Mobico Group (MCG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £186.89M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: -4.74%
• EPS Growth: -610.71%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 51,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Railroads
• EPS (TTM): -0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 614,086,360
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,755,272
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,613,639
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £46.67
• Price Target Upside: 52.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: 31.00p ▲(1.24% Upside)

Mobico Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its challenging financial performance, with consistent net losses and high leverage. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the valuation is unattractive due to a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield. While the earnings call highlighted some positive revenue growth, significant operational and debt challenges persist.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent revenue growth, particularly driven by ALSA, indicates a strong market demand and effective service delivery, supporting long-term expansion.

ALSA Performance

ALSA's robust performance and passenger growth in Spain highlight its competitive advantage and potential for sustained profitability.

New Contracts

Securing new contracts, especially large ones like in Saudi Arabia, can diversify revenue streams and enhance long-term growth prospects.

Negative Factors

High Debt Levels

High debt levels can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Profit Decline

A decline in operating profit reflects operational inefficiencies and challenges that could hinder future profitability if not addressed.

Operational Challenges

Operational issues, particularly in WeDriveU, suggest management challenges and could affect the company's ability to maintain service quality and profitability.

Mobico Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mobico Group Plc engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, France, and Portugal. The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments. It owns and leases vehicles. The company also provides student transportation, urban bus, regional/long haul coach, rail, and charter and other services; transit and scheduled coach services; and private hire and commuter coach travel services. In addition, it operates alternative fuel technologies, such as propane, electric, and hydrogen; and offers shuttle services. The company has a fleet of approximately 28,000 vehicles. It provides its services to cities, businesses, and education providers, as well as direct to customers. The company was formerly known as National Express Group PLC and changed its name to Mobico Group Plc in June 2023. Mobico Group Plc was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Mobico Group generates revenue primarily through its diverse range of transport services. Key revenue streams include fare collections from passengers using their bus and coach services, contracts with local governments for public transport services, and partnerships with private organizations for shuttle and charter services. Additionally, MCG may benefit from operational efficiencies and cost management measures that enhance profitability. The company also explores strategic partnerships and collaborations that can lead to additional revenue opportunities, particularly in the context of innovative mobility solutions aimed at urban transport.

Mobico Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mobico Group faces a challenging financial environment. Revenue growth is positive, but profitability metrics are under pressure with consistent net losses and negative margins. The balance sheet shows high leverage and declining equity, while cash flow stability is a concern.

Income Statement

Mobico Group has demonstrated a mixed performance in its income statement. The revenue growth rate has been positive over the recent years, indicating a recovery trajectory. However, the company consistently reports negative net income, leading to negative net profit margins. The gross profit margin has been relatively stable, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are concerning, with EBITDA turning negative in the latest period. This reflects challenges in managing operational costs.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects high leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio that indicates significant reliance on debt financing. The equity ratio has decreased over time, showing declining shareholder equity relative to total assets. Return on equity remains negative due to the recurring net losses. These factors suggest financial stability concerns, although the company maintains a substantial asset base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates some positive movement with operating cash flow improving in recent years. However, free cash flow has been volatile, with a decline in the latest period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not favorable due to persistent net losses. Overall, cash flow management appears challenging, impacting the company's ability to generate sustainable cash reserves.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.41B	3.15B	2.81B	2.17B	1.96B
Gross Profit	1.10B	1.49B	1.54B	1.09B	887.10M
EBITDA	-250.70M	235.20M	82.00M	219.90M	-88.80M
Net Income	-824.10M	-163.80M	-221.80M	-81.60M	-331.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.24B	4.08B	4.15B	4.29B	4.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	244.50M	356.30M	291.80M	496.50M	520.50M
Total Debt	1.47B	1.56B	1.49B	1.60B	1.48B
Total Liabilities	3.02B	3.01B	2.76B	2.84B	2.90B
Stockholders Equity	184.80M	1.04B	1.35B	1.41B	1.44B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	63.40M	88.90M	41.50M	-42.00M	-334.70M
Operating Cash Flow	259.00M	230.00M	221.20M	170.90M	-96.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-190.00M	-103.10M	-180.40M	-197.20M	-255.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-157.00M	-62.50M	-202.90M	-113.50M	388.60M

Mobico Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 30.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:MCG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 30.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 31.00, below the 50-day MA of 33.40, and below the 200-day MA of 49.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:MCG.

