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NatWest Group
(LSE:NWG)
Select Model
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
802.00 p
▲(16.20% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance despite a notable cash flow red flag, plus a strong and upgraded earnings outlook from the latest call. Attractive valuation (low P/E and healthy dividend yield) supports the score, while near-term technicals look strong but somewhat overheated, limiting upside to the rating.
Positive Factors
High return on tangible equity
A RoTE near 20% signals efficient capital conversion and profitable core banking franchises. That level of returns supports organic capital generation, distributions and potential buybacks, improving investor-return durability and providing a buffer against cyclical earnings shocks.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Inconsistent operating and free cash flow undermines the reliability of internally generated funds for capital, dividends and investment. Persistent volatility increases dependence on wholesale issuance or balance-sheet actions, complicating medium-term capital planning and raising structural financing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High return on tangible equity
A RoTE near 20% signals efficient capital conversion and profitable core banking franchises. That level of returns supports organic capital generation, distributions and potential buybacks, improving investor-return durability and providing a buffer against cyclical earnings shocks.
Read all positive factors
NatWest Group (NWG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£54.62B
Dividend Yield5.13%
Average Volume (3M)17.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)1.61
Revenue Growth2.78%
EPS Growth24.91%
CountryUK
Employees59,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.90
Shares Outstanding7,949,276,400
10 Day Avg. Volume12,779,314
30 Day Avg. Volume17,441,049
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.78
P/FCF Ratio-3.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£802.00Price Target Upside16.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)£18.11B
NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NatWest Group plc, a venerable financial institution established in Edinburgh, UK, in 1727, delivers a comprehensive array of banking and financial services. Serving a broad spectrum of clients, including individual consumers, small and medium-siz...
How the Company Makes Money
NatWest Group makes money mainly by earning interest and fees from providing banking and related financial services.
1) Net interest income (interest margin): A core driver is the spread between (a) interest earned on assets such as mortgages, pe...
NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operating performance: robust profitability and ROtE, broad-based CAL and loan growth, improved efficiency and solid capital and liquidity metrics. Management upgraded guidance for 2026 and highlighted successful strategic execution including the Evelyn Partners acquisition and return to covered bonds. Near-term negatives are manageable: provisioning for uncertainty, a projected Basel 3.1 RWA uplift (EUR ~10bn) as a future headwind, some reduction in primary liquidity tied to lending and the acquisition, and the need to complete remaining H2 issuance. Overall, highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong profitability and ROTE
Return on tangible equity was industry-leading at 19.7% for the period with quarterly ROtE of 21%; profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was GBP 1.6bn and operating profit grew 12.4% to GBP 2.3bn.
Negative Updates
Provisioning for economic uncertainty
The Group carries economic uncertainty post-model adjustment of GBP 284m with total post-model adjustments (PMAs) of GBP 316m, reflecting prudence against macro risk.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong profitability and ROTE
Return on tangible equity was industry-leading at 19.7% for the period with quarterly ROtE of 21%; profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was GBP 1.6bn and operating profit grew 12.4% to GBP 2.3bn.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management upgraded 2026 guidance: they now expect full‑year income excluding notables of around £17.9bn, other operating expenses of about £8.5bn, capital generation before distributions and the impact of Evelyn Partners of >240bps, and a return on tangible equity of >19% (next buyback to be announced with FY results in Feb). They reiterated a loan impairment rate below 25bps for 2026 and cited H1 metrics supporting the outlook — CET1 of 14.0% before distributions (13.2% after accruing 50% of H1 profit), H1 CET1 generation ~197bps (including 31bps from RWA management; investment spend -19bps; organic lending growth -61bps), total MREL 30.6%, AT1 ratio 2.5% (EUR5.1bn outstanding), Tier‑2 ratio 3.1% (US$6.3bn), spot leverage 4.7% (avg 4.8% v minimum 4.3%), average LCR 140%, NSFR 132%, primary liquidity £152bn (total liquidity £224.6bn), loan‑to‑deposit 90%, and customer assets & liabilities (CAL) £986.9bn (up £86.8bn q/q; CAL +13.4% YoY); they also assume a ~€10bn RWA uplift from Basel 3.1 effective 1 Jan 2027.NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.58B | 29.48B | 28.57B | 24.76B | 16.15B | 12.04B |
| Gross Profit | 16.97B | 16.61B | 14.65B | 14.78B | 13.35B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 9.10B | 8.86B | 7.25B | 7.11B | 5.96B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 5.99B | 5.83B | 4.80B | 4.64B | 3.59B | 3.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 749.64B | 714.55B | 707.99B | 692.67B | 720.05B | 781.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 135.78B | 98.23B | 182.46B | 104.52B | 145.06B | 177.76B |
| Total Debt | 6.64B | 71.83B | 65.92B | 127.26B | 116.55B | 125.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 705.97B | 671.94B | 668.61B | 655.49B | 683.56B | 740.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.08B | 38.03B | 39.35B | 37.16B | 36.49B | 41.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -17.35B | 694.00M | -14.92B | -44.24B | 52.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -16.68B | 1.77B | -13.37B | -43.60B | 53.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -15.91B | -12.70B | -14.69B | 19.06B | 3.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 22.41B | -1.89B | -23.52B | -10.65B | -2.60B |
NatWest Group Technical Analysis
Positive
690.20
Price Trends
679.36
Positive
634.75
Positive
610.82
Positive
Market Momentum
2.90
Positive
46.89
Neutral
59.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NWG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 690.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 691.06, above the 50-day MA of 679.36, and above the 200-day MA of 610.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:NWG.
