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Glencore (GLEN) AI Stock Analysis
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Glencore
(LSE:GLEN)
The score is driven primarily by middling financial fundamentals (thin/volatile profitability, weak free-cash-flow conversion, and rising leverage) despite improving results. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, and the earnings call added a positive boost via strong H1 performance, debt reduction and shareholder returns, partially offset by cost pressures and safety incidents. Valuation meaningfully detracts due to the very high P/E and zero dividend yield.
Glencore (GLEN) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- GBP 60.88B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.56%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 36.97M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 15.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 1.15
- Revenue Growth
- 26.71%
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- UK
- Employees
- 140,000
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Industrial Materials
Glencore Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Based in Baar, Switzerland, and established in 1974, Glencore plc operates as a global diversified commodity company involved in the production, refining, processing, storage, transportation, and marketing of a wide array of metals, minerals, and ene...
How the Company Makes Money
Glencore makes money primarily through two complementary activities: (1) commodity marketing (trading) and (2) industrial production (mining and processing). 1) Commodity marketing (trading) revenue and earnings: - Glencore’s marketing business gener...
Glencore Earnings Call Summary
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: robust adjusted EBITDA (US$10.1bn), exceptional marketing results, marked cash generation (FFO +158%), net debt reduction and active capital returns alongside clear progress on a sizeable copper growth pipeline and an ASX secondary listing. Counterbalancing this are meaningful short‑term cost pressures (diesel, sulphur, sulphuric acid), increased working capital/margin calls, some mine‑specific underperformance and, most seriously, four fatalities that prompted intensified safety actions. On balance, the positives (earnings, cash, growth milestones, shareholder returns) materially outweigh the transitory and operational negatives.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The group reiterated it is on track to meet full‑year operational guidance after delivering H1 production within guidance for a second consecutive year, reporting H1 adjusted industrial EBITDA of $6.5bn, adjusted marketing EBIT $3.3bn and total adjusted EBITDA $10.1bn, with net debt down $1.0bn to $10.2bn and funds from operations of $8.1bn (up 158%). Management kept 2026 capital plans broadly unchanged but increased assumed CapEx ~5% from the $6.5bn starting point (H1 industrial CapEx $3.9bn) and announced a $1.5bn shareholder return (US$1.0bn cash + $0.5bn buyback). Copper targets remain circa 1.0Mtpa baseline by 2028 and ~1.6Mtpa by 2035 (Alumbrera now expected to restart late‑2027; KCC pathway to 300ktpa; Collahuasi leach cathode expected by year‑end), and the company confirmed an Oct‑2026 ASX secondary listing with an ambition to reach ASX200 (AUD1.5bn on‑line within 12 months) and ultimately ASX100 (~AUD5.5bn).
Glencore Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue rebounded in 2025 and net income returned to positive, but profitability remains extremely thin (net margin ~0.1%) and margins are notably weaker than 2021–2022. Leverage is manageable but trending higher (debt-to-equity ~1.10 in 2025), and cash generation is less reliable with very light 2025 free cash flow (~$0.4B) and weak FCF conversion versus net income.
Income Statement
56NeutralBalance Sheet
60NeutralCash Flow
52Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 303.69B | 252.75B | 230.94B | 217.83B | 255.98B | 203.75B |
| Gross Profit | 10.24B | 5.49B | 6.28B | 10.78B | 27.26B | 12.38B |
| EBITDA | 14.27B | 10.52B | 9.93B | 14.68B | 32.23B | 16.03B |
| Net Income | 5.39B | 370.62M | -1.63B | 4.28B | 17.32B | 4.97B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 156.25B | 142.25B | 130.46B | 123.87B | 132.58B | 127.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.64B | 2.95B | 2.17B | 1.95B | 1.97B | 2.69B |
| Total Debt | 45.49B | 41.49B | 38.11B | 32.24B | 28.78B | 34.64B |
| Total Liabilities | 119.25B | 108.63B | 94.80B | 85.63B | 87.36B | 90.59B |
| Stockholders Equity | 41.94B | 38.87B | 40.67B | 43.58B | 49.41B | 39.93B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -97.01M | 395.12M | 4.44B | 6.55B | 9.48B | 5.24B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.56B | 6.45B | 10.05B | 11.04B | 13.66B | 8.86B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.30B | -4.95B | -11.72B | -3.56B | -1.72B | -541.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -321.46M | -1.00B | 2.14B | -7.49B | -13.20B | -6.52B |
Glencore Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GLEN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 519.50 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 559.20, below the 50-day MA of 571.90, and below the 200-day MA of 541.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -10.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GLEN.
