Greggs plc (GRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £1.58B
• Dividend Yield: 3.6%
• Average Volume (3M): 528.18K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: 8.06%
• EPS Growth: 5.15%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 33,146
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 102,255,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 475,120
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 528,185
• PEG Ratio: 2.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 40.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,090.22
• Price Target Upside: 34.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: 1,766.00p ▲(13.57% Upside)

Greggs plc demonstrates strong financial performance with solid profitability and a stable balance sheet, which are the most significant factors in its overall score. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, which slightly offsets the positive financials. The valuation suggests potential undervaluation, adding to the attractiveness of the stock. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events means these factors do not influence the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term expansion and competitiveness.

Profitability Margins

Improved profitability margins reflect effective cost management and operational efficiency, enhancing the company's financial stability and shareholder value.

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation supports ongoing operations and growth initiatives, providing financial flexibility and resilience against market fluctuations.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow can limit the company's ability to invest in new projects, pay dividends, or reduce debt, potentially impacting future growth.

Debt Levels

While moderate, the existing debt levels require careful management to avoid financial strain, especially if revenue growth slows or interest rates rise.

Free Cash Flow Constraints

Constraints in free cash flow may limit the company's ability to fund strategic initiatives or respond to market opportunities, affecting long-term growth potential.

Greggs plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh and frozen bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks. The company sells products to franchise and wholesale partners for sale in their own outlets. It is also involved in the property holding, non-trading, and trustee businesses. The company operates approximately 2,200 shops and 375 franchise locations. Greggs plc was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Money

Greggs generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products in company-operated shops and franchise locations. The company has a diverse product range, including savoury items like sausage rolls and steak bakes, sweet items such as pastries and cakes, and a selection of beverages. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, online orders, and delivery services. Greggs has also expanded its reach through partnerships with delivery platforms, enhancing its accessibility. Seasonal promotions and limited-time offerings contribute to customer interest and revenue fluctuations. Additionally, the company has implemented a successful loyalty program that encourages repeat purchases, further supporting its revenue growth.

Greggs plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greggs plc exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with moderate leverage. Although the free cash flow has declined, the company's operational cash generation remains strong, supporting its growth initiatives.

Income Statement

Greggs plc has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 11.33% increase in 2024 over the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 61.73%, indicating strong operational efficiency. The net profit margin for 2024 stands at 7.61%, with EBIT and EBITDA margins at 10.39% and 14.19%, respectively. These figures reflect healthy profitability and effective cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.73, showing moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 26.89%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds to generate returns. The equity ratio is 43.23%, suggesting a balanced capital structure with a stable financial foundation.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow decreased by 28.21% in 2024, reflecting higher capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.03, showcasing robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, indicating some constraints in cash available after investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.08B	2.01B	1.81B	1.51B	1.23B	811.30M
Gross Profit	1.28B	1.24B	1.10B	933.60M	782.00M	511.70M
EBITDA	286.10M	357.50M	323.60M	271.30M	260.40M	106.40M
Net Income	144.80M	153.40M	142.50M	120.30M	117.50M	-13.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.34B	1.32B	1.13B	974.40M	888.40M	729.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	32.50M	125.30M	195.30M	191.60M	198.60M	36.80M
Total Debt	451.40M	415.10M	319.60M	301.30M	283.20M	291.70M
Total Liabilities	773.20M	749.20M	598.80M	525.60M	456.00M	404.40M
Stockholders Equity	569.00M	570.50M	530.90M	446.00M	429.20M	321.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.80M	70.00M	112.70M	149.60M	231.20M	-17.40M
Operating Cash Flow	289.70M	310.90M	310.80M	252.90M	285.50M	44.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-308.10M	-217.10M	-191.20M	-100.80M	-54.00M	-59.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-95.40M	-163.80M	-115.90M	-159.10M	-69.70M	-38.90M

Greggs plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1555.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1555 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1583.83, below the 50-day MA of 1608.64, and below the 200-day MA of 1912.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -12.38 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:GRG.

Greggs plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MER	74 Outperform	264.64M	5.50	25.27%	5.32%	-2.79%	37.33%
GRG	71 Outperform	£1.58B	11.02	27.24%	3.60%	8.06%	5.15%
GLE	68 Neutral	221.83M	14.02	0.00%	2.16%	5.93%	-18.26%
CBOX	68 Neutral	86.90M	18.12	16.20%	5.16%	13.04%	-6.44%
JDW	64 Neutral	738.04M	13.27	0.00%	2.16%	3.70%	57.10%
DOM	59 Neutral	755.89M	9.89	-109.73%	5.65%	-0.67%	2.43%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Greggs plc Corporate Events

Greggs Delays Board Appointment Amid WHSmith Review

Greggs plc announced a delay in the appointment of Robert Moorhead to its Board, following a review by Deloitte concerning WHSmith plc. In the meantime, Kate Ferry will continue her role as a Non-Executive Director and chair the Audit Committee, ensuring stability in the company’s governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £21.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs Appoints New Non-Executive Director and Audit Chair

Greggs plc has announced the appointment of Robert Moorhead as an independent Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Audit Committee, effective from October 1, 2025. This follows the retirement of Kate Ferry, who has significantly contributed to the company, especially in advising on financing during the pandemic. Moorhead’s extensive experience in financial management and retail, gained from his previous roles at WH Smith plc and Watches of Switzerland Group plc, is expected to benefit Greggs’ strategic direction and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs Reports Sales Growth Amid Strategic Expansion and Innovation

Greggs plc reported a 7% increase in total sales for the first half of 2025, despite facing challenges such as reduced market footfall and weather disruptions. The company is focusing on strategic expansion and innovation, including new shop openings and menu developments, to enhance convenience and meet changing customer preferences. Greggs is also investing in supply chain infrastructure to support future growth, with plans to open more shops and expand its frozen ‘Bake at Home’ range through a partnership with Tesco.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.