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Tesco plc (TSCO) AI Stock Analysis
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Tesco plc
(LSE:TSCO)
The score is driven primarily by above-average financial performance (improving earnings and cash generation) and a strong, guidance-supported earnings call with evidence of market-share gains and ongoing efficiency delivery. The main offsets are leverage and thin industry margins, while technicals and valuation are broadly neutral-to-supportive rather than standout.
Tesco plc (TSCO) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- GBP 33.52B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.73%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 15.01M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 18.0
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.68
- Revenue Growth
- 5.41%
- EPS Growth
- 30.44%
- Country
- UK
- Employees
- 340,000
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Sector Strength
- 62
- Industry
- Grocery Stores
Tesco plc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tesco PLC, encompassing its various subsidiaries, is a major player in both consumer retail and banking sectors. The company delivers a wide assortment of food items to customers via a vast network of approximately 4,752 physical stores situated in t...
How the Company Makes Money
Tesco makes money primarily by selling products to consumers through its retail network and online channels. Its main revenue stream is retail sales of groceries (fresh, ambient, and frozen foods) and everyday essentials, generated from high-frequenc...
Tesco plc Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, supported by record customer satisfaction, broad-based profit, EPS and cash growth, market-share gains, rapid-delivery momentum, ongoing cost savings, and increased investment and shareholder returns. The main cautions were moderated U.K. like-for-like growth, declining convenience sales driven by tobacco, a higher promotional rate, intense competition, and uncertainty around the second half, inflation, AI, and rapid-delivery capacity.
Q2-2027 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
The company expects group adjusted operating profits of between GBP 3.15 billion and GBP 3.3 billion for the full year, narrowing to the upper half of our previous range; free cash flow is expected to be within the medium-term guidance range of GBP 1.5 billion-GBP 2 billion; capital expenditure is expected to be around GBP 1.7 billion this year, up from our previous guidance of around GBP 1.6 billion and around GBP 200 million higher than last year; Save to Invest is on track to deliver its GBP 500 million target for the full year; Whoosh is on track to deliver sales in excess of half a billion pounds this year; Finest full-year sales are expected to be well over GBP 3 billion; and the framework remains modest top-line growth, 5%+ operating profit growth, and double-digit EPS growth.
Tesco plc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Steady revenue growth and improving profitability into 2026, supported by stronger recent operating and free cash flow. Offsetting factors are structurally thin retail margins and a meaningful leverage profile, which reduce flexibility if costs rise or competition intensifies.
Income Statement
72PositiveBalance Sheet
63PositiveCash Flow
74Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 75.03B | 73.71B | 69.92B | 68.19B | 65.76B | 61.34B |
| Gross Profit | 5.67B | 5.55B | 5.36B | 4.85B | 4.68B | 4.69B |
| EBITDA | 5.18B | 5.01B | 4.78B | 4.83B | 3.22B | 4.39B |
| Net Income | 1.90B | 1.79B | 1.63B | 1.19B | 737.00M | 1.48B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 40.33B | 39.47B | 38.89B | 47.04B | 46.13B | 49.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.44B | 4.16B | 4.63B | 4.67B | 4.45B | 4.65B |
| Total Debt | 14.77B | 15.08B | 14.67B | 14.84B | 15.08B | 15.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 28.74B | 28.02B | 27.23B | 35.37B | 33.90B | 33.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.60B | 11.46B | 11.67B | 11.67B | 12.24B | 15.66B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.15B | 2.80B | 1.68B | 2.45B | 2.56B | 2.61B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.56B | 4.14B | 2.92B | 3.84B | 3.81B | 3.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.20B | -943.00M | -441.00M | -1.70B | -790.00M | -1.77B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.13B | -3.09B | -2.94B | -1.86B | -3.19B | -2.23B |
Tesco plc Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:TSCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 540.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 518.82, above the 50-day MA of 487.45, and above the 200-day MA of 464.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 15.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 70.24 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:TSCO.
Tesco plc Risk Analysis
Tesco plc disclosed 15 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesco plc reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
1 New RiskTesco plc Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
GB:GRG78Outperform- GB:TSCO71.3Outperform
GB:SBRY69Neutral
GB:ABF66Neutral
GB:OCDO63Neutral
GB:BME55Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:GRG | 78Outperform | GBP 2.34B | 17.84 | 20.97% | 3.00% | 6.89% | -9.02% |
| GB:TSCO | 71Outperform | GBP 33.46B | 18.00 | 16.45% | 2.73% | 5.41% | 30.44% |
| GB:SBRY | 69Neutral | GBP 7.52B | 20.86 | 6.39% | 7.15% | -2.65% | 7.32% |
| GB:ABF | 66Neutral | GBP 13.44B | 14.35 | 8.44% | 3.28% | -2.16% | -24.87% |
| GB:OCDO | 63Neutral | GBP 2.70B | -10.76 | -15.94% | ― | ― | ― |
| Sector * | 62Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
| GB:BME | 55Neutral | GBP 2.77B | 16.92 | 21.74% | 3.49% | 3.66% | -48.66% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:TSCO | Tesco plc | 540.00 | 99.79 | 22.67% | |
| GB:OCDO | Ocado Group plc | 322.20 | 112.80 | 53.87% | |
| GB:ABF | Associated British Foods Plc (UK) | 1922.50 | -287.54 | -13.01% | |
| GB:BME | B&M European Value Retail SA | 275.40 | 112.65 | 69.22% | |
| GB:GRG | Greggs plc | 2302.00 | 779.39 | 51.19% | |
| GB:SBRY | J Sainsbury (GB) | 345.40 | 34.78 | 11.20% |
Tesco plc Corporate Events
Tesco strengthens board with appointment of seasoned non-executive Wendy Becker
PositiveTesco plc has appointed Wendy Becker as a non-executive director, effective 1 November 2026, adding her to its Remuneration Committee and Nominations and Governance Committee. The move brings extensive board-level and executive experience from global...
