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Burford Capital (BUR) AI Stock Analysis
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Burford Capital
(LSE:BUR)
The score is driven primarily by uneven financial quality (notably volatile and recently negative cash flow, plus rising leverage) and weak technicals with the stock trading below key moving averages. These are partially offset by a reasonable valuation and an earnings call that emphasized strong liquidity and a sizeable pipeline of modeled future cash realizations despite notable noncash and accounting-related headwinds.
Burford Capital (BUR) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- GBP 570.95M
- Dividend Yield
- 3.63%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 250.30K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -42.5
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.95
- Revenue Growth
- -328.60%
- EPS Growth
- -777.95%
- Country
- UK
- Employees
- 172
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Asset Management
Burford Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Burford Capital Limited provides legal finance products and services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Principal Finance, and Asset Management and Other Services. The Principal Finance segment provides capital against the underlying va...
How the Company Makes Money
Burford makes money primarily by investing capital into legal matters and earning returns that are typically contingent on case outcomes. Its core revenue streams include: (1) Litigation/arbitration finance (principal business): Burford funds some or...
Burford Capital Earnings Call Summary
The call emphasized a strong, large and diversified core litigation finance business with healthy liquidity, robust new business momentum and substantial modeled future cash realizations. Key metrics included $740 million in cash and marketable securities, $133 million of Q1 new commitments (up 25% vs. recent Q1 average), $1.3 billion of unfunded definitive commitments, and more than $3.8 billion of cumulative realizations. Major negatives centered on the significant noncash YPF appellate loss and related accounting write-down, several one-off charges (including a $19 million case-related expense recognition and FX impact tied to redemption), and fair-value accounting and discount-rate headwinds that compressed reported capital provision income. Management presented a clear plan to focus the narrative on the core portfolio, harvest cash, manage expenses and delever over time while remaining comfortable with current leverage. Given the breadth and strength of operational highlights and cash-related metrics relative to the primarily noncash and manageable lowlights, the overall tone is constructive.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized strong liquidity and a cash-first view: visibility to >$280M of cash so far in 2026 and $740M of cash & marketable securities at quarter end (after a $500M debt raise in January). Q1 new definitive commitments were $133M with $108M deployed, $1.3B of unfunded definitive commitments and $600M+ of discretionary capacity; the firm reports 237 active assets (≈900 cases) and models >$5B of realizations with a modeled ROIC of ~110% (historical ROIC ~82%), cumulative realizations of $3.8B (>$6B group-wide), and Q1 realizations of $97M from 25 assets. Portfolio metrics: 35% vintage 2015–2019, concluded weighted‑average life 2.6 years (up from 2.3), active deployed capital life 3.4 years, 36 trials/merit hearings scheduled in 2026, and ~23 assets with potential to generate $10M+ in 2026. Balance‑sheet and leverage: net debt ~$1.7B, debt/equity ~1.35x (incurrence covenant 2.0x), debt WAL 5.5 years vs concluded assets WAL 2.6 years; ratings Ba1 (Moody’s) and BB (S&P). They reiterated intent to delever over time, noted a noncash YPF write‑down despite >$100M cash profit, a $19M case‑cost charge, and a ~50bp discount‑rate headwind to capital provision income.
Burford Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Reported profitability remains solid but has cooled materially versus 2023, leverage has trended higher, and cash generation is highly inconsistent with negative operating/free cash flow in 2025—raising funding and execution risk despite a reasonably capitalized equity base.
Income Statement
58NeutralBalance Sheet
64PositiveCash Flow
38Negative| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | -1.55B | 339.85M | 472.25M | 1.08B | 270.62M | 108.12M |
| Gross Profit | 105.64M | 193.77M | 341.23M | 1.06B | 195.62M | 51.67M |
| EBITDA | 1.53B | 84.03M | 253.59M | 821.19M | 113.38M | 5.98M |
| Net Income | -1.65B | 62.57M | 146.48M | 610.52M | 30.51M | -28.75M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.27B | 6.64B | 6.18B | 5.84B | 4.29B | 3.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 747.26M | 655.92M | 469.93M | 220.55M | 107.66M | 180.25M |
| Total Debt | 2.42B | 2.15B | 1.78B | 1.55B | 1.27B | 1.03B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.80B | 3.51B | 2.92B | 2.63B | 1.90B | 1.63B |
| Stockholders Equity | 819.06M | 2.45B | 2.42B | 2.29B | 1.74B | 1.70B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -104.86M | -29.30M | 216.06M | -277.89M | -466.51M | -585.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -104.70M | -29.01M | 216.72M | -274.68M | -466.10M | -585.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.37M | -8.80M | -661.00K | -3.21M | -407.00K | -285.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 552.63M | 132.41M | 33.83M | 389.53M | 399.13M | 444.83M |
Burford Capital Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 260.00 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 251.60, below the 50-day MA of 285.10, and below the 200-day MA of 395.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -9.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.42 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GB:BUR.
