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NatWest Group
(LSE:NWG)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
699.00 p
▲(1.27% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/30/26
The score is driven primarily by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and a strong, confidence-leaning earnings call with maintained guidance, solid growth, and robust capital generation. These positives are tempered by financial-statement risk from volatile and recently negative cash flow and by weak technical momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
Broad-Based Customer Growth
Growth across lending, deposits and customer balances indicates broad demand across NatWest’s three businesses rather than reliance on one product. Continued expansion can deepen relationships, improve scale and support recurring income over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent Margin Pressure
Flat net interest margin limits the ability of loan growth to translate into faster revenue expansion. Mortgage repricing, lending mix and increased wholesale funding may continue offsetting structural-hedge benefits, keeping profitability dependent on volume and cost discipline.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Broad-Based Customer Growth
Growth across lending, deposits and customer balances indicates broad demand across NatWest’s three businesses rather than reliance on one product. Continued expansion can deepen relationships, improve scale and support recurring income over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
NatWest Group (NWG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£50.23B
Dividend Yield5.51%
Average Volume (3M)20.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.7
Beta (1Y)1.63
Revenue Growth2.78%
EPS Growth24.91%
CountryUK
Employees59,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.90
Shares Outstanding7,918,022,500
10 Day Avg. Volume18,866,027
30 Day Avg. Volume20,047,443
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.34
Price to Book (P/B)1.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.78
P/FCF Ratio-3.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£823.00Price Target Upside19.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)£18.11B
NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NatWest Group plc, a venerable financial institution established in Edinburgh, UK, in 1727, delivers a comprehensive array of banking and financial services. Serving a broad spectrum of clients, including individual consumers, small and medium-siz...
How the Company Makes Money
NatWest Group makes money mainly through banking spread and fee-based income across its customer segments. The largest driver is net interest income: the group earns interest on interest-bearing assets such as residential mortgages, personal and b...
NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. NatWest reported broad-based balance-sheet growth, improving operating leverage, strong earnings and returns, resilient credit performance, high capital generation, and a robust capital and liquidity position. The main challenges were broadly stable margins, higher quarterly impairments, deposit growth lagging lending growth, mortgage-margin pressure, and a planned Q4 cost step-up, but management maintained its guidance and expressed confidence in continued growth and returns.Positive Updates
Strong Customer Balance Growth
Customer assets and liabilities grew 14.2% in Q3, well above the target of more than 4%, while customer lending increased 7.7% and deposits grew 4.3%. Management said growth was disciplined and broad-based across all three businesses.
Negative Updates
Net Interest Margin Remains Broadly Flat
Net interest margin was broadly stable at 250 basis points in Q3, as deposit-margin expansion was offset by mortgage repricing, lending mix, and the annual review of customer repayment habits. Management expects NIM to remain broadly stable through 2027, with lower-margin lending, increased wholesale funding, and mix effects offsetting structural-hedge benefits.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Customer Balance Growth
Customer assets and liabilities grew 14.2% in Q3, well above the target of more than 4%, while customer lending increased 7.7% and deposits grew 4.3%. Management said growth was disciplined and broad-based across all three businesses.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
2026 guidance remains unchanged, with one enhancement: full-year income, excluding notable items, of around GBP 17.9 billion; other operating expenses of around GBP 8.5 billion, including around GBP 300 million of costs from the Evelyn Partners acquisition; impairment below 25 basis points, with 20-30 basis points through the cycle; capital generation before distributions and the impact of Evelyn Partners of more than 240 basis points in 2026; a CET1 ratio of around 13%; and risk-weighted assets of around GBP 210 billion as at January 1, 2027. The group expects customer balance growth in line with greater than 4% CAL growth, NIM to be flatter in H2 and broadly stable through 2027, Bank of England bank rates to remain at 4% throughout 2027, the five-year swap rate to moderate to a 4% average for 2027, structural hedge income to be more than GBP 1 billion higher in 2027 versus 2026 and contribute over GBP 7 billion into the income line, and the mortgage book margin to settle around 60 basis points for the year.NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 29.58B | 29.48B | 28.57B | 24.76B | 16.15B | 12.04B |
| Gross Profit | 16.97B | 16.61B | 14.65B | 14.78B | 13.35B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 9.10B | 8.86B | 7.25B | 7.11B | 5.96B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 5.99B | 5.83B | 4.80B | 4.64B | 3.59B | 3.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 749.64B | 714.55B | 707.99B | 692.67B | 720.05B | 781.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 135.78B | 98.23B | 182.46B | 104.52B | 145.06B | 177.76B |
| Total Debt | 6.64B | 71.83B | 65.92B | 127.26B | 116.55B | 125.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 705.97B | 671.94B | 668.61B | 655.49B | 683.56B | 740.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.08B | 38.03B | 39.35B | 37.16B | 36.49B | 41.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -17.35B | 694.00M | -14.92B | -44.24B | 52.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -16.68B | 1.77B | -13.37B | -43.60B | 53.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -15.91B | -12.70B | -14.69B | 19.06B | 3.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 22.41B | -1.89B | -23.52B | -10.65B | -2.60B |
NatWest Group Technical Analysis
Negative
690.20
Price Trends
672.14
Negative
668.39
Negative
622.55
Negative
Market Momentum
-15.34
Positive
29.19
Positive
32.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:NWG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 690.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 646.55, above the 50-day MA of 672.14, and above the 200-day MA of 622.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -15.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.19 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:NWG.