Tesco lifts profit, cash flow and buybacks as record customer satisfaction boosts growth
PositiveTesco reported a solid first half for 2026/27, with sales excluding VAT and fuel up 1.6% at constant rates to £33.8bn and adjusted operating profit up 6.3% to £1.78bn, supported by improved sales mix, cost savings and newer income streams....
Tesco Executives Acquire Shares Under Routine Incentive Plan
PositiveTesco PLC disclosed that trustees of its Share Incentive Plan purchased small quantities of ordinary shares on 25 September 2026 on behalf of several senior executives, including Group Chief Executive Ken Murphy and Chief Technology Officer Guus Dekk...
Tesco executives acquire shares through incentive plan
PositiveTesco has disclosed that trustees of its Share Incentive Plan purchased small amounts of ordinary shares on 28 August for several senior executives, including chief executive Ken Murphy and other top managers, at a price of about £4.56 per share...
Tesco CEO Ken Murphy Exercises Options and Retains Shares Under Savings Scheme
NeutralTesco PLC has disclosed that Group Chief Executive Officer Ken Murphy exercised options over 9,890 ordinary shares under the company’s Savings-Related Share Option Scheme at a price of 182 pence per share. Following the option exercise, Murphy...
Tesco Chair Gerry Murphy Buys £44,845 in Company Shares
PositiveTesco PLC disclosed that its chair, Gerry Murphy, has purchased 10,000 ordinary shares in the company on 17 August 2026 at a price of £4.4845 per share on the London Stock Exchange main market. The transaction, worth £44,845, was reported a...
Tesco discloses £1.53m share sale by senior executive
NeutralTesco PLC has disclosed that Christine Heffernan, its Chief Communications and Sustainability Officer, sold 317,000 ordinary shares in the company on 5 August 2026 at a price of £4.817 per share. The transaction, executed on the London Stock Exc...
Tesco executives receive shares under routine incentive plan
NeutralTesco has disclosed a routine purchase of ordinary shares for several senior executives under its Share Incentive Plan’s Partnership Share Scheme. On 31 July 2026, the plan’s trustees bought small amounts of Tesco stock on the London Stoc...
Tesco Confirms Share Capital and Voting Rights for Transparency Reporting
NeutralTesco has confirmed that, as of 31 July 2026, its issued share capital comprises 6,265,124,955 ordinary shares, each carrying one vote at general meetings, with no shares held in treasury. The company emphasised that this share count should be used b...
Tesco Advances £750m Buyback with New Share Purchase
PositiveTesco plc has continued its £750 million share buyback programme, purchasing 605,430 ordinary shares on 31 July 2026 at an average price of 489.14p, with Banco Santander acting as broker. Following this latest transaction, Tesco’s share co...
Tesco Advances £750m Share Buyback, Cancels Over 119m Shares
PositiveTesco PLC has continued its £750 million share buyback programme, purchasing 750,000 ordinary shares on 30 July 2026 at an average price of 496.20 pence, with Banco Santander acting as broker. These shares are being cancelled, leaving 6,265,730,...
Tesco Advances £750m Share Buyback, Cutting Share Count Further
PositiveTesco plc has continued executing its £750 million share buyback programme, purchasing 500,000 ordinary shares on 29 July 2026 at an average price of 491.44 pence, with Banco Santander acting as broker. This latest transaction forms part of a br...
Tesco Advances £750m Buyback, Cuts Share Count Further
PositiveTesco plc has continued executing its £750 million share buyback programme, purchasing 1,000,000 ordinary shares on 28 July 2026 at an average price of 491.22 pence per share through Banco Santander. This latest transaction forms part of a broad...
Tesco Advances £750m Buyback, Cuts Share Count by Over 117m
PositiveTesco plc has continued executing its £750 million share buyback programme, repurchasing 557,656 ordinary shares on 27 July 2026 at an average price of 481.70p, with the shares to be cancelled. This latest transaction leaves 6,267,980,385 ordina...
Tesco Executives Disclose Sales of Ordinary Shares
NeutralTesco PLC has disclosed that two senior executives, Geoff Byrne, CEO for Ireland and Northern Ireland, and Andrew Yaxley, CEO of Booker, have sold portions of their holdings in the company. Byrne disposed of 60,000 ordinary shares at £4.702 per...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 08, 2026