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Firstgroup
(LSE:FGP)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
221.00 p
▲(24.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/18/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial stability supported by strong cash generation, alongside attractive valuation (low P/E and a solid dividend yield). Technicals are supportive due to a clear uptrend, but very overbought momentum indicators (high RSI and Stochastics) temper the overall rating due to increased near-term downside risk.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Strong operating cash flow and mostly positive free cash flow since 2024 improve internal funding capacity. This supports debt reduction and reinvestment without relying as heavily on external capital, making the business more resilient when accounting earnings are uneven.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline
Broadly flat revenue and a mid-single-digit TTM decline point to limited recent top-line momentum. Persistent weakness would restrict operating leverage and make it harder to convert the company's transport networks into consistent profit growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Strong operating cash flow and mostly positive free cash flow since 2024 improve internal funding capacity. This supports debt reduction and reinvestment without relying as heavily on external capital, making the business more resilient when accounting earnings are uneven.
Read all positive factors
Firstgroup (FGP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£1.10B
Dividend Yield3.35%
Average Volume (3M)1.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.8
Beta (1Y)0.74
Revenue Growth-6.21%
EPS Growth0.75%
CountryUK
Employees30,513
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding533,752,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,407,379
30 Day Avg. Volume1,742,785
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.00
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio2.43
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)£4.21B
Firstgroup Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
FirstGroup plc provides public transport services in the United Kingdom. It operates through First Bus and First Rail segments. The First Bus segment offers local bus services with a fleet of approximately 5,800 buses and coaches in the United Kin...
How the Company Makes Money
FirstGroup makes money primarily by operating passenger transport services and earning revenue from fares paid by riders on its bus networks. A key revenue stream is passenger ticketing (including single fares and multi-journey or season products,...
Firstgroup Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 18, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights significant revenue growth, strategic acquisitions, operational efficiencies, and sustainability initiatives. However, these are balanced by challenges in bus volume decline due to economic factors, inflationary pressures, and the costs associated with open access rail expansion. Despite these challenges, the company has managed to maintain a strong financial position and propose a higher dividend.Positive Updates
Significant Increase in Group Adjusted Revenue
Group adjusted revenue increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, driven largely by the acquisition of First Bus London.
Negative Updates
Impact of Economic Factors on Bus Volumes
Total bus volumes down by 4% due to economic factors and the transition to a GBP 3 fare cap.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Significant Increase in Group Adjusted Revenue
Group adjusted revenue increased by 30% to GBP 834 million, driven largely by the acquisition of First Bus London.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During FirstGroup's 2026 Half Year Results Presentation, they reported substantial growth despite economic challenges, with group adjusted revenue increasing by 30% to GBP 834 million, largely due to the acquisition of First Bus London. Adjusted earnings per share rose by 16% to 9.9p, supported by the repurchase of approximately 22 million shares. The Board proposed an interim dividend of 2.2p per share, a 29% increase from the previous year. First Bus achieved a 24% reduction in lost mileage to 1.3% and improved its Net Promoter Score to plus 15. FirstGroup's adjusted operating profit reached GBP 103.6 million, up 2.8%, and adjusted earnings grew by 7.1% to GBP 55.5 million. The company maintained a strong balance sheet, with an adjusted net debt of GBP 207.6 million and a debt cover ratio of 0.95x. Looking ahead, the group expects modest growth in adjusted EPS for the full year 2026 and aims to maintain this level in 2027, with a focus on U.K. growth and diversification strategies.Firstgroup Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
73
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.75B | 4.65B | 4.72B | 4.75B | 4.59B |
| Gross Profit | 135.70M | 1.81B | 2.02B | 2.24B | 2.12B |
| EBITDA | 700.80M | 849.80M | 656.30M | 896.70M | 863.60M |
| Net Income | 118.30M | 127.50M | -15.90M | 87.10M | 636.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.10B | 3.66B | 3.81B | 4.41B | 3.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 432.00M | 171.40M | 496.50M | 791.40M | 787.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.16B | 1.35B | 1.60B | 2.99B | 1.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.38B | 2.95B | 3.17B | 3.66B | 2.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 710.00M | 696.70M | 633.30M | 740.20M | 876.60M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 378.70M | 597.80M | 324.00M | 402.30M | -184.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 620.50M | 754.20M | 543.30M | 580.20M | 66.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -191.10M | -150.90M | -10.20M | 73.00M | 2.08B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -453.50M | -641.50M | -776.30M | -640.90M | -2.89B |
Firstgroup Technical Analysis
Positive
178.00
Price Trends
183.06
Positive
181.20
Positive
176.61
Positive
Market Momentum
9.09
Negative
88.98
Negative
99.56
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:FGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 178 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 194.14, below the 50-day MA of 183.06, and above the 200-day MA of 176.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 9.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 88.98 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:FGP.
