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Tullow Oil PLC (GB:TLW)
LSE:TLW
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Tullow Oil (TLW) AI Stock Analysis

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GB:TLW

Tullow Oil

(LSE:TLW)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
8.00p
▼(-14.26% Downside)
The overall stock score is primarily impacted by significant financial risks due to high leverage and negative equity, coupled with bearish technical indicators. The negative P/E ratio further detracts from the stock's attractiveness, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow Generation
Strong operating cash flow reflects Tullow Oil's ability to generate cash from its core operations, providing financial stability and flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt obligations.
Gross Profit Margin
A strong gross profit margin indicates efficient production and cost management, which can support profitability and competitive positioning in the oil and gas industry.
Operational Expertise
Tullow Oil's expertise in complex oil fields enhances its ability to efficiently explore and produce oil and gas, providing a competitive advantage in challenging environments and supporting long-term operational success.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage and negative equity indicate financial distress, limiting Tullow Oil's ability to invest in growth and increasing vulnerability to market fluctuations, which could impact long-term sustainability.
Revenue Volatility
Inconsistent revenue growth reflects volatility in Tullow Oil's business operations and market conditions, posing challenges to predictability and planning, potentially affecting long-term strategic initiatives.
Profitability Challenges
Low net profit margin due to high expenses and interest burdens highlights operational challenges, impacting Tullow Oil's ability to generate sustainable profits and invest in future growth.

Tullow Oil (TLW) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Tullow Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTullow Oil plc engages in the oil and gas exploration, development, and production activities primarily in Africa and South America. As of December 31, 2021, its portfolio comprised 30 licenses in 8 countries with 30 producing wells. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyTullow Oil generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. The company earns money by selling crude oil and gas that it extracts from its fields. Key revenue streams include production from its operated assets, joint ventures, and partnerships with other oil companies. Tullow has significant production in countries like Ghana, where it operates the Jubilee and TEN fields. Additionally, the company engages in the trading of oil, which can provide further income. Partnerships with national oil companies and other industry players often enhance Tullow's operational capabilities and financial performance, while hedging strategies may also be employed to manage price fluctuations in the oil market.

Tullow Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tullow Oil shows strong cash flow generation but faces significant balance sheet risks due to high leverage and negative equity. The income statement indicates operational profitability challenges despite a healthy gross margin.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Tullow Oil's income statement shows fluctuating revenue and profitability. The gross profit margin for 2024 is approximately 49.1%, which is strong. However, the net profit margin is low at 3.6% due to significant expenses and interest burdens, reflecting operational challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, indicating volatility in business operations and market conditions.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a negative equity position, indicating financial distress. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity, and the return on equity cannot be calculated. The company's financial structure is concerning, with liabilities exceeding assets, posing significant risks.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows strong operating cash flow, indicating robust cash-generating capacity. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting effective cash management despite profitability issues. However, the declining free cash flow growth rate suggests potential future challenges in maintaining cash flow levels.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue981.40M1.53B1.63B1.78B1.29B1.40B
Gross Profit381.35M754.00M790.80M1.09B646.50M402.50M
EBITDA656.85M1.11B860.20M1.20B930.80M-492.80M
Net Income-171.75M54.60M-109.60M49.10M-80.70M-1.22B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.61B4.05B4.46B5.04B5.54B6.56B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments187.50M548.60M499.00M636.30M469.10M805.40M
Total Debt2.47B2.71B2.99B3.46B3.73B4.39B
Total Liabilities3.93B4.32B4.82B5.50B6.01B6.77B
Stockholders Equity-329.70M-272.70M-359.40M-459.50M-466.10M-210.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow439.55M534.00M583.70M771.40M550.40M267.70M
Operating Cash Flow569.60M758.50M876.20M1.08B786.90M698.60M
Investing Cash Flow-107.15M-213.10M-268.50M-356.20M-101.70M84.30M
Financing Cash Flow-357.05M-492.20M-742.50M-552.80M-1.03B-271.70M

Tullow Oil Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price9.33
Price Trends
50DMA
10.34
Negative
100DMA
12.46
Negative
200DMA
14.03
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.26
Negative
RSI
39.61
Neutral
STOCH
52.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TLW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.93, below the 50-day MA of 10.34, and below the 200-day MA of 14.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:TLW.

Tullow Oil Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
60
Neutral
£222.31M-2.59-26.37%3.75%-18.05%-634.88%
53
Neutral
£153.30M-4.21-92.03%-16.87%21.18%
52
Neutral
£141.11M-8.57-6.29%-32.66%72.67%
50
Neutral
$176.21M-4.19-11.54%-0.20%-25.68%
45
Neutral
£137.62M-0.87-32.47%-1490.91%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GB:TLW
Tullow Oil
9.33
-13.67
-59.43%
GB:GENL
Genel Energy
64.00
-15.30
-19.29%
GB:CNE
Capricorn Energy PLC
202.00
-16.00
-7.34%
GB:ENQ
Enquest
11.92
0.10
0.85%
GB:SAVE
Savannah Petroleum
6.85
-19.40
-73.90%
GB:KIST
Kistos PLC
185.00
82.00
79.61%

