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Mondi plc
(LSE:MNDI)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
901.00 p
▲(5.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/29/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial performance—low and pressured margins, volatile earnings, rising leverage versus 2024, and uneven free-cash-flow conversion. Offsetting this, technical indicators are moderately positive with supportive medium-term trend and positive MACD, while valuation is mixed with a solid dividend yield but a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Vertically integrated packaging value chain
Control across pulp, paper and packaging conversion can support supply reliability, capture margin at multiple stages and improve product integration. This diversified operating model provides a durable foundation across packaging end markets.
Negative Factors
Low and deteriorating profitability
Very low net margins and a sharp gross-margin decline indicate limited earnings protection from pricing, product mix or input-cost pressure. Persistent margin weakness could restrict reinvestment capacity and make results more vulnerable to cyclical market conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vertically integrated packaging value chain
Control across pulp, paper and packaging conversion can support supply reliability, capture margin at multiple stages and improve product integration. This diversified operating model provides a durable foundation across packaging end markets.
Read all positive factors
Mondi plc (MNDI) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£3.64B
Dividend Yield1.5%
Average Volume (3M)995.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth5.34%
EPS Growth-241.62%
CountryUK
Employees22,200
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryPaper, Lumber & Forest Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.59
Shares Outstanding441,412,540
10 Day Avg. Volume807,145
30 Day Avg. Volume995,769
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.15
Price to Book (P/B)0.97
Price to Sales (P/S)0.60
P/FCF Ratio21.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£867.50Price Target Upside1.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)£8.08B
Mondi plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mondi plc is a global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of packaging and paper solutions, with its headquarters located in Weybridge, UK. Established in 1967, its extensive operations reach across Africa, the Americas (Nor...
How the Company Makes Money
Mondi makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling packaging and paper products, earning revenue from both the production of paper/pulp inputs and the conversion of those inputs into higher-value packaging solutions. Its core revenue model i...
Mondi plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call communicates a mixed but controlled picture: management emphasised a resilient operating performance (EUR 1.0bn underlying EBITDA), strong cash generation (EUR 1.072bn), disciplined CapEx and successful integration of Schumacher with upgraded synergies, supported by productivity gains and liquidity headroom. Offsetting these positives are persistent cyclical market weakness, significant margin pressure (notably in uncoated fine paper, pulp and recycled containerboard), a material rise in net debt to EUR 2.6 billion (2.6x leverage), and short‑term losses/optimization needs at newly commissioned assets (e.g., Duino). Management’s actions on cost, CapEx discipline and plant/footprint optimization signal a proactive response, but industry overcapacity and pricing dynamics remain meaningful near‑term risks.Positive Updates
Resilient Underlying EBITDA
Underlying EBITDA of approximately EUR 1.0 billion for FY2025, only marginally down from EUR 1,049 million in the prior year (≈4.7% decline), described by management as a resilient outcome in a prolonged cyclical downturn.
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure and Price Weakness
Significant margin squeeze driven by substantially lower selling prices for uncoated fine paper and pulp during the year; containerboard and kraft prices moved up in H1 then weakened in H2, with renewed price pressure affecting margins across segments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Resilient Underlying EBITDA
Underlying EBITDA of approximately EUR 1.0 billion for FY2025, only marginally down from EUR 1,049 million in the prior year (≈4.7% decline), described by management as a resilient outcome in a prolonged cyclical downturn.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management guided to a cautious, cash-focused 2026 while flagging key 2025 metrics: underlying EBITDA ~EUR 1.0bn (vs EUR 1,049m prior year), cash generated from operations EUR 1.072bn, PP&E spend EUR 673m (below prior EUR 750–850m guide), dividends paid EUR 352m and net cash after interest/tax/other of EUR 767m; year‑end net debt rose from EUR 1.7bn to EUR 2.6bn (2.6x leverage) with available liquidity ~EUR 1.3bn, no covenants and no debt maturities until 2028. For 2026 they expect cash capex ~EUR 550m (base ~EUR 500m, ~EUR 50m still to flow for growth projects), maintenance/downtime guidance ~EUR 100m (EUR 20m H1 / EUR 80m H2), input costs broadly flat in early 2026 versus 2025, cost actions (≈1,000 headcount reductions in past 12 months plus ~200 more from three plant closures and ~13% fewer group services roles) to offset labor inflation, and Schumacher acquisition synergies of EUR 32m over three years (up from EUR 22m); the Board recommends an ordinary dividend of EUR 0.2825/share, returning to a 2–3x dividend cover policy.Mondi plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 7.73B | 7.66B | 7.42B | 7.33B | 8.90B | 6.97B |
