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Greggs plc
(LSE:GRG)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
2,557.00 p
▲(38.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/01/26
Overall score reflects a solid but not flawless setup: fundamentals are supported by consistent revenue growth and strong gross margins, but weakened 2025 profitability and notably softer free-cash-flow generation constrain the financial performance score. Technicals are constructive with a clear uptrend, though overbought indicators add near-term risk. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~15.7) with an attractive ~3.4% yield, and the earnings call added support via strong H1 execution and improving cash dynamics, tempered by a material H2 cost headwind and cautious full-year profit outlook.
Positive Factors
Consistent revenue growth and market share
Greggs has demonstrated a durable top-line trajectory across several years, reinforced by continued H1 growth and higher visit share. This suggests the brand remains relevant in convenience food-to-go and provides a foundation for ongoing scale benefits across its shop estate.
Negative Factors
Margin compression and weaker earnings
Lower margins and declining net income despite revenue growth indicate that cost pressures are absorbing part of Greggs’ operating progress. If this persists, weaker operating leverage could limit earnings growth and reduce the benefit of continued sales expansion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent revenue growth and market share
Greggs has demonstrated a durable top-line trajectory across several years, reinforced by continued H1 growth and higher visit share. This suggests the brand remains relevant in convenience food-to-go and provides a foundation for ongoing scale benefits across its shop estate.
Read all positive factors
Greggs plc (GRG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£2.34B
Dividend Yield3%
Average Volume (3M)546.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.8
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth6.89%
EPS Growth-9.02%
CountryUK
Employees33,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.29
Shares Outstanding102,255,680
10 Day Avg. Volume586,208
30 Day Avg. Volume546,166
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.68
Price to Book (P/B)2.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio23.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£2,010.00Price Target Upside8.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)£2.30B
Greggs plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Greggs Plc is a bakery retailer in the United Kingdom. The firm owns and operates a supply chain, from production through to distribution to point of sale. It operates through the Retail Company Managed Shops and Business to Business segments. The...
How the Company Makes Money
Greggs primarily makes money by selling food and drink directly to consumers, with revenue largely generated at the point of sale across its company-run retail shops. Its key revenue streams include (1) in-shop sales of freshly prepared and baked ...
Greggs plc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 09, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: robust H1 sales (+7.2%), strong PBT growth (+19.7%), improved cash generation (+18.3%) and evidence of better new‑shop returns and multichannel momentum (grocery, franchise trials). The company is transitioning out of a heavy investment phase into stronger free‑cash generation, while continuing supply‑chain and IT deliveries. Key near‑term negatives are a GBP 10m H2 cost hit from Derby, sensitivity to hot weather, modest like‑for‑like growth and some residual inflation risk into 2027. On balance, the positives (growth, cash recovery, brand strength, multi‑channel expansion and disciplined shop ROI) outweigh the headwinds, though management is appropriately cautious on H2 phasing and costs.Positive Updates
Strong top-line growth
Total sales grew 7.2% in H1 FY2026, with company-managed like-for-like sales up 2.1%, and overall market share of visits increased by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7%.