Glencore Risk Analysis
Glencore disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Glencore reported the most risks in the "Macro & Political" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksGlencore Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
GB:RIO61Neutral- GB:GLEN59Neutral
GB:ALL50Neutral
GB:AAL48Neutral
GB:JLP47Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
| GB:RIO | 61Neutral | GBP 105.22B | 10.99 | 18.86% | 5.72% | 10.86% | 13.41% |
| GB:GLEN | 59Neutral | GBP 60.88B | 15.28 | 13.34% | 2.56% | 26.71% | ― |
| GB:ALL | 50Neutral | GBP 131.45M | -33.68 | -14.73% | ― | ― | -2.08% |
| GB:AAL | 48Neutral | GBP 39.97B | -20.85 | -15.45% | 0.78% | -13.95% | 40.97% |
| GB:JLP | 47Neutral | GBP 57.48M | -1.54 | -18.64% | ― | ― | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:GLEN | Glencore plc | 519.50 | 170.35 | 48.79% | |
| GB:AAL | Anglo American | 3704.00 | 926.74 | 33.37% | |
| GB:ALL | Atlantic Lithium Ltd. | 16.40 | 7.50 | 84.27% | |
| GB:JLP | Jubilee Metals Group PLC | 1.70 | -1.50 | -46.88% | |
| GB:RIO | Rio Tinto (LSE:RIO) | 6094.00 | 985.25 | 19.29% |
Glencore Corporate Events
Glencore Advances Share Buy-Back With Off-Market Repurchase From UBS
PositiveGlencore has executed an off-market repurchase of 2,640,000 of its ordinary shares from UBS AG at a gross price of CHF 6.7596 per share, subject to Swiss withholding tax, as part of its existing share buy-back programme. The shares acquired will be c...
Glencore Sets Multi‑Currency Amounts for US$0.17 Per Share 2026 Distribution
PositiveGlencore has confirmed the currency amounts for its previously approved aggregate distribution of US$0.17 per share relating to the 2025 financial year, including a special cash distribution, all paid from capital contribution reserves. The payment,...
Glencore Announces Additional $1 Billion Cash Distribution to Shareholders
PositiveGlencore plc has announced an additional cash distribution of $0.085 per ordinary share from its capital contribution reserves, totalling about $1 billion, to be paid alongside the previously approved second tranche distribution of the same amount. T...
Glencore rides commodity surge with profit jump and plans ASX listing
PositiveGlencore reported a sharp rebound in first-half 2026 results, as surging energy and metals prices and heightened market volatility linked to the Middle East conflict drove Group Adjusted EBITDA up 86% to $10.1 billion and net income to $4.4 billion....
Glencore lifts copper output and holds guidance as marketing earnings stay strong
PositiveGlencore reported a robust operational performance for the first half of 2026, with own‑sourced copper output rising 15% year on year to 397,000 tonnes, driven by higher mining rates and grades in African Copper and stronger grades at Peru̵...
Glencore Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights After Employee Trust Share Purchase
NeutralGlencore has confirmed that as of 30 June 2026 its issued share capital comprised 13,003,464,600 ordinary shares, of which 1,265,485,108 were held in treasury and therefore did not carry voting rights. This leaves a total of 11,737,979,492 voting rig...
Glencore Director Martin Gilbert Joins Liontrust Board After River Global Deal
PositiveGlencore has disclosed that non-executive director Martin Gilbert has been appointed an independent non-executive director on the board of Liontrust Asset Management, effective 1 July 2026, following Liontrust’s acquisition of River Global Hold...
Glencore sets dates for 2026 half-year production and results updates
NeutralGlencore, the global diversified natural resource group and major producer and marketer of over 60 commodities, operates an extensive network of industrial and marketing assets that support customers in automotive, steel, power generation, battery an...
Glencore Chair Joins Board of Newly Listed NYSE Company Sinda Ltd.
PositiveGlencore has disclosed that its non-executive chairman, Kalidas Madhavpeddi, has joined the board of Sinda Ltd. as a non-executive director, following Sinda’s public listing on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SIND on 26 June 2026....
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 05, 2026