NatWest Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | £54.62B | 7.18 | 16.16% | 5.13% | 2.78% | 24.91% | |
72 Outperform | £65.41B | 9.96 | 10.11% | 2.37% | 8.23% | 18.19% | |
72 Outperform | £265.84B | 14.65 | 13.03% | 3.64% | -7.93% | 35.55% | |
68 Neutral | £49.32B | 14.27 | 10.35% | 2.26% | -12.87% | 12.23% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | £63.45B | 13.54 | 11.05% | 3.68% | -16.61% | 21.26% | |
52 Neutral | £193.52M | 18.04 | 2.20% | 12.35% | 6.21% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:NWG
NatWest Group
697.80
198.12
39.65%
GB:STAN
Standard Chartered
2,298.00
905.38
65.01%
GB:BARC
Barclays
493.75
122.23
32.90%
GB:HSBA
HSBC Holdings
1,552.60
589.21
61.16%
GB:LLOY
Lloyds Banking
111.15
31.60
39.73%
GB:VANQ
Vanquis Banking Group
78.90
-27.50
-25.85%
NatWest Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NatWest to Redeem £1bn Tier 2 Notes Ahead of Maturity
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
NatWest Group plc is a major U.K.-based banking and financial services group, providing retail and commercial banking, treasury, and capital markets services. The group focuses on lending, deposit-taking, and debt capital markets activities for a ...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Updates £40bn Euro Medium Term Note Programme with New Supplementary Prospectus
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
NatWest Group has published a fourth supplementary prospectus to its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, originally established in December 2025 and approved by the Financial Conduct Authority. The updated document has been filed wit...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Updates £40bn Euro Medium-Term Note Programme
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group has published a third supplementary prospectus for its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, originally established in December 2025 and now updated as of 31 July 2026. The document, approved by the Financial Conduct Auth...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Advances Share Buyback, Adjusts Voting Rights Base
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing more than three million ordinary shares over the past week across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE at volume‑weight...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group plc is a leading U.K. banking group offering a broad range of retail, commercial and institutional financial services to individuals, businesses and large corporate clients. It operates under U.K. and international regulatory regimes...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
NatWest Group Delivers Strong H1 2026 Results and Accelerates Growth Strategy
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group reported strong interim results for the first half of 2026, highlighting attributable profit of £3.0 billion and a Return on Tangible Equity of 19.7%, alongside capital generation of 137 basis points before distributions. The ba...
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
NatWest profit and earnings surge on higher income in first half of 2026
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group reported a strong first-half 2026 performance, with net interest income rising to £6.89 billion from £6.12 billion and total income increasing to £8.86 billion. Loans to customers expanded to £435.9 billion and cu...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Steps Up Buyback as Treasury Share Count Rises
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its ongoing share buyback programme, repurchasing several tranches of ordinary shares from UBS AG’s London branch over the past week across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE. The bank inten...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest advances buyback with fresh share purchases and cancellations
Positive
Jul 17, 2026
NatWest Group has continued to execute its share buyback programme, purchasing several million ordinary shares over the past week from UBS across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE. The transactions were made at prices in th...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest advances share buyback with July market purchases
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
NatWest Group has continued to execute its share buyback programme, purchasing more than 2.3 million ordinary shares over several trading days in July across the London Stock Exchange, Cboe Europe (CHIX) and BATE venues. The transactions were carr...