Negative Updates
Second‑half cost headwind from Derby
Derby operating costs are expected to increase by approximately GBP 10 million in H2, a material headwind which contributes to Board guidance that full‑year profit progress will be broadly flat despite strong H1 performance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong top-line growth
Total sales grew 7.2% in H1 FY2026, with company-managed like-for-like sales up 2.1%, and overall market share of visits increased by 0.3 percentage points to 8.7%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was that Greggs delivered a strong H1 with total sales +7.2%, company‑managed like‑for‑like +2.1%, PBT £76m (H1, +19.7% vs 2025), operating cash inflow £111m (up from £94m; operating cash flow +18.3%), diluted EPS 55p (up from 45p) and the interim dividend maintained at 19p, and the Board expects full‑year profit to be broadly flat year‑on‑year as Derby adds ~£10m of operating costs in H2; CapEx guidance has been reduced from c.£200m to £180m (after a £287m peak last year) with net new shop openings of 100–110 (previously 120) plus ~10 Greggs Express trials, plans to refurb >100 shops pa in future, and a target mature shop cash ROI of ~25% after 2–3 years and medium‑term ROCE around 20%; the balance sheet showed net cash c.£16m, an RCF of £100m extended to June 2029, a target year‑end cash buffer of ~3% of turnover (~£70m), H1 savings of ~£7m against a £11m annual target, food & packaging ~33% of cost base with ~70% of H2 requirements fixed, people costs ~39% (wage inflation ~4% pa), energy ~90% covered for the year, and a tax rate guidance of c.26%.Greggs plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.23B | 2.15B | 2.01B | 1.81B | 1.51B | 1.23B |
| Gross Profit | 1.37B | 1.32B | 1.24B | 1.10B | 933.60M | 782.00M |
| EBITDA | 368.60M | 344.30M | 357.50M | 323.60M | 271.30M | 260.40M |
| Net Income | 131.90M | 122.20M | 153.40M | 142.50M | 120.30M | 117.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.48B | 1.48B | 1.32B | 1.13B | 974.40M | 888.40M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 30.90M | 70.80M | 125.30M | 195.30M | 191.60M | 198.60M |
| Total Debt | 469.20M | 474.80M | 415.10M | 319.60M | 301.30M | 283.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 849.90M | 858.80M | 749.20M | 598.80M | 525.60M | 456.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 632.70M | 625.20M | 570.50M | 530.90M | 446.00M | 429.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 186.60M | 73.70M | 70.00M | 112.70M | 149.60M | 231.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 355.20M | 337.00M | 310.90M | 310.80M | 252.90M | 285.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -186.80M | -284.50M | -217.10M | -191.20M | -100.80M | -54.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -156.50M | -107.00M | -163.80M | -115.90M | -159.10M | -69.70M |
Greggs plc Technical Analysis
Positive
1847.00
Price Trends
1965.70
Positive
1821.76
Positive
1692.96
Positive
Market Momentum
109.06
Positive
70.63
Negative
65.81
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1847 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2189.50, below the 50-day MA of 1965.70, and above the 200-day MA of 1692.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 109.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.63 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GRG.
Greggs plc Risk Analysis
Greggs plc disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Greggs plc reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Greggs plc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | £32.96B | 17.73 | 16.45% | 2.77% | 5.41% | 30.44% | |
71 Outperform | £2.34B | 17.84 | 20.97% | 3.00% | 6.89% | -9.02% | |
67 Neutral | £878.46M | 14.83 | -69.64% | 4.95% | 5.72% | -21.86% | |
62 Neutral | £7.37B | 20.43 | 6.39% | 4.04% | -2.65% | 7.32% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | £1.36B | -49.95 | -65.76% | 2.41% | 4.58% | -24.15% | |
57 Neutral | £8.40B | 32.98 | 8.86% | 1.03% | 25.02% | -13.12% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Greggs plc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greggs Posts Strong Q3 Sales as Cost-Saving Manufacturing Shake-Up Looms
Neutral
Sep 30, 2026
Greggs reported continued strong trading in the third quarter of 2026, with total sales up 7.7% and like-for-like sales in company-managed shops rising 3.4%, helped by successful menu innovation and stable summer weather. The group has opened a ne...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greggs Sets Date for Third-Quarter Trading Update
Neutral
Sep 16, 2026
Greggs plc has scheduled the release of its third quarter trading update for Wednesday 30 September 2026, signalling that investors and analysts will soon receive fresh insight into the retailer’s recent performance. The update is expected t...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Greggs Finance Director Exercises Performance Share Options at Nil Cost
Neutral
Aug 10, 2026
Greggs plc disclosed that Finance Director Richard Hutton, a person discharging managerial responsibilities, has acquired 6,504 ordinary shares in the company. The shares were obtained on 7 August 2026 through the exercise of an option under Gregg...
Other
Greggs Finance Director Executes Routine Share Sale to Cover Tax Liabilities
Neutral
Aug 10, 2026
Greggs plc is a U.K.-based food-on-the-go retailer best known for its bakery products, including sandwiches, savouries and sweet goods, sold through a nationwide store network. The company operates in the quick-service food retail industry, target...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Greggs lifts profits and market share as value offer drives growth
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
Greggs reported a strong set of interim results for the 26 weeks to 27 June 2026, with total sales up 7.2% year-on-year to £1.10 billion and operating profit rising nearly 23% to £86.5 million. The bakery and food-to-go chain increased i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.