Firstgroup Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | £5.13B | 12.13 | 11.57% | 1.94% | 9.93% | 1.93% | |
68 Neutral | £1.10B | 9.80 | 17.75% | 3.35% | -6.21% | 0.75% | |
68 Neutral | £2.69B | 18.31 | 17.55% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 221.80% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
55 Neutral | £82.82M | 14.85 | 3.29% | 0.80% | -3.60% | ― | |
52 Neutral | £985.62M | -378.84 | -0.31% | ― | 10.71% | -101.29% | |
47 Neutral | £246.58M | -0.78 | 160.47% | 0.08% | ― | ― |
* Industrials Sector Average
GB:FGP
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Firstgroup Corporate Events
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Acquires Shares Under Incentive Plan
Positive
Oct 16, 2026
FirstGroup plc disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, has acquired 76 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The partnership shares were purchased on 14 October 2026 at £1.975...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
FirstGroup Unlocks £500m in Reserves with Capital Reduction
Positive
Oct 13, 2026
FirstGroup PLC has confirmed that a court-approved reduction of its share premium account became effective on 30 September 2026, following shareholder approval at the July Annual General Meeting. The capital reduction has been formally registered ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Advances £100m Share Buyback With Third Tranche Launch
Positive
Oct 12, 2026
FirstGroup plc has confirmed the completion of the second tranche of its £100m on-market share buyback, with Panmure Liberum purchasing 27,522,679 ordinary shares for a total consideration of £49.8m. These shares are being held in treasu...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Expands Share Buyback, Lifts Treasury Holdings
Positive
Oct 12, 2026
FirstGroup has continued its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing over 1.2 million ordinary shares between 5 and 9 October 2026 via Panmure Liberum. The purchases were made at weighted average prices ranging from about 185p t...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Extends Buyback, Increases Treasury Share Holdings
Positive
Oct 5, 2026
FirstGroup has continued to execute its share buyback programme by repurchasing a total of more than 1.25 million ordinary shares between 28 September and 2 October 2026 at prices around 180 pence. The company initially intends to hold these share...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Disclosure
Neutral
Oct 1, 2026
FirstGroup plc has disclosed updated information on its share capital and voting rights as at 30 September 2026, in line with U.K. regulatory requirements. The company’s capital comprises 570,695,015 ordinary shares, of which 33,323,914 are ...
Business Operations and Strategy
FirstGroup unlocks £17.5m as it completes £90m pension buy-in
Positive
Sep 28, 2026
FirstGroup has completed a buy-in of approximately £90 million of liabilities in its Group Section pension scheme, using around £22 million held in escrow to fund the transaction. Of this, £17.5 million has been returned to the comp...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Expands Treasury Stock with Latest Share Buyback
Positive
Sep 28, 2026
FirstGroup has continued to execute its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing just over 1.7 million ordinary shares between 21 and 25 September 2026 at prices ranging from about 170p to 176p. The company initially intends to h...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
FirstGroup Unlocks £500m in Reserves After Capital Reduction
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
FirstGroup plc has completed a court-approved reduction of its share premium account, following shareholder approval at the July 2026 annual general meeting. The move became effective upon delivery of the court order to the Registrar of Companies ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup Adds to Treasury Stock Under Ongoing Share Buyback Programme
Neutral
Sep 21, 2026
FirstGroup has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing a series of ordinary shares over 14–18 September 2026 through Panmure Liberum. The purchases, at prices around 170 pence per share, reflect the...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividends
FirstGroup Wins Court Approval for £500m Capital Reduction
Positive
Sep 18, 2026
FirstGroup has secured court approval for a reduction of its share premium account, creating £500 million of additional distributable reserves. The move leaves the number and nominal value of ordinary shares unchanged and does not alter the G...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO Adds Shares Under Incentive Plan
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
FirstGroup plc has disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 88 ordinary shares under the company’s Share Incentive Plan. The shares, priced at £1.7015 each, were purchased on 10 September...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Tightens Capital Structure with Ongoing Share Buyback
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
FirstGroup plc has continued to execute its previously announced share buyback programme, purchasing more than 1.7 million ordinary shares between 7 and 11 September 2026 through Panmure Liberum Limited. The trades were conducted at weighted avera...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Updates Market on September Share Buyback Activity
Positive
Sep 7, 2026
FirstGroup plc has continued to execute its share buyback programme announced in June 2026, repurchasing more than 1.5 million ordinary shares between 1 and 4 September through Panmure Liberum at weighted average prices around 175–178 pence....
