Want to see GB:BUR full AI Analyst Report?
Burford Capital (BUR) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q2, 2026
Risk Change Over Time
- Accounting & Financial Operations - Risk 1We report our capital provision assets at fair value, which may result in us recognizing non-cash income that may never be realized.
Our capital provision assets are classified as financial instruments and are accounted for at fair value in the consolidated statements of operations in accordance with US GAAP. See note 2 (Summary of significant accounting policies-Fair value of financial instruments), note 5 (Capital provision assets) and note 14 (Fair value of assets and liabilities) to our audited consolidated financial statements contained in the 2025 Form 10-K and "Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations-Results of operations and financial condition-Fair value of capital provision assets" for additional information with respect to our valuation policy and fair value of our capital provision assets. In addition to using a discounted cash flow model that can be sensitive to changes in interest rates, duration and other traditional valuation factors, the valuation policy assigns an updated risk adjustment in prescribed percentages to the forecasted cash inflows based on the type of case (e.g., commercial litigation or patent), geography and case milestone. As a result, when there is an objective event in the underlying litigation that would cause a change in fair value, we reflect the positive or negative impact of such objective event through a fair value adjustment. Due to the illiquid nature of our capital provision assets, there is inherent valuation uncertainty in the assessment of fair value, and our valuation methodologies require us to make significant and complex judgments about legal and other matters that are intrinsically difficult to predict. As such, there is a risk that a case underlying one of our capital provision assets could experience a negative event even after a positive event that had previously resulted in a fair value adjustment in accordance with our valuation policy. This later event, in turn, could lower the value of such capital provision asset in our consolidated statements of financial condition and negatively impact related fair value adjustments recognized in our consolidated statements of operations in future periods. Previously, certain of our individual assets represented a significant portion of the fair value of our capital provision assets. As of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, one set of exposures to the YPF-related assets accounted for approximately 46% and 42% of the fair value of our capital provision assets. The fair value of the YPF-related assets (both Petersen and Eton Park combined) on our consolidated statements of financial condition was $2.6 billion and $2.2 billion as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, with unrealized gains of $2.4 billion and $2.1 billion as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. As a result of the YPF Judgment Reversal in March 2026, and consistent with our valuation policy, we recorded a substantial write-down of the fair value of the YPF assets as of March 31, 2026. See "Management's discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations-Results of operations and financial condition- Fair value of capital provision assets-Fair value of YPF-related assets" for additional information with respect to the YPF-related assets. Accordingly, the application of fair value accounting to our capital provision assets may result in us recognizing non-cash income that may never be realized, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations and/or liquidity.
Risk Highlights Q2, 2026
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 51
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 1Investors will not have an opportunity to independently evaluate our legal finance assets.
We generally do not disclose details of our existing or prospective legal finance assets (including their valuations for accounting purposes) on an individual basis because of restrictions applicable to privileged information and other relevant restrictions. As a result, investors will not have an opportunity to evaluate our legal finance assets and will be dependent upon our judgment and ability in selecting, managing and valuing our assets.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 2Our ordinary shares are traded on more than one market, which may result in price and volume variations.
Our ordinary shares have traded on the NYSE since October 2020 and on AIM since 2009. Trading in our ordinary shares on these markets takes place in different currencies (US dollar on the NYSE and pound sterling on AIM) and at different times (resulting from different time zones, different trading days and different public holidays in the United States and the United Kingdom). The trading prices, volatility and liquidity of our ordinary shares on these two markets may differ due to these and other factors, including different custody and settlement arrangements that may affect cross-market trading. Any decrease in the price of our ordinary shares on AIM could cause a decrease in the trading price of our ordinary shares on the NYSE, and vice versa. Investors could seek to sell or buy our ordinary shares to take advantage of any price differences between the markets through a practice referred to as arbitrage. Any arbitrage activity could create unexpected volatility in the trading price of our ordinary shares.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 3The trading price of our ordinary shares may fluctuate significantly.
The market price of our ordinary shares has been highly volatile. For example, the market price of our ordinary shares has ranged on AIM from a high of £18.70 per ordinary share on March 14, 2019 (approximately $24.84 using the exchange rate of $1.3282 on March 14, 2019) to a low of £2.81 per ordinary share on March 18, 2020 (approximately $3.31 using the exchange rate of $1.1763 on March 18, 2020). The market price of our ordinary shares on the NYSE and AIM could continue to be volatile due to the risks set forth in this 2025 Form 10-K and others beyond our control, including: ?Regulatory actions or changes in laws with respect to legal finance or practices commonly used in the legal finance industry ?Negative publicity about or public perception of the legal finance industry or us ?Actual or anticipated fluctuations in our financial condition and/or results of operations ?Increased competition and actual or anticipated changes in our growth rate relative to our competitors ?Announcements by us or our competitors of significant acquisitions, strategic partnerships, joint ventures, collaborations or capital commitments ?Failure to meet or exceed financial estimates and projections of the investment community or that we provide to the public ?Issuance of research reports by securities analysts or other members of the financial community ?Fluctuations in the valuation of companies perceived by investors to be comparable to us ?Additions or departures of key management ?Sales or issuances of our ordinary shares by us, insiders or other shareholders ?General economic and market conditions These and other market and industry factors may cause the market price and demand for our ordinary shares to fluctuate significantly regardless of our actual operating performance. In addition, the trading market for our ordinary shares is affected by the research and reports that equity research analysts publish about us and our business, over which we have no control. The price of our ordinary shares could fluctuate significantly if one or more equity analysts issue unfavorable commentary or cease publishing reports about us.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 4Future issuances or sales of our securities may cause the market price of our ordinary shares to decline.
The market price of our ordinary shares could decline as a result of issuances of securities (including our ordinary shares) by us or sales by our existing shareholders of ordinary shares in the market, or the perception that such issuances or sales could occur. Sales of our ordinary shares by shareholders may make it more difficult for us to sell equity securities at a time and price that we deem appropriate. See note 18 (Share-based and deferred compensation) to our consolidated financial statements contained in this 2025 Form 10-K for information with respect to our ordinary shares issued, and available for future grants, under our equity-based incentive compensation plans. Issuances or sales of substantial numbers of our ordinary shares, or the perception that such issuances or sales could occur, may adversely affect the market price of our ordinary shares.
- Share Price & Shareholder Rights - Risk 5The rights and protections of our shareholders are governed by Guernsey law, which may differ in certain material respects from the rights and protections of shareholders under US law.
The rights and protections of our shareholders are governed principally by our memorandum of incorporation and articles of incorporation and by the Companies (Guernsey) Law, 2008, as amended (the "Guernsey Companies Law"). The Guernsey Companies Law differs in certain material respects from laws applicable to companies organized under the laws of the United States. As a result, the rights and protections of our shareholders may differ in certain material respects from the rights and protections of shareholders of companies organized under the laws of the United States. See exhibit 4.1 to this 2025 Form 10-K for additional information with respect to the differences between the rights and protections of our shareholders and those of shareholders of companies organized under the laws of the United States.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.