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Rio Tinto
(LSE:RIO)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
8,405.00 p
â–²(8.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/29/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (profitability and operating cash flow) and a strong, upbeat earnings call highlighting materially improved cash generation, productivity gains, and visible project progress. These positives are tempered by weaker free-cash-flow conversion and higher debt versus last year, plus a mixed technical setup with the stock still below key intermediate moving averages.
Positive Factors
Improving earnings and cash generation
The sharp improvement in EBITDA and free cash flow indicates stronger operating performance and cash generation across the business. Sustained financial momentum can support capital investment, dividends, debt management, and the funding of strategic growth projects over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Higher debt and weak free-cash-flow conversion
The sharp increase in debt reduces balance-sheet headroom even though leverage remains moderate relative to equity. Combined with weak free-cash-flow conversion, higher borrowings could constrain financial flexibility and make it harder to fund large capital commitments, dividends, and growth projects simultaneously.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving earnings and cash generation
The sharp improvement in EBITDA and free cash flow indicates stronger operating performance and cash generation across the business. Sustained financial momentum can support capital investment, dividends, debt management, and the funding of strategic growth projects over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Rio Tinto (RIO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£130.72B
Dividend Yield4.55%
Average Volume (3M)3.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.9
Beta (1Y)1.26
Revenue Growth10.86%
EPS Growth13.41%
CountryUK
Employees56,890
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryIndustrial Materials
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.43
Shares Outstanding1,255,153,600
10 Day Avg. Volume1,898,377
30 Day Avg. Volume3,037,987
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.95
Price to Book (P/B)2.10
Price to Sales (P/S)2.23
P/FCF Ratio26.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£7,597.27Price Target Upside-1.72% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)8.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)£64.15B
Rio Tinto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rio Tinto Group is a global enterprise dedicated to the exploration, extraction, and processing of a wide array of mineral resources. Its extensive product portfolio features metals such as aluminum, copper, and iron ore; precious commodities like...
How the Company Makes Money
Rio Tinto primarily makes money by producing and selling mined and processed commodities to industrial customers (e.g., steel producers, smelters, and manufacturers) under a mix of spot-market sales and longer-term supply contracts. Its largest re...
Rio Tinto Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong, performance-driven half with sizable earnings, cash flow and productivity gains, clear progress on major growth projects (Simandou, OT, lithium expansions) and an active capital-allocation plan. Offsetting issues include safety incidents, a furnace breach delaying sales, localized operational challenges (IOC, Kennecott), external inflation/FX headwinds and discrete legal/tax uncertainty in Mongolia. On balance the operational and financial positives and the sizable productivity momentum substantially outweigh the discussed negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Underlying EBITDA rose 28% to $14.8 billion; free cash flow increased 75%; interim dividend up 43% to $3.4 billion; net debt reduced during the period while funding ~$5 billion of CapEx and paying the 2025 final dividend of $4.2 billion.
