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Mobico Group
(LSE:MCG)
Select Model
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Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
23.00 p
▼(-3.28% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance, led by negative equity, elevated leverage, and ongoing net losses despite some operating improvement. Technical indicators add a modestly negative bias with soft momentum and the share price below key short-term moving averages. Valuation offers limited support because negative earnings make the P/E less meaningful and no dividend yield is available.
Positive Factors
Contracted Revenue Base
Contracted and concession-based operations can provide recurring revenue visibility and reduce dependence on daily passenger demand. Public-authority relationships and service delivery capabilities may support retention and renewal across multiple transport markets.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Negative Equity
Elevated debt combined with negative equity leaves little balance-sheet protection for creditors or shareholders. It limits financial flexibility, increases sensitivity to operating setbacks, and means management must prioritize debt reduction and equity rebuilding over discretionary investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Contracted Revenue Base
Contracted and concession-based operations can provide recurring revenue visibility and reduce dependence on daily passenger demand. Public-authority relationships and service delivery capabilities may support retention and renewal across multiple transport markets.
Read all positive factors
Mobico Group (MCG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£147.21M
Dividend Yield0.08%
Average Volume (3M)5.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth-19.76%
EPS Growth61.55%
CountryUK
Employees30,800
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.52
Shares Outstanding614,086,360
10 Day Avg. Volume3,897,953
30 Day Avg. Volume5,556,869
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)-0.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.05
P/FCF Ratio-2.35
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£52.50Price Target Upside120.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)£2.85B
Mobico Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mobico Group Plc is a prominent provider of public transportation solutions, operating across a wide international footprint that includes the UK, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, France, and Portugal. Its extensive...
How the Company Makes Money
Mobico primarily makes money by operating passenger transport services under a mix of (1) contracted/outsourced service agreements and (2) passenger-fare (commercial) models. In North America (often referenced by the group as its transit operation...
Mobico Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q5-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but stabilizing picture: clear operational improvement (strong H2, Alsa record performance, contract wins, improved conversion, liquidity and a focused cost program) alongside several substantial legacy and contract-specific challenges (WMATA provision, CARTA losses, German rail provisions, Morocco impairments and legal liabilities). Management emphasizes simplification, cash discipline and derisking of rail contracts; guidance is cautious but indicates a pathway to improved profitability. Given meaningful progress and credible mitigation plans tempered by material outstanding provisions and legal/contract risks, the tone is constructive but cautious.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 6.2% year-on-year to GBP 2.8 billion, driven primarily by strong performance at Alsa.
Negative Updates
WMATA and WeDriveU Onerous Contract
A GBP 52 million onerous contract provision related to the WMATA contract was recorded; legal proceedings to recover losses are expected to take 18–24 months and outcomes are uncertain in timing.
Read all updates
Q5-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth
Revenue increased 6.2% year-on-year to GBP 2.8 billion, driven primarily by strong performance at Alsa.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to an adjusted operating profit of £195–210m for 2026 (excluding any upside from the pending German rail contract revisions expected to be legally binding by 30 June), and reiterated the Simplify for Success targets of £75m of cost savings in 2026 with a £100m annual run‑rate by year‑end; planned CapEx is £120m and the group expects to be in positive net cash in 2026. They expect Alsa to maintain current performance, WeDriveU to continue recovering, UK Bus to be at breakeven (subject to final funding with TfWM), and to utilise c.£8m of the WeDriveU provision in 2026 while the German onerous contract provision remains £133m. Key cash and balance sheet metrics discussed included free cash flow £77.3m (c.£76m excluding school bus), net funds inflow £127m for the period, c.£286m proceeds from the school bus disposal, nearly €900m of cash and undrawn committed facilities, covenant gearing of 2.7x (improved 0.1x), ~94% of debt at fixed rates, and the 15‑month audited results to 31 Mar 2026 due in late June/early July (with a return to a Dec‑year end in 2026).Mobico Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
35
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.74B | 3.41B | 3.15B | 2.81B | 2.17B |
| Gross Profit | 124.10M | 1.10B | 1.49B | 1.09B | 935.30M |
| EBITDA | 316.80M | -250.70M | 235.20M | 82.00M | 215.20M |
| Net Income | -294.30M | -824.10M | -163.80M | -253.60M | -102.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.72B | 3.24B | 4.08B | 4.15B | 4.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 406.80M | 244.50M | 356.30M | 291.80M | 508.40M |
| Total Debt | 1.51B | 1.47B | 1.56B | 1.49B | 1.60B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.93B | 3.02B | 3.01B | 2.76B | 2.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | -256.30M | 184.80M | 1.04B | 1.35B | 1.43B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -59.70M | 63.40M | 88.90M | 41.50M | -42.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 109.60M | 259.00M | 230.00M | 221.20M | 170.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 44.00M | -190.00M | -103.10M | -180.40M | -197.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -81.80M | -157.00M | -62.50M | -202.90M | -113.50M |
Mobico Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | £939.21M | 8.06 | 17.75% | 4.08% | -6.21% | 0.75% | |
73 Outperform | £2.05B | 13.46 | 24.09% | 2.67% | 9.58% | 14.74% | |
68 Neutral | £515.88M | 15.44 | 13.04% | 3.36% | 4.29% | 7.68% | |
66 Neutral | £1.06B | 18.94 | 11.69% | 3.09% | 2.50% | 40.96% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | £1.51B | 37.90 | 34.20% | 4.96% | 24.42% | 103.25% | |
42 Neutral | £147.21M | -0.47 | 160.47% | 0.08% | -19.76% | 61.55% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GB:MCG
Mobico Group
24.12
-8.22
-25.42%
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Mobico Group Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Mobico to Sell West Midlands Bus Operations to Local Authority in Franchising Shake-Up
Neutral
Aug 18, 2026
Mobico Group has agreed in principle to sell the net assets and operations of its West Midlands bus business to the West Midlands Combined Authority for expected upfront residual proceeds of about £24 million, with headline asset value of rou...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mobico Discloses Executive Share Awards and Option Exercises
Neutral
Jul 30, 2026
Mobico Group PLC has disclosed share transactions involving Executive Chair Phil White and Group CFO Brian Egan, linked to their 2025 and 2026 remuneration packages. The executives exercised nil-cost share options, sold part of the vested stock to...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Mobico Group Publishes 2025-26 Annual Report and Sets Date for 2026 AGM
Neutral
Jul 29, 2026
Mobico Group PLC has published its Annual Report for the financial period ended 31 March 2026 alongside the formal notice and proxy form for its 2026 Annual General Meeting. The documents will be accessible via the Financial Conduct Authority̵...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Mobico lifts profit guidance as Alsa and German rail drive growth amid legacy headwinds
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
Mobico Group reported audited results for an extended 15‑month period to 31 March 2026, showing adjusted revenue of £3.42bn, up 5.9% year on year, and adjusted operating profit rising to £231m. Growth was driven primarily by a stro...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mobico sets date for extended-period audited results and investor briefings
Neutral
Jul 24, 2026
Mobico Group said it will publish its audited results for the extended 15‑month period to 31 March 2026 on 29 July 2026, aligning investors with an updated financial reporting timetable. The company will host a presentation for institutional...
Business Operations and Strategy
Mobico Reshapes German Rail Portfolio With Revised North Rhine-Westphalia Contracts
Positive
Jun 19, 2026
Mobico Group has signed revised contracts with five public transport authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia and neighbouring regions, reshaping its German rail operations. The Rhein-Münsterland Express contract, covering lines RE 7 and RB 48, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.