Firstgroup PLC (GB:FGP)
LSE:FGP
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Firstgroup
(LSE:FGP)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
207.00 p
▲(15.26% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:06/19/26
The score is driven mainly by stable-to-improving financial quality led by strong cash flow, tempered by thin/volatile profitability and remaining leverage risk. Technicals are supportive with the price in a clear uptrend, though momentum indicators are stretched. Valuation is a notable positive given the low P/E and solid dividend yield, and the earnings call reinforced growth progress and shareholder returns despite cost and demand headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Consistent operating cash flow and mostly positive free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility. This enables ongoing debt reduction, capital investment in fleet electrification and service quality, and cushions operating volatility, supporting resilience across economic cycles.
Negative Factors
Leverage sensitivity
Although leverage has improved, the capital structure remains sensitive: equity is modest relative to debt and prior peaks were high. Continued reliance on cash generation to meet debt metrics means weaker volumes or higher capex could reintroduce financial strain, limiting strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Consistent operating cash flow and mostly positive free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility. This enables ongoing debt reduction, capital investment in fleet electrification and service quality, and cushions operating volatility, supporting resilience across economic cycles.
Read all positive factors
Firstgroup (FGP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.05B
Dividend Yield3.66%
Average Volume (3M)1.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth-6.21%
EPS Growth0.75%
CountryUK
Employees30,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding562,530,800
10 Day Avg. Volume2,677,627
30 Day Avg. Volume1,602,067
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)129.54
Price to Sales (P/S)19.36
P/FCF Ratio242.87
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£255.00Price Target Upside41.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)£3.94B
Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses and coaches in the United Kin...
How the Company Makes Money
FirstGroup makes money primarily by operating passenger transport services and collecting fares, alongside earning contracted and ancillary revenues tied to running and supporting those services.
Key revenue streams include:
- Passenger fares (bu...
Firstgroup Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 18, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights significant revenue growth, strategic acquisitions, operational efficiencies, and sustainability initiatives. However, these are balanced by challenges in bus volume decline due to economic factors, inflationary pressures, and the costs associated with open access rail expansion. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to maintain a strong financial position and propose a higher dividend.Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Group Adjusted Revenue
Group adjusted revenue increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, driven largely by the acquisition of First Bus London.
Negative Updates
Impact of Economic Factors on Bus Volumes
Total bus volumes down by 4% due to economic factors and the transition to a GBP 3 fare cap.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Increase in Group Adjusted Revenue
Group adjusted revenue increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, driven largely by the acquisition of First Bus London.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During FirstGroup's 2026 Half Year Results Presentation, they reported substantial growth despite economic challenges, with group adjusted revenue increasing by 30% to GBP 834 million, largely due to the acquisition of First Bus London. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 16% to 9.9p, supported by the repurchase of approximately 22 million shares. The Board proposed an interim dividend of 2.2p per share, a 29% increase from the previous year. First Bus achieved a 24% reduction in lost mileage to 1.3% and improved its Net Promoter Score to plus 15. FirstGroup's adjusted operating profit reached GBP 103.6 million, up 2.8%, and adjusted earnings grew by 7.1% to GBP 55.5 million. The company maintained a strong balance sheet, with an adjusted net debt of GBP 207.6 million and a debt cover ratio of 0.95x. Looking ahead, the group expects modest growth in adjusted EPS for the full year 2026 and aims to maintain this level in 2027, with a focus on U.K. growth and diversification strategies.Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.75B | 4.65B | 4.72B | 4.75B | 4.59B |
| Gross Profit | 135.70M | 1.81B | 2.02B | 2.24B | 2.12B |
| EBITDA | 700.80M | 849.80M | 656.20M | 896.70M | 863.60M |
| Net Income | 118.30M | 127.50M | -15.90M | 87.10M | 636.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 3.66B | 3.81B | 4.41B | 3.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 432.00M | 171.40M | 496.50M | 791.40M | 787.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.16B | 1.35B | 1.60B | 2.99B | 1.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.38B | 2.95B | 3.17B | 3.66B | 2.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 710.00M | 696.70M | 633.30M | 740.20M | 876.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 378.70M | 597.80M | 324.00M | 402.30M | -184.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 620.50M | 754.20M | 543.30M | 580.20M | 66.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -191.10M | -150.90M | -10.20M | 73.00M | 2.08B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -453.50M | -641.50M | -776.30M | -640.90M | -2.89B |
Firstgroup Technical Analysis
Positive
179.60
Price Trends
171.05
Positive
175.38
Positive
186.17
Positive
Market Momentum
5.27
Negative
71.60
Negative
78.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 179.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 175.84, above the 50-day MA of 171.05, and below the 200-day MA of 186.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.60 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FGP.
Firstgroup Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | £2.20B | 15.52 | 16.69% | 1.27% | 1.69% | 276.44% | |
74 Outperform | £4.34B | 10.25 | 11.57% | 2.37% | 9.93% | 1.93% | |
70 Outperform | £1.05B | 8.80 | 19.28% | 3.66% | -6.21% | 0.75% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
55 Neutral | £1.28B | 8.37 | 30.56% | ― | 10.71% | -101.29% | |
47 Neutral | £146.48M | -1.77 | 160.47% | ― | -19.76% | 61.69% | |
42 Neutral | £82.01M | -8.86 | -5.70% | 0.90% | 8.64% | -143.74% |
* Industrials Sector Average
GB:FGP
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Firstgroup Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup grants long-term share awards to top executives
Positive
Jun 19, 2026
FirstGroup has granted new conditional share awards to its top executives under its Executive Annual Bonus Plan and Long-Term Incentive Plan, aligning leadership rewards with shareholder interests and longer-term performance. Chief executive Graha...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup launches £100 million share buyback to cut share capital
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
FirstGroup plc has launched an on‑market share buyback programme of up to £100 million, commencing on 19 June 2026 and running no later than 17 June 2027, subject to market conditions. The programme is capped at 84,323,374 shares, or 14...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
FirstGroup boosts revenue, ramps up electrification and launches new buyback
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
FirstGroup reported a 25% rise in adjusted revenue to £1.72bn for the year to 28 March 2026, with adjusted operating profit broadly flat at £219.4m as growth in its bus business offset weaker rail earnings and the impact of contract tran...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO increases stake through Share Incentive Plan purchase
Neutral
Jun 12, 2026
FirstGroup plc disclosed that Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer Ryan Mangold acquired 89 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The shares, purchased at £1.68994 each on 10 June 2026 through the London St...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO acquires shares under company incentive plan
Neutral
May 14, 2026
FirstGroup plc has disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 90 ordinary shares in the company through its Share Incentive Plan. The shares were purchased on 11 May 2026 at £1.6680 each on the L...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Adds Shares Under Company Incentive Plan
Neutral
Apr 14, 2026
FirstGroup plc disclosed that its executive director and chief financial officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 85 ordinary shares in the company through its Share Incentive Plan. The purchase, executed on 10 April 2026 at £1.7560 per share via the ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Maintains Unchanged Balances in Employee Share Schemes
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
FirstGroup plc reported its latest six‑monthly block listing return covering the period from 1 October 2025 to 31 March 2026 for its Long Term Incentive Plan, Share Incentive Plan, and Sharesave Plan. The company confirmed that no additional...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.