Burford Capital Risk Analysis
Burford Capital disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Burford Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksBurford Capital Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
GB:ICG79Outperform
GB:III78Outperform
GB:CLDN75Outperform
GB:POLN73Outperform
GB:BPT66Neutral- GB:BUR55Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:ICG | 79Outperform | GBP 5.31B | 11.11 | 18.00% | 4.69% | 6.46% | 6.47% |
| GB:III | 78Outperform | GBP 24.82B | 4.56 | 17.91% | 3.45% | -25.49% | 3.34% |
| GB:CLDN | 75Outperform | GBP 1.90B | 14.72 | 4.51% | 2.04% | 68.95% | 109.67% |
| GB:POLN | 73Outperform | GBP 540.06M | 11.30 | 8.17% | 6.50% | -5.11% | -7.96% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| GB:BPT | 66Neutral | GBP 3.72B | 127.10 | 2.71% | 3.52% | 36.24% | -53.64% |
| GB:BUR | 55Neutral | GBP 557.31M | -42.50 | -99.46% | 3.63% | -328.60% | -777.95% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB:BUR | Burford Capital | 260.00 | -474.99 | -64.63% | |
| GB:III | 3i Group plc | 2448.00 | -1797.33 | -42.34% | |
| GB:ICG | ICG plc | 1855.00 | 5.80 | 0.31% | |
| GB:CLDN | Caledonia Investments Plc | 376.50 | 2.20 | 0.59% | |
| GB:BPT | Bridgepoint Group Plc | 411.80 | 120.92 | 41.57% | |
| GB:POLN | Pollen Street Group Limited | 915.00 | 90.09 | 10.92% |
Burford Capital Corporate Events
Burford Capital sets August 6 release and investor call for 2Q26 results
NeutralBurford Capital has scheduled the release of its financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, for August 6, 2026, with the figures to be published before US markets open. The company will host a follow-up conference call and we...
Burford Capital Highlights High-Risk Windfall Potential in Cameroon Mining Arbitration
PositiveBurford Capital has disclosed that an ICC arbitration tribunal has issued an award exceeding US$600 million in favor of one of its counterparties in a Cameroon mining dispute. If fully paid today, Burford estimates its entitlement would be more than...
Burford Capital COO Reports Small Share Acquisition via Dividend Reinvestment
NeutralBurford Capital disclosed that Chief Operating Officer Travis Lenkner acquired 376 ordinary shares on June 12, 2026, via an automatic dividend reinvestment feature in his personal brokerage account, which has since been disabled. The routine notifica...
Burford Capital Issues New Shares to Satisfy LTIP Awards
NeutralBurford Capital has issued 1,823 new ordinary shares to satisfy the vesting of restricted share units under its 2016 Long Term Incentive Plan, following the realization of awards at the end of June. The new shares are expected to be admitted to tradi...
Burford Capital Issues New Shares for Director Compensation, Updates Voting Rights
NeutralBurford Capital has issued 95,212 new ordinary shares to compensate its non-employee directors for their board services in 2026 under its 2021 Non-Employee Directors’ Share Plan. These new shares will be admitted to trading on AIM in London and...
Burford Capital issues new shares for director and deferred compensation awards
NeutralBurford Capital has granted ordinary shares to its non-employee directors for their 2026 board service under its directors’ share plan, increasing individual potential shareholdings and further aligning board compensation with shareholder inter...
Burford Capital Sets Sterling Rate for 2025 Final Dividend
PositiveBurford Capital has set the pound sterling conversion rate for its 2025 final dividend of 6.25 US cents per ordinary share, which will be paid on June 12, 2026 to shareholders of record on May 22, 2026. Investors choosing payment in sterling will rec...
Burford Capital Schedules Retail Investor Webcast to Discuss Financial Results
PositiveBurford Capital plans to host an audio webcast for retail shareholders on June 18, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. EDT / 3:00 p.m. BST, where CEO Christopher Bogart and CFO Jordan Licht will discuss the firm’s financial results and other disclosures. Retai...
Burford Capital Shareholders Back All AGM Resolutions, Approve Dividend and Capital Powers
PositiveBurford Capital said shareholders approved all resolutions at its 2026 annual general meeting, endorsing the election of new director Rick Noel and re-election of the existing board, with about 70% of outstanding shares represented. Investors also ba...
Burford Capital Highlights Strong Liquidity Despite YPF-Related Charge in 1Q26
NeutralBurford Capital reported unaudited first-quarter 2026 results, highlighting a multi-billion-dollar portfolio of litigation assets that continues to generate substantial cash returns. Management stressed the robustness of the business, noting more tha...
Burford Capital Sets May 8 Date for First-Quarter 2026 Results and Investor Call
NeutralBurford Capital plans to release its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 on May 8, 2026, with a detailed results presentation to be posted on its investor website ahead of the announcement. The firm will host a same-day confe...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Jun 01, 2026