Negative Updates
Operational Incidents and Safety Tragedies
The company reported two colleague fatalities in the half and a separate fatality earlier in the year at Kennecott; Simon emphasized safety as the top priority and remediation work is ongoing in affected operations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Performance
Underlying EBITDA rose 28% to $14.8 billion; free cash flow increased 75%; interim dividend up 43% to $3.4 billion; net debt reduced during the period while funding ~$5 billion of CapEx and paying the 2025 final dividend of $4.2 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The guidance emphasized strong momentum and disciplined capital allocation: copper‑equivalent production was up 3% in H1 with a 3% CAGR production target to 2030, underlying EBITDA rose 28% to $14.8bn (prices added $3.6bn — $2.0bn copper, $1.3bn aluminium — while external headwinds cost $1.5bn and controllables added $1.2bn), free cash flow jumped 75%, and the interim dividend was $3.4bn (50% payout, a 43% uplift); the group has banked $870m of productivity benefits to end‑June and is targeting a $1.8bn run‑rate by year‑end (up from an initial $650m commitment), is pursuing up to $5bn of cash releases in 2026 with a >$10bn pipeline, and maintains CapEx guidance of up to $11bn in 2026–27 (stepping to ~$10bn from 2028 in real ’25 terms) with sustaining capital ~ $4bn p.a. (and replacement/decarbonisation spend cited around $7–8bn), while targeting 1Mt copper by 2030, 200kt lithium capacity by 2028, OT ramp to ~500kt, Kennecott +40–50% growth, Simandou >¾ complete, nearly 60% of H1 EBITDA from copper/aluminium/lithium, Tier‑1 assets drove ~85% of product EBITDA last year, and the portfolio delivers an average ~26% IRR.Rio Tinto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 61.69B | 58.85B | 53.66B | 54.04B | 55.55B | 63.49B |
| Gross Profit | 16.85B | 33.10B | 30.28B | 32.40B | 34.27B | 44.93B |
| EBITDA | 24.13B | 21.51B | 23.16B | 21.08B | 25.54B | 36.13B |
| Net Income | 12.07B | 9.97B | 11.55B | 10.06B | 12.39B | 21.11B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 134.19B | 128.15B | 102.79B | 103.55B | 96.74B | 102.90B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.56B | 9.45B | 7.20B | 9.78B | 8.94B | 15.35B |
| Total Debt | 22.97B | 23.52B | 13.86B | 14.35B | 12.27B | 13.53B |
| Total Liabilities | 62.12B | 61.10B | 44.82B | 47.21B | 44.47B | 46.31B |
| Stockholders Equity | 65.80B | 62.23B | 55.25B | 54.59B | 50.17B | 51.43B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.71B | 4.91B | 5.98B | 8.07B | 9.38B | 17.96B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 19.09B | 17.51B | 15.60B | 15.16B | 16.13B | 25.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.29B | -18.08B | -9.59B | -6.96B | -6.71B | -7.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.89B | 864.77M | -7.09B | -5.28B | -15.47B | -15.86B |
Rio Tinto Technical Analysis
Positive
7730.00
Price Trends
7076.00
Positive
7277.67
Positive
6739.23
Positive
Market Momentum
158.44
Positive
63.58
Neutral
52.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:RIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7730 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7466.80, above the 50-day MA of 7076.00, and above the 200-day MA of 6739.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 158.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:RIO.
Rio Tinto Risk Analysis
Rio Tinto disclosed 14 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rio Tinto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Being responsible operators throughout the entire life ofour assets – from discovery to closure Q4, 2024
2.
Preventing loss of operational control that may lead to potential fatalities, permanent disablements, or material production disruption Q4, 2024
3.
Remaining competitive through economic cycles or shocks by maintaining strong financial and operating performance, underpinned by a healthy inventory of high-quality reserves Q4, 2024
Rio Tinto Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | £130.72B | 13.90 | 18.86% | 4.55% | 10.86% | 13.41% | |
66 Neutral | £489.54M | 29.55 | 8.42% | ― | -1.71% | 94.27% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | £70.39B | 17.87 | 13.34% | 2.21% | 26.71% | ― | |
54 Neutral | £44.96B | -23.66 | -15.45% | 0.69% | -13.95% | 40.97% | |
54 Neutral | £167.14M | -0.85 | -33.21% | 8.88% | -28.42% | -411.33% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Rio Tinto Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates Market on Voting Rights and Dual-Listed Share Structure
Neutral
Sep 1, 2026
Rio Tinto plc has updated the market on its capital structure, stating that as of 31 August 2026 it had 1,256,050,913 issued ordinary shares of 10p each, of which 897,389 are held in treasury and therefore carry no dividend or voting rights. This ...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Issues Shares for Employee Plan, Updates Voting Capital
Neutral
Sep 1, 2026
Rio Tinto has issued and allotted 209 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each between 1 August and 31 August 2026 to satisfy awards granted under its Global Employee Share Plan, reinforcing the use of equity-based incentives for staff participation. ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Rio Tinto backs long-term renewable power deal for Tomago Aluminium
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