NatWest Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | £50.23B | 6.69 | 16.16% | 5.51% | 2.78% | 24.91% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | £221.49B | 11.16 | 14.16% | 4.31% | -3.54% | 58.76% | |
66 Neutral | £56.46B | 10.09 | 13.09% | 4.06% | -1.77% | 70.61% | |
64 Neutral | £57.47B | 8.54 | 10.79% | 2.66% | 6.60% | 23.56% | |
59 Neutral | £45.67B | 11.76 | 11.30% | 2.44% | -9.55% | 21.01% | |
51 Neutral | £109.95M | 10.10 | 2.20% | 12.35% | 6.21% | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
GB:NWG
NatWest Group
579.60
28.18
5.11%
GB:STAN
Standard Chartered
2,055.00
541.03
35.74%
GB:BARC
Barclays
415.05
17.24
4.33%
GB:HSBA
HSBC Holdings
1,277.00
259.66
25.52%
GB:LLOY
Lloyds Banking
93.50
7.71
8.99%
GB:VANQ
Vanquis Banking Group
43.10
-70.90
-62.19%
NatWest Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NatWest Group Raises USD 1 Billion in Senior Notes to Fund Banking Operations
Positive
Oct 14, 2026
NatWest Group has priced a USD 1 billion issuance of 5.908% senior callable fixed-to-fixed reset rate notes due 2032, tapping U.S. dollar debt markets to bolster its funding profile. The proceeds will be used to support the group’s general b...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest advances buyback programme, cancels newly repurchased shares
Positive
Oct 9, 2026
NatWest Group has continued to execute its share buyback programme, purchasing several million ordinary shares over 7–9 October 2026 across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE at volume‑weighted average prices aro...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest directors boost shareholdings in line with board policy
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed that its chair and a number of independent non-executive directors have purchased ordinary shares in the bank on 1 October 2026, in line with the company’s Chairman and Non-executive Director shareholding policy. ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Tightens Capital Structure With Ongoing Share Buyback
Positive
Oct 2, 2026
NatWest Group plc has continued to actively manage its equity base with a series of on-market repurchases of ordinary shares over the week to 2 October 2026, executed via UBS across the London Stock Exchange and alternative trading venues. The pur...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Reports PDMR Share Purchase Under Employee Plan
Positive
Sep 30, 2026
NatWest Group disclosed a routine transaction under U.K. market abuse rules, involving its Buy As You Earn share plan for senior staff. The bank continues to emphasize governance and transparency around executive-related share dealings, underscori...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Updates Investors on Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Sep 30, 2026
NatWest Group plc is a leading U.K. banking and financial services provider, offering retail, commercial and corporate banking products to a wide range of customers. Its listed equity structure and adherence to Financial Conduct Authority disclosu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NatWest Group Names New Chair for Performance and Remuneration Committee
Positive
Sep 29, 2026
NatWest Group plc has announced a change in board leadership, with Roisin Donnelly set to succeed Lena Wilson as Chair of the Group Performance and Remuneration Committee from 1 October 2026. Chair Rick Haythornthwaite praised Wilson’s leade...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Expands Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights Count
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
NatWest Group has continued executing its share buyback programme, purchasing more than 3 million ordinary shares over the week of 22 to 25 September 2026 across the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE venues. The shares were acquired from UBS un...
DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Directors Reinvest Dividend in Additional Shares
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed share transactions by several persons discharging managerial responsibilities, including Chair Rick Haythornthwaite and multiple independent non-executive directors. These individuals acquired ordinary shares on 18 Sept...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest steps up buyback with nearly 2 million shares repurchased and slated for cancellation
Positive
Sep 18, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its ongoing share buyback programme, repurchasing more than 1.98 million ordinary shares over the week of 14–15 September 2026 across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE, at volume-weighted a...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Continues Share Buyback, Updates Voting Rights Total
Positive
Sep 11, 2026
NatWest Group plc has continued to execute its share buyback programme, purchasing nearly 2.7 million ordinary shares over 8–10 September 2026 across the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE venues. The trades, conducted via UBS AG London Br...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest discloses routine share plan purchases by senior executive
Positive
Sep 2, 2026
NatWest Group has reported transactions under its Buy As You Earn Share Plan involving Chief Customer Operations Officer James Holian, reflecting routine share purchases made on his behalf. The disclosure, required under U.K. Market Abuse Regulat...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest expands buyback with latest round of share repurchases
Positive
Aug 28, 2026
NatWest Group has disclosed a series of share repurchases carried out between 24 and 28 August 2026 under its existing buyback programme with UBS as executing broker. The bank bought back several million ordinary shares across venues including the...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Reports Updated Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Aug 28, 2026
NatWest Group has reported its total issued share capital and voting rights as of 28 August 2026, confirming 7.95 billion ordinary shares in issue excluding treasury shares and an overall total of 31.81 billion voting rights. The disclosure, which...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
NatWest Continues Share Buyback, Cancels Newly Repurchased Shares
Positive
Aug 21, 2026
NatWest Group has continued its ongoing share buyback programme, repurchasing several million ordinary shares over the week of 17–21 August 2026 through UBS across the London Stock Exchange and other trading venues. The buyback, executed wit...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Advances Share Buyback and Updates Voting Rights
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
NatWest Group has continued executing its existing share buyback programme, purchasing a series of ordinary shares from UBS AG’s London branch across several venues, including the LSE, CHIX and BATE, over 13 and 14 August 2026. The bank inte...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NatWest grants deferred share awards to senior executives under 2024 plan
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
NatWest Group has delivered ordinary shares to several senior executives under its 2024 Employee Share Plan as part of a fixed share allowance for the quarter ending 30 September 2026. The awards, which were calculated using a reference share pric...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Publishes H1 2026 Pillar 3 Disclosures for Major Subsidiaries
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
NatWest Group plc has published its H1 2026 Pillar 3 regulatory disclosures for several large subsidiaries, including NatWest Holdings Limited, NatWest Markets Plc, National Westminster Bank Plc, The Royal Bank of Scotland plc and Coutts Company....
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Executives Adopt Structured Share Trading Plans as Senior Manager Sells Stake
Neutral
Aug 5, 2026
NatWest Group has implemented structured trading plans for several senior executives, allowing up to 25% of their vested ordinary shares, free of regulatory retention requirements, to be sold under pre-set, irrevocable instructions. The plans, ent...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
NatWest to Redeem £1bn Tier 2 Notes Ahead of Maturity
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
NatWest Group plc is a major U.K.-based banking and financial services group, providing retail and commercial banking, treasury, and capital markets services. The group focuses on lending, deposit-taking, and debt capital markets activities for a ...
Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Updates £40bn Euro Medium Term Note Programme with New Supplementary Prospectus
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
NatWest Group has published a fourth supplementary prospectus to its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, originally established in December 2025 and approved by the Financial Conduct Authority. The updated document has been filed wit...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Updates £40bn Euro Medium-Term Note Programme
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group has published a third supplementary prospectus for its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, originally established in December 2025 and now updated as of 31 July 2026. The document, approved by the Financial Conduct Auth...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Advances Share Buyback, Adjusts Voting Rights Base
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing more than three million ordinary shares over the past week across venues including the London Stock Exchange, CHIX and BATE at volume‑weight...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
NatWest Group Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights
Neutral
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group plc is a leading U.K. banking group offering a broad range of retail, commercial and institutional financial services to individuals, businesses and large corporate clients. It operates under U.K. and international regulatory regimes...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
NatWest Group Delivers Strong H1 2026 Results and Accelerates Growth Strategy
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group reported strong interim results for the first half of 2026, highlighting attributable profit of £3.0 billion and a Return on Tangible Equity of 19.7%, alongside capital generation of 137 basis points before distributions. The ba...
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
NatWest profit and earnings surge on higher income in first half of 2026
Positive
Jul 31, 2026
NatWest Group reported a strong first-half 2026 performance, with net interest income rising to £6.89 billion from £6.12 billion and total income increasing to £8.86 billion. Loans to customers expanded to £435.9 billion and cu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.