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Tullow Oil
(LSE:TLW)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
10.00 p
▼(-51.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/14/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial resilience (negative equity and high leverage alongside declining revenue) and bearish technicals (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). These are only partially offset by constructive earnings-call developments, including higher production and upgraded free cash flow guidance, while valuation is difficult to support given the negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Production Growth and Reliability
Higher production and strong FPSO availability demonstrate improved execution across Tullow’s core Ghana assets. Sustained output supports revenue and operating cash generation, while reliability initiatives and new wells can reinforce production capacity over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Negative Equity
Persistent negative equity and substantial debt leave Tullow with limited balance-sheet resilience if production, realized prices, or cash generation weaken. Leverage also constrains capital allocation and keeps refinancing execution important despite recent repayments and maturity extensions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production Growth and Reliability
Higher production and strong FPSO availability demonstrate improved execution across Tullow’s core Ghana assets. Sustained output supports revenue and operating cash generation, while reliability initiatives and new wells can reinforce production capacity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Tullow Oil (TLW) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£158.17M
Dividend Yield2.73%
Average Volume (3M)29.15M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.51
Revenue Growth-21.40%
EPS Growth30.63%
CountryUK
Employees346
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.04
Shares Outstanding1,515,023,100
10 Day Avg. Volume16,914,218
30 Day Avg. Volume29,145,618
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)-0.47
Price to Sales (P/S)0.14
P/FCF Ratio0.86
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£19.50Price Target Upside-5.57% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)£1.13B
Tullow Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tullow Oil plc, an energy company, develops, produces, and sells oil and gas resources in Ghana, Gabon, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, and Argentina. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom....
How the Company Makes Money
Tullow Oil primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil (and, where applicable, associated natural gas) from its upstream assets. Revenue is generated when hydrocarbons produced from the fields in which it holds working interests are s...
Tullow Oil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, driven by production of 43,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day, more than 7% year-over-year growth, over 99% combined FPSO uptime, substantial reserve replacement, higher oil price realizations, upgraded free cash flow guidance, cost reductions, and a broader Ghana growth opportunity set. The main challenges were low first-half free cash flow caused by explicitly identified one-off and timing items, unresolved Ghana tax disputes with a higher provision, significant existing net debt, some first-half water injection downtime, and the acknowledgment that 99% uptime is unlikely to continue. Overall, the highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.Positive Updates
Production Above Expectations
First-half 2026 production was 43,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day, more than 7% higher than the first half of 2025 and at the top end of expectations. Tullow is confident of being at the high end of its full-year guidance range of 34,000 to 42,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Negative Updates
Low First-Half Free Cash Flow
First-half free cash flow was $4 million. Management said this was due to $70 million of one-off refinancing costs, capital expenditure being weighted toward the first half, and six cargoes being lifted in the first half compared with eight forecast in the second half.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Above Expectations
First-half 2026 production was 43,700 barrels of oil equivalent per day, more than 7% higher than the first half of 2025 and at the top end of expectations. Tullow is confident of being at the high end of its full-year guidance range of 34,000 to 42,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For full year 2026, Tullow expects production at the high end of its guidance range of 34,000 to 42,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, free cash flow guidance of $170 million-$250 million between an oil price of $70 and $100 a barrel, capital expenditure of $200 million, decommissioning expenditure of $15 million, year-end net debt of $1.2 billion inclusive of accrued PIK interest on the bonds and Glencore notes, and a further four cargoes by the end of the year; it continues to target a net cash G&A run rate of $20 million a year, at least 60% of production fully exposed to higher oil prices, 60% downside protection, and a target injection rate of 230,000 barrels of water per day against capacity of 300,000 barrels of water per day, while every $10 increase above its guided range for the second half of the year would result in more than $20 million incremental cash flow.Tullow Oil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.18B | 851.20M | 1.53B | 1.63B | 1.78B | 1.29B |
| Gross Profit | 467.18M | 247.30M | 754.00M | 790.80M | 1.09B | 646.50M |
| EBITDA | 915.69M | 628.60M | 1.11B | 860.20M | 1.20B | 930.80M |
| Net Income | -61.77M | 6.50M | 54.60M | -109.60M | 49.10M | -80.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.88B | 3.28B | 4.05B | 4.42B | 5.15B | 5.52B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 188.47M | 332.32M | 554.54M | 494.77M | 650.14M | 467.19M |
| Total Debt | 1.96B | 2.26B | 2.71B | 2.97B | 3.53B | 3.72B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.24B | 3.53B | 4.32B | 4.78B | 5.62B | 5.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | -360.06M | -252.99M | -272.42M | -356.36M | -469.50M | -464.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 143.25M | 138.70M | 534.00M | 583.70M | 771.40M | 550.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 354.04M | 334.30M | 758.50M | 876.20M | 1.08B | 786.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 162.40M | 149.50M | -213.10M | -268.50M | -356.20M | -101.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -511.65M | -700.20M | -492.20M | -742.50M | -552.80M | -1.03B |
Tullow Oil Technical Analysis
Negative
20.65
Price Trends
16.60
Negative
15.20
Negative
13.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.55
Negative
35.43
Neutral
18.49
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TLW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.91, above the 50-day MA of 16.60, and above the 200-day MA of 13.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.49 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:TLW.
Tullow Oil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | £301.90M | 7.94 | 12.85% | 66.67% | 33.61% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | £123.76M | -38.99 | -1.49% | 4.44% | -7.76% | -176.77% | |
60 Neutral | £191.72M | -20.60 | -9.14% | ― | -6.06% | -127.98% | |
56 Neutral | £162.17M | -8.11 | -7.79% | 10.50% | -38.72% | 52.39% | |
53 Neutral | £223.42M | -2.03 | 177.32% | 239.14% | -8.99% | -826.33% | |
46 Neutral | £158.17M | -3.95 | 20.15% | 2.73% | -21.40% | 30.63% |
* Energy Sector Average
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
10.44
0.67
6.86%
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Tullow Oil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyLegal Proceedings
Tullow Oil Faces Setback in Ghana Tax Arbitration Over $196.5 Million Assessment
Negative
Sep 30, 2026
Tullow Oil has received an arbitration ruling from the International Chamber of Commerce on a $196.5 million corporate income tax assessment imposed by Ghana on proceeds from its business interruption insurance between 2016 and 2019. The tribunal ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tullow Oil lifts output, boosts cash flow outlook on strong Ghana performance
Positive
Sep 28, 2026
Tullow Oil reported a strong first half of 2026, with group working interest production rising to 43.7 kboepd, robust performance from its Ghanaian Jubilee and TEN fields, and FPSO uptime above 99%. Revenue climbed to $496 million on realised pre&...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tullow Oil lifts output, reserves and cash flow as Ghana fields outperform
Positive
Sep 28, 2026
Tullow Oil reported a strong first half of 2026, with group working interest production rising to 43.7 kboepd and Ghana operations delivering high uptime and better-than-expected output from the Jubilee and TEN fields. Revenue increased to $496 mi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tullow Oil lifts 2026 cash flow guidance on strong Ghana output and higher prices
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
Tullow Oil reported stronger-than-expected operational performance in the first half of 2026, with group production averaging about 43.7 kboepd and output from its Jubilee and TEN fields exceeding forecasts, supported by new wells and 4D seismic-d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.