Rio Tinto has welcomed a new agreement between Tomago Aluminium, the Australian Government and the New South Wales Government that secures long-term, internationally competitive power for Australia’s largest aluminium smelter until 2038. The...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates Market on Voting Rights and Dual-Listed Share Structure
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed that, as of 31 July 2026, its issued share capital consists of 1,256,050,704 ordinary shares, with 897,389 of those held in treasury and excluded from dividend payments and voting. This leaves a total of 1,255,153,315 votin...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rio Tinto Issues New Shares to Satisfy Employee Share Plan Awards
Neutral
Aug 3, 2026
Rio Tinto has issued and allotted 12,006 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each between 1 July and 31 July 2026 to satisfy awards granted under its Global Employee Share Plan, reinforcing its practice of using equity-based incentives for staff. The ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto reports share purchase by key executive under dual-listing rules
Neutral
Jul 30, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a share transaction by key management personnel under its dual-listed company reporting obligations to the London and Australian exchanges. Ben Wyatt, identified as a person discharging managerial responsibility and key man...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto lifts earnings and dividend on productivity gains and growth projects
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
Rio Tinto reported a sharp improvement in first-half 2026 performance, with copper equivalent production up 3% and underlying EBITDA rising 28% to $14.8 billion, supported by higher output across key commodities and ramp-up of growth projects such...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto publishes 2026 half-year results presentation and global webcast
Neutral
Jul 29, 2026
Rio Tinto has released its 2026 half-year results presentation, with slides made available on the company’s investor website for shareholders and analysts. A webcast recording of the briefing, hosted by Chief Executive Simon Trott and Chief ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Discloses Executive Dealings Under Global and UK Share Plans
Neutral
Jul 22, 2026
Rio Tinto has reported recent share transactions by persons discharging managerial responsibility under its Global Employee Share Plan and UK Share Plan, reflecting routine vesting and acquisition activity by key executives. The disclosure, made s...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Reports Executive Share Transactions Under Global and UK Plans
Neutral
Jul 22, 2026
Rio Tinto has disclosed a series of share transactions involving senior executives under its Global Employee Share Plan and UK Share Plan. The filings, made under Market Abuse Regulation article 19, detail awards, vesting of matching shares, and l...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rio Tinto lifts H1 output, cuts copper costs as Simandou advances
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
Rio Tinto reported a 3% year-on-year increase in copper equivalent production in the first half of 2026, underpinned by record first-half Pilbara iron ore output since 2018, a 31% rise in copper production at Oyu Tolgoi, resilient aluminium operat...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto updates market on voting rights and dual-listed share structure
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
Rio Tinto plc has updated the market on its capital structure, confirming that as of 30 June 2026 it has 1,256,038,698 issued ordinary shares of 10p each, of which 992,389 are held in treasury and therefore do not carry voting or dividend rights. ...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto makes minor share issue to fund employee share plan
Neutral
Jul 1, 2026
Rio Tinto has issued and allotted 114 ordinary shares of 10 pence each between 1 June and 30 June 2026 under its Global Employee Share Plan, with the new shares admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market and ranking equal...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Seeks LSE Admission for New Shares to Fund Employee Plan
Neutral
Jun 18, 2026
Rio Tinto plc has applied to the London Stock Exchange for the admission of 23,000 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each to be traded on the Main Market. The shares, which are expected to be admitted on 23 June 2026, will be issued to satisfy award...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto reports share purchase by key executive under dual-listed disclosure rules
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
Rio Tinto disclosed a routine managerial share dealing, reporting that key management figure Ben Wyatt acquired 300 Rio Tinto Limited shares on 9 June 2026 at a price of A$181.37 per share. The transaction, notified to both the London and Australi...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Rio Tinto Updates Share Capital After Employee Share Plan Issuance
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
Rio Tinto has issued and allotted 574 new ordinary shares of 10 pence each between 1 May and 29 May 2026 to satisfy awards under its Global Employee Share Plan, with the shares admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market u...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.