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Executives Exercise Options Under 2023 SAYE Share Plan
Positive
Sep 2, 2026
FirstGroup has disclosed that Chief Executive Officer Graham Sutherland and Chief Financial Officer Ryan Mangold have each exercised options over 13,621 ordinary shares under the company’s 2023 Save As You Earn share plan. The options mature...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
FirstGroup boosts capital return with latest share buyback tranche
Positive
Sep 1, 2026
FirstGroup has continued its share buyback programme, repurchasing more than 1.6 million ordinary shares between 24 and 28 August 2026 at prices around 178–180 pence, via broker Panmure Liberum. The company initially plans to hold these shar...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
FirstGroup adds 1.65 million shares to treasury under ongoing buyback
Positive
Aug 24, 2026
FirstGroup has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing just over 1.65 million ordinary shares between 17 and 21 August 2026 at prices around 180 pence per share. The shares were acquired via Panmure Liber...
DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup discloses dividend-funded share acquisition by CFO under incentive plan
Neutral
Aug 18, 2026
FirstGroup has disclosed a routine director share transaction under the UK Market Abuse Regulation involving its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold. Through the company’s Share Incentive Plan, 281 ordinary shares we...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup expands share buyback and clarifies voting rights
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
FirstGroup has continued its share buyback programme, repurchasing a total of around 772,000 ordinary shares between 10 and 13 August 2026 at prices in the low 180 pence range, via broker Panmure Liberum. The company plans initially to hold these ...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup CFO acquires shares through company incentive plan
Positive
Aug 13, 2026
FirstGroup plc disclosed that its Executive Director and Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Mangold, acquired 81 ordinary shares in the company through its Share Incentive Plan. The purchase, executed on 10 August 2026 at £1.8471 per share on the ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Updates Market on Progress of Share Buyback Programme
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
FirstGroup has continued its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing several hundred thousand ordinary shares between 3 and 7 August 2026 at prices around 182–185 pence via Panmure Liberum. The company initially plans to h...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Adds to Treasury Stock Under Ongoing Share Buyback Programme
Positive
Aug 3, 2026
FirstGroup plc has continued to execute its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing over 1.29 million ordinary shares between 27 and 31 July 2026 at prices around 180–184 pence. These transactions were carried out through ...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsShareholder Meetings
FirstGroup Shareholders Back Board, Dividend and Capital Actions at 2026 AGM
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
FirstGroup plc operates as a leading UK passenger transport provider, running rail and bus services that support commuter, regional, and urban mobility. Its operations play a significant role in national transport networks, with shareholders close...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
FirstGroup Confirms In‑Line Trading Ahead of Interim Results
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
FirstGroup said trading so far this financial year is in line with guidance given alongside its FY 2026 results and the announced sale of its Mistral Data business, underscoring stable operational momentum. The group highlighted that its UK‑...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Updates Market on Progress of Share Buyback Programme
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
FirstGroup plc has continued executing its previously announced share buyback programme, repurchasing a series of tranches of ordinary shares between 20 and 24 July 2026 through RBC Europe Limited at prices around 177p to 181p per share. Following...
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FirstGroup Expands Share Buyback, Lifts Treasury Holdings
Positive
Jul 20, 2026
FirstGroup plc has continued to execute its share buyback programme announced in June 2026, purchasing more than 2.9 million ordinary shares between 13 and 17 July through RBC Europe Limited at weighted average prices around 177p to 182p. Followin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.