Tullow Oil Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tullow Oil Aligns Executive Incentives with Shareholder Returns
Neutral
Oct 7, 2025

Tullow Oil PLC has announced the granting of nil-cost option awards over its ordinary shares to its CEO, Ian Perks, and CFO, Richard Miller, under its 2023 Executive Share Plan. These awards, contingent on achieving specified shareholder return targets over a three-year period, reflect the company’s strategy to align executive incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Oct 1, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced that as of 30 September 2025, its issued share capital consists of 1,465,023,041 ordinary shares with voting rights, and no shares are held in treasury. This update is in accordance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, allowing shareholders to calculate their interests in the company, which could impact their notification requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Tullow Oil CFO Receives Share Award Vesting
Neutral
Sep 30, 2025

Tullow Oil announced the vesting of 71,056 ordinary shares awarded to Chief Financial Officer Richard Miller under the company’s 2014 Employee Share Award Plan. This transaction, conducted outside a trading venue, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to rewarding its key managerial personnel, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions of the company’s executive compensation strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tullow Oil Reports Mid-Year Reserves Decline, Eyes Future Growth in Ghana
Neutral
Sep 26, 2025

Tullow Oil has published its mid-year 2025 reserves report, indicating a decrease in total reserves from 128.5 mmboe at the end of 2024 to 113.8 mmboe as of June 2025, primarily due to production and performance revisions. The company anticipates increasing its 2P reserves in Ghana through new seismic data and ongoing collaboration with the Ghanaian government, which includes extending production licenses and exploring further drilling opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Tullow Oil Exits Kenya with $120 Million Asset Sale to Gulf Energy
Positive
Sep 25, 2025

Tullow Oil has completed the sale of its Kenya assets to Auron Energy E&P Limited, an affiliate of Gulf Energy Ltd, for a minimum of $120 million. This transaction marks Tullow’s exit from Kenya after 14 years and is part of its strategic priorities for 2025, aimed at strengthening its balance sheet and positioning the company for refinancing its capital structure. The sale is expected to impact Kenya’s domestic energy sector positively, with Gulf Energy taking over the project to advance energy security and development in the Turkana region.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tullow Oil Appoints Ian Perks as New CEO
Positive
Sep 5, 2025

Tullow Oil has appointed Ian Perks as its new CEO, effective September 15, 2025. With over 30 years of experience in the upstream oil and gas industry, Perks has a proven track record in managing large projects and businesses, particularly in Africa. His appointment is expected to strengthen Tullow’s operations and strategic growth across the continent, leveraging existing assets and enhancing stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Sep 1, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced that as of 29 August 2025, its issued share capital comprises 1,464,664,066 ordinary shares with voting rights, with no shares held in treasury. This disclosure aligns with the FCA’s rules and provides shareholders with the necessary information to assess their holdings and obligations regarding voting rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Hold with a £12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Other
Tullow Oil Director Acquires Significant Shareholding
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Tullow Oil plc announced a significant transaction involving Roald Goethe, a Non-Executive Director, who purchased 2,000,000 ordinary shares at a price of £0.119 each, totaling £238,000. This transaction, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, reflects a notable investment in the company, potentially signaling confidence in Tullow Oil’s future prospects and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Tullow Oil Announces Total Voting Rights Update
Neutral
Aug 7, 2025

Tullow Oil plc has announced that as of July 31, 2025, its issued share capital consists of 1,462,463,453 ordinary shares, each with a nominal value of 10p, all carrying voting rights. This figure is crucial for shareholders to determine their notification requirements regarding their interests in the company, in accordance with the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Tullow Oil Reports Strategic Progress Amid 2025 Half-Year Results
Neutral
Aug 6, 2025

Tullow Oil has reported its 2025 half-year results, highlighting key strategic achievements and operational updates. The company has successfully brought the first 2025 Jubilee well onstream with better than expected net pay and realized $300 million from the sale of its Gabon assets. Tullow has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding in Ghana to extend production licenses to 2040, which is expected to increase reserves. Despite a decrease in production and revenue compared to the previous year, Tullow remains focused on refinancing its capital structure and optimizing its cost base to unlock intrinsic value.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Tullow Oil Announces Board Change as Sheila Khama Steps Down
Neutral
Jul 30, 2025

Tullow Oil announced that Sheila Khama, an Independent Non-Executive Director, will step down from the Board effective 1 August 2025 to focus on other professional commitments. The departure of Khama, who has been with the company for six years, may impact the board’s dynamics and strategic direction as Tullow continues its focus on sustainable energy development and socio-economic contributions in Africa.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Tullow Oil Sells Gabon Assets to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
Jul 29, 2025

Tullow Oil has completed the sale of its Gabon assets to the Gabon Oil Company for $307 million, marking its exit from Gabon after 21 years. The proceeds will be used to reduce Tullow’s net debt, enhancing its financial stability. This transaction is part of Tullow’s broader strategy to streamline operations and focus on its core assets, with further plans to complete a sale in Kenya and continue its drilling campaign in Ghana. The sale aligns with Tullow’s efforts to deleverage and strengthen its balance sheet, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:TLW) stock is a Sell with a £18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tullow Oil stock, see the GB:TLW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025