Mobico Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KIE	73 Outperform	899.77M	16.63	0.00%	2.58%	4.40%	26.56%
RNWH	72 Outperform	638.79M	14.11	20.14%	2.40%	3.23%	2.00%
GFRD	71 Outperform	490.89M	14.79	27.52%	3.41%	5.78%	-8.32%
FGP	61 Neutral	1.17B	10.10	18.30%	3.02%	7.45%	0.00%
MCG	41 Neutral	£186.89M	―	-184.46%	―	-4.74%	-610.71%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Mobico Group Corporate Events

Mobico Group Reports Revenue Growth and Strategic Moves in H1 2025

Mobico Group PLC reported continued revenue growth for the first half of 2025, driven by strong passenger demand and contract wins, particularly in its ALSA division. Despite challenges in its WeDriveU contracts and a competitive UK market impacting operating profit, the company maintains its full-year profit guidance. The sale of its North America School Bus business has bolstered liquidity and is part of a strategic focus on deleveraging. Mobico is also implementing cost reduction plans and integrating UK Coach operations with ALSA to enhance synergies and efficiencies.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group Completes Sale of North America School Bus Business

Mobico Group has completed the sale of its North America School Bus business to I Squared Capital for an enterprise value of up to $608 million. The transaction, approved by the US Surface Transportation Board, provides Mobico with $364 million in net upfront proceeds, which will be used to reduce the Group’s debt. This sale enhances Mobico’s financial flexibility, allowing the company to focus on its objective to de-leverage while maintaining strong liquidity with no significant debt maturities until 2027. The Group’s FY 25 Adjusted Operating Profit guidance remains unchanged, and the HY 25 results will be published on 9 September 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group PLC Announces Change in Voting Rights Structure

Mobico Group PLC, a UK-based company, has announced a change in its voting rights structure due to an acquisition or disposal of shares by Aberforth Partners LLP, a firm registered in Edinburgh, UK. As of June 24, 2025, Aberforth Partners holds 5.42% of the voting rights in Mobico Group, with no voting rights through financial instruments. This change in shareholding was officially notified to Mobico Group on June 26, 2025, and reflects a significant stake in the company, potentially impacting its governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group Grants Performance Share Award to CFO

Mobico Group PLC announced a performance share award under its 2025 Long-Term Incentive Plan to Brian Egan, the Group Chief Financial Officer. The award involves 2,523,264 ordinary shares and is structured as a nil cost option, with performance conditions aligned to the Directors’ Remuneration Policy. The award’s vesting is contingent on the company’s shareholder return performance over three years relative to the FTSE 250 Index, with discretion retained by the Remuneration Committee to adjust outcomes based on corporate performance and shareholder experience.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group Advances Sale of North America School Bus Business

Mobico Group has announced progress in the sale of its North America School Bus business to I Squared Capital for up to $608 million, with final approval from the US Surface Transportation Board expected in early July 2025. The sale is anticipated to close in July 2025, providing Mobico with significant proceeds to manage debt maturities and maintain strong liquidity. The company also projects its FY 2025 Adjusted Operating Profit, excluding the School Bus contribution, to be between £180 – £195 million.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.

Mobico Group Appoints Brian Egan as New CFO

Mobico Group has announced the appointment of Brian Egan as the new permanent Group Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Helen Cowing who served in an interim capacity. Brian Egan brings over 25 years of CFO experience from international companies, which is expected to strengthen Mobico’s financial operations and enhance its strategic positioning in the shared mobility industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:MCG) stock is a Hold with a £35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mobico Group stock, see the GB:MCG Stock Forecast page.