| Gross Profit | 3.02B | 3.11B | 3.08B | 2.74B | 3.43B | 2.76B |
| EBITDA | 412.00M | 870.00M | 950.00M | 920.00M | 1.63B | 1.14B |
| Net Income | -260.00M | 165.00M | 218.00M | -153.00M | 1.45B | 756.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.05B | 10.16B | 9.34B | 9.96B | 10.85B | 9.26B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 169.92M | 296.36M | 278.00M | 1.61B | 1.07B | 473.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.81B | 2.88B | 2.02B | 2.02B | 2.07B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.03B | 4.95B | 3.99B | 3.87B | 4.59B | 4.37B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.53B | 4.73B | 4.86B | 5.66B | 5.79B | 4.50B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 262.33M | 213.08M | -143.00M | 465.00M | 891.00M | 624.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 865.01M | 923.03M | 851.00M | 1.36B | 1.45B | 1.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -592.15M | -1.19B | -936.00M | -482.00M | 32.00M | -670.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -280.07M | 295.57M | -1.23B | -541.00M | -572.00M | -372.00M |
Mondi plc Technical Analysis
Neutral
854.00
Price Trends
808.29
Positive
773.89
Positive
818.27
Positive
Market Momentum
2.84
Positive
43.20
Neutral
11.70
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MNDI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 854 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 855.95, above the 50-day MA of 808.29, and above the 200-day MA of 818.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GB:MNDI.
Mondi plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | £1.38B | 15.94 | 10.54% | ― | 4.46% | 100.00% | |
62 Neutral | £4.47B | 56.17 | 3.65% | 3.49% | 3.36% | -43.08% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | £2.83B | -39.23 | -4.66% | 4.79% | 7.70% | -128.58% | |
57 Neutral | £3.64B | -16.28 | -5.62% | 1.44% | 5.34% | -241.62% | |
55 Neutral | £904.47M | 23.95 | 3.36% | 6.39% | 1.89% | -44.49% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
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Mondi plc Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
Public Investment Corporation trims Mondi stake below 9%
Neutral
Aug 26, 2026
South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation SOC Ltd has reduced its shareholding in Mondi plc, crossing a regulatory threshold after disposing of voting rights. The investor’s stake in Mondi fell from 9.811% to 8.963%, equivalent to 3...
Other
Mondi CEO and CFO acquire shares under UK employee incentive plan
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
Mondi plc, an international packaging and paper group with listings in London and Johannesburg, operates an all-employee Share Incentive Plan in the UK. Through this HM Revenue and Customs-approved scheme, employees can buy ordinary Mondi shares v...
Dividends
Mondi sets currency terms for 2026 interim dividend across UK and South African registers
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
Mondi has declared an interim dividend of 9.42 euro cents per ordinary share for the year ending 31 December 2026, payable on 25 September 2026 to shareholders on the UK main and South African branch registers as of 21 August 2026. UK shareholders...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Public Investment Corporation Trims Stake in Mondi Below 10% Threshold
Neutral
Jul 20, 2026
Mondi plc has disclosed that South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation SOC Ltd has reduced its holding in the group, falling below a key notification threshold. The investor’s stake in Mondi now stands at 9.811% of the company’...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Mondi Executives Acquire Shares Under Employee Incentive Plan
Positive
Jul 8, 2026
Mondi plc, incorporated in England and Wales and dual-listed in London and Johannesburg, operates as a global packaging and paper group. Its capital structure includes ordinary shares of €0.22 each, and the company provides UK employees acce...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
JPMorgan Builds 5.3% Voting Stake in Mondi
Neutral
Jun 29, 2026
Mondi plc has disclosed that JPMorgan Chase Co. has crossed a major shareholding threshold in the company, triggering a regulatory notification of significant voting rights. The move reflects increased exposure to Mondi shares via a combination o...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mondi director Anke Groth joins Naturgy Energy Group board
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
Mondi plc has announced that independent non-executive director Anke Groth has been appointed as a non-executive director of Naturgy Energy Group, S.A., effective 18 June 2026. The company said the disclosure is made in line with UK Listing Rules,...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mondi executives acquire shares under UK employee incentive plan
Neutral
Jun 8, 2026
Mondi plc has reported director dealings under its UK-approved Share Incentive Plan, an all-employee trust arrangement that allows UK staff to buy Mondi shares through salary deductions and receive free matching shares. The plan is designed to ali...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.