precaution in response to the deteriorating regional security situation. The move aligns with actions taken by other intern...
Business Operations and Strategy
Gulf Keystone ramps up Shaikan output and pursues long‑term export deals
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum has restarted production and export operations at the Shaikan field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, with gross volumes ramping up to more than 43,000 barrels of oil per day since 24 June 2026. The company is pursuing furth...
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
Gulf Keystone Wins Full Shareholder Backing at 2026 AGM
Positive
Jun 19, 2026
Gulf Keystone Petroleum reported that shareholders approved all resolutions at its 2026 Annual General Meeting, which was held via webcast. The votes confirmed the appointment of BDO LLP as auditor and authorised the board to set the auditor’...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.