TipRanks
Go Ultimate55% OFF

Cake Box Holdings (CBOX) AI Stock Analysis

GB:CBOX

Cake Box Holdings

(LSE:CBOX)

Select Model
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:GBX 193.00â–²(13.53% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/01/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (revenue growth and strong gross margins), partially offset by higher leverage and weaker recent cash conversion. Technicals are a notable headwind with the price below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is supportive due to the high dividend yield and moderate P/E.

Positive Factors
Franchise-led operating modelThe franchise-led model can support network expansion with less direct store capital than a company-operated estate, while central production and distribution create control over supplied products. As the estate grows, recurring franchise income and product supply sales can reinforce operating scale.
Negative Factors
Higher leverageThe significant step-up in debt relative to equity reduces financial flexibility compared with the company’s earlier position. Higher leverage can constrain investment and capital allocation choices, while making the business more exposed if trading conditions weaken or operating performance falls short.

Cake Box Holdings (CBOX) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

-20%-10%0%10%20%30%GB:CBOX-15.71%EWC+21.27%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
GBP 74.80M
Dividend Yield
6.35%
Average Volume (3M)
63.40K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
14.3
Beta (1Y)
0.44
Revenue Growth
39.53%
EPS Growth
8.81%
Country
UK
Employees
377
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Sector Strength
62
Industry
Food Confectioners

Cake Box Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cake Box Holdings Plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the retail of fresh cream celebration cakes in the United Kingdom. The company sells cakes, cupcakes, cheesecakes, and treats; and party accessories, including balloons and candles. It...

How the Company Makes Money

Cake Box makes money primarily through a franchise-led model. Its key revenue streams typically include: (1) Franchise income: fees and ongoing charges paid by franchisees for the right to operate under the Cake Box brand (e.g., initial franchise fee...

Cake Box Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Good overall financial quality: steady revenue growth (about +13% in 2026) and strong gross margin (~54%). Offsets include higher leverage since 2024 (debt-to-equity up to ~0.69 in 2026) and weaker recent cash conversion (operating cash flow below net income in 2025–2026), despite a strong rebound in 2026 free cash flow (+~63%).

Income Statement

74Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

66Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMMar 2026Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue59.69M59.69M42.78M37.84M34.80M32.96M
Gross Profit32.05M32.05M22.46M19.61M16.04M14.85M
EBITDA12.48M12.56M7.76M7.72M6.66M8.80M
Net Income5.22M5.22M4.37M4.66M4.24M6.31M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets64.07M64.07M61.24M30.74M27.82M25.90M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.45M2.45M6.33M8.45M7.35M6.57M
Total Debt19.42M19.42M21.50M3.57M3.94M4.31M
Total Liabilities36.08M36.08M34.25M11.44M10.08M9.12M
Stockholders Equity27.99M27.99M26.99M19.30M17.74M16.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.09M7.09M3.53M4.93M4.19M4.08M
Operating Cash Flow9.35M9.35M6.60M6.28M6.15M5.21M
Investing Cash Flow-5.89M-5.89M-25.15M-1.14M-1.90M-1.12M
Financing Cash Flow-7.34M-7.34M16.42M-4.03M-3.47M-2.65M

Cake Box Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price170.00

Price Trends

50DMA183.09Negative
100DMA188.35Negative
200DMA188.70Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-2.49Negative
RSI36.82Neutral
STOCH33.33Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:CBOX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 170.00 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 175.20, below the 50-day MA of 183.09, and below the 200-day MA of 188.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:CBOX.

Cake Box Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

GB:CBOX against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
GB:GRGGB:GRG78OutperformGBP 2.34B17.8420.97%3.00%6.89%-9.02%
GB:TSCOGB:TSCO71OutperformGBP 33.46B18.0016.45%2.73%5.41%30.44%
GB:PFDGB:PFD69NeutralGBP 1.75B13.239.74%1.65%2.31%9.04%
GB:SBRYGB:SBRY69NeutralGBP 7.52B20.866.39%7.15%-2.65%7.32%
GB:OCDOGB:OCDO63NeutralGBP 2.70B-10.76-15.94%―――
GB:CBOXGB:CBOX63NeutralGBP 74.80M14.3319.38%6.35%39.53%8.81%
Sector *62Neutral$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%

* Consumer Defensive Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%40%60%GB:CBOXGB:OCDOGB:GRGGB:PFDGB:SBRYGB:TSCODec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
GB:CBOX and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
GB:CBOXCake Box Holdings Plc170.00-31.70-15.71%
GB:OCDOOcado Group plc 322.20112.8053.87%
GB:GRGGreggs plc2302.00779.3951.19%
GB:PFDPremier Foods203.2024.3713.62%
GB:SBRYJ Sainsbury (GB)345.4034.7811.20%
GB:TSCOTesco plc540.0099.7922.67%

Cake Box Holdings Corporate Events

Other

Cake Box CEO Increases Stake With Fresh Share Purchase

Positive
Sep 29, 2026

Cake Box Holdings plc has disclosed that Chief Executive Officer Sukh Chamdal purchased 10,000 ordinary shares at 185 pence each on 28 September 2026. Following this transaction, Chamdal now holds 10,303,470 shares, representing about 23.42% of the c...

Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings

Cake Box Secures Strong Shareholder Backing at AGM

Positive
Sep 2, 2026

Cake Box Holdings plc, the UK’s largest retailer of fresh cream celebration cakes, operates a predominantly franchised store network offering personalised, egg-free cakes tailored to birthdays, weddings and other celebrations. Its focus on conv...

Other

Cake Box CEO boosts stake with fresh share purchase

Positive
Aug 24, 2026

Cake Box Holdings said chief executive Sukh Chamdal has increased his stake in the company with the purchase of 10,000 ordinary shares at 189 pence each on 21 August 2026. Following the transaction, Chamdal now holds 10,293,470 shares, giving him an...

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings

Cake Box Publishes Annual Report and Sets Date for AGM

Positive
Aug 5, 2026

Cake Box Holdings has published its annual report and accounts for the 52 weeks ended 29 March 2026, and circulated the notice of its upcoming annual general meeting to shareholders via post and its investor website. The AGM will take place on 2 Sept...

Other

Cake Box CEO Boosts Stake with Fresh Share Purchase

Positive
Jul 1, 2026

Cake Box Holdings plc has disclosed that Chief Executive Officer Sukh Chamdal purchased 15,000 ordinary shares on 1 July 2026 at 201.5 pence per share on AIM, signalling increased personal investment in the business. Following this transaction, Chamd...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 01, 2026