Business Operations and Strategy
NatWest Group Adds Jefferies as Joint Corporate Broker
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
NatWest Group plc is a major U.K.-based banking and financial services institution, offering retail, commercial and corporate banking solutions. The group serves a broad range of customers, from individuals to large corporates, and is a significan...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Directors Lift Shareholdings Under Governance Policy
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed that its chair and several non‑executive directors, including the senior independent director, purchased modest quantities of ordinary shares on 1 July 2026 on the London Stock Exchange under the company’s s...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
NatWest seals £2.7bn Evelyn Partners deal to build U.K. wealth giant
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
NatWest Group has completed its £2.7 billion acquisition of wealth manager Evelyn Partners, creating what it describes as the U.K.’s leading private banking and wealth management franchise. The deal combines Evelyn’s £69 bill...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Updates Total Voting Rights and Share Capital
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
NatWest Group plc reported its total voting rights and issued share capital as of 30 June 2026, detailing ordinary shares in circulation, those held in treasury and cumulative preference shares. The bank’s ordinary shares have a nominal valu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NatWest strengthens board with appointment of former BMO executive Ernie Johannson
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
NatWest Group has appointed Erminia (Ernie) Johannson as an independent non-executive director effective 1 July 2026, adding a seasoned executive with more than three decades of experience in banking and investment management to its board. Johanns...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Discloses Share Sale by Interim Chief Risk Officer
Neutral
Jun 24, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed a share transaction by interim group chief risk officer Sean Pilcher, who sold 35,328 ordinary shares in the bank at £6.57 each on 24 June 2026. The sale, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, was reported in lin...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest discloses share sale by Commercial & Institutional CEO
Neutral
Jun 17, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed a share transaction by one of its senior executives under UK Market Abuse Regulation reporting rules. Robert Begbie, CEO of the bank’s Commercial Institutional division, sold 150,000 ordinary shares in the group ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest prices USD 1.25bn senior callable notes to bolster funding
Positive
Jun 16, 2026
NatWest Group plc has priced a USD 1.25 billion issuance of 4.983% Senior Callable Fixed-to-Fixed Reset Rate Notes due 2032, with proceeds earmarked to support its general banking business. The transaction, expected to close on 18 June 2026 subjec...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest steps up share buybacks with fresh £1 nominal stock repurchases
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its share buyback programme, purchasing more than 3.4 million ordinary shares over several trading venues between 8 and 11 June 2026 at volume-weighted average prices around 589 to 596 pence. The company has stated that...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Executives Receive Vested Share Awards and Execute Planned Stock Sales
Neutral
Jun 10, 2026
NatWest Group has reported the vesting of deferred share awards under its 2024 Employee Share Plan to several senior executives, including CEO Paul Thwaite and CFO Katie Murray, with shares both retained and withheld to cover tax liabilities at a ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest advances buyback with fresh share purchases and cancellations
Positive
Jun 5, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its existing share buyback programme, purchasing several tranches of ordinary shares over the period 1–5 June 2026 from UBS across multiple trading venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHI-X and BATS Europe...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Continues Share Buyback, Cancels Newly Repurchased Stock
Positive
May 29, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its capital management strategy by repurchasing ordinary shares as part of its existing buyback programme, executing transactions through UBS on multiple trading venues. The bank intends to cancel the repurchased stock,...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest updates shareholders on total voting rights and share capital
Neutral
May 29, 2026
NatWest Group has confirmed the composition of its share capital and voting rights as of 29 May 2026, detailing nearly 8.16 billion shares in issue across ordinary and preference share classes. The disclosure shows approximately 7.97 billion ordin...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest discloses share sale by Private Banking & Wealth CEO
Neutral
May 29, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed a share transaction involving one of its senior executives, in line with UK Market Abuse Regulation requirements. The group, a key player in UK retail and private banking, runs a significant Private Banking Wealth Mana...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Continues Share Buyback, Plans Cancellation of Repurchased Shares
Positive
May 22, 2026
NatWest Group has continued executing its share buyback programme, repurchasing hundreds of thousands of ordinary shares over several trading venues between 18 and 21 May 2026. The purchases, carried out via UBS on the London Stock Exchange and al...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Advances Buyback with New Round of Share Repurchases
Positive
May 15, 2026
NatWest Group has continued executing its existing share buyback programme, repurchasing several million ordinary shares over the past week through UBS across multiple trading venues, including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE. The purchas...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NatWest grants and vests executive share awards under 2024 plan
Neutral
May 14, 2026
NatWest Group has granted and immediately vested Sharing in Success awards under its 2024 Employee Share Plan to several senior executives, including CEO Paul Thwaite and other key PDMRs, with shares subject to clawback for up to ten years and a 1...
Business Operations and Strategy
Fitch lifts NatWest subsidiaries’ ratings to AA, outlook stable
Positive
May 13, 2026
NatWest Group said Fitch Ratings has upgraded the long-term Issuer Default Ratings of several key banking subsidiaries, including National Westminster Bank, The Royal Bank of Scotland and NatWest Markets entities, to AA from AA-, following changes...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Discloses Share Sale by Commercial and Institutional CEO
Neutral
May 12, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed that Robert Begbie, its CEO for Commercial Institutional, sold 150,000 ordinary shares in the bank at a price of £5.8358 per share on 11 May 2026. The transaction, carried out on the London Stock Exchange, is repo...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Advances Share Buyback, Cancels 2.75 Million Shares
Positive
May 8, 2026
NatWest Group has continued to execute its existing share buyback programme, purchasing around 2.75 million ordinary shares over the past week through UBS across the London Stock Exchange and other venues. The bank plans to cancel the repurchased ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Board Boosts Shareholdings via Dividend Reinvestment
Positive
May 7, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed that several persons discharging managerial responsibility, including chair Rick Haythornthwaite and multiple independent non-executive directors, have increased their holdings in the bank through dividend reinvestment....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.