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ICG plc (ICG) AI Stock Analysis

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ICG plc

(LSE:ICG)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - Gpt-5.6Sol)

Rating:66Neutral

Price Target:

1,948.00 p

▼(-3.18% Downside)

Action:Reiterated

Date:08/23/26

The score is held back primarily by weaker financial statement quality signals—especially the 2026 cash flow deterioration and elevated leverage—despite strong reported profitability. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call points to strong fee-related earnings growth, record operating cash flow, AUM/fundraising momentum, and meaningful deleveraging. Technicals are supportive (price above key moving averages with healthy momentum), and valuation looks reasonable with a moderate P/E and a ~4.3% dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Fee-related earnings growth

Strong growth in fee-related earnings and a wider underlying margin indicate improving operating leverage in the recurring fee platform. If sustained, this can increase earnings resilience, support reinvestment in fundraising and capabilities, and reduce reliance on volatile performance fees.

Negative Factors

Revenue contraction

The sharp revenue decline shows that reported top-line performance remains exposed to fundraising cycles, realizations, and fee-related volatility despite strong recent fee-earnings growth. Continued contraction would constrain operating leverage and make it harder for current margin improvements to translate into sustained profit growth.

Read all positive and negative factors

Positive Factors

Negative Factors

Fee-related earnings growth

Read all positive factors

ICG plc (ICG) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

£5.31B

Dividend Yield4.69%

Average Volume (3M)1.42M

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1

Beta (1Y)1.42

Revenue Growth6.46%

EPS Growth6.47%

CountryUK

Employees676

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength70

IndustryAsset Management

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.67

Shares Outstanding275,363,300

10 Day Avg. Volume1,109,807

30 Day Avg. Volume1,418,314

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.43

Price to Book (P/B)1.61

Price to Sales (P/S)5.23

P/FCF Ratio-160.26

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

£2,580.00

Price Target Upside28.23% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

EPS Forecast (FY)1.61

Revenue Forecast (FY)£962.77M

ICG plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ICG Plc is a global alternative asset manager focused on providing adaptable financial solutions to support companies in their growth and development. With a rich history spanning over three decades, the firm strategically invests across various l...

How the Company Makes Money

ICG makes money primarily by managing third-party capital in its investment funds and earning (1) management fees and (2) performance-based fees, alongside (3) investment returns from its own balance-sheet investments. 1) Management fees (recurri...

ICG plc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 21, 2026

(Q4-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial performance: robust fundraising ($17bn), double-digit growth in fee-earning AUM (11% YoY to $87bn), a 23% rise in FRE to GBP 350m, record GBP 861m operating cash flow, substantial deleveraging and clear medium-term FRE margin expansion guidance. Management emphasized market leadership in several strategies (real assets, GP-led secondaries), significant dry powder ($36bn), and disciplined deployment. Key caveats include short-term volatility in balance sheet returns (5% this year with CLO mark-to-market losses), lumpiness and some accounting-driven components in performance fees, and an expectation that FY27 fundraising will be lower given timing. Overall, the positive operational momentum, strong cash generation and improved margins outweigh the cautions.

Positive Updates

Strong Fundraising and AUM Growth

Raised $17.0bn in FY26 (materially above expectations); fee-earning AUM grew 11% year-on-year to $87bn and total assets under management stood at $126bn as of 31 March 2026.

Negative Updates

Balance Sheet Short-Term Volatility and Lower FY26 Return

Balance sheet returned 5% in FY26 (below long-term double-digit target) and debt exposure produced a negative GBP 7m (≈-2%) driven by mark-to-market movements in the CLO portfolio, highlighting potential short-term volatility in balance sheet returns.

Read all updates

Q4-2026 Updates

Positive

Negative

Strong Fundraising and AUM Growth

Raised $17.0bn in FY26 (materially above expectations); fee-earning AUM grew 11% year-on-year to $87bn and total assets under management stood at $126bn as of 31 March 2026.

Read all positive updates

Company Guidance

Guidance focused on expanding fee‑related earnings (FRE) margin (excluding catch‑up fees) over the medium term while delivering FRE per share accretion: FY26 FRE was GBP350m (120p, +23% YoY) with FRE margin ex catch‑up up from 33% in FY21 to ~47% today; management fees were GBP685m (+13% YoY, 98bps management fee rate) and performance fees are expected to be 10–20% of total fee income (FY26 performance fees GBP127m including a GBP72m transition gain; GBP96m cash realized). Fundraising guidance remains a $55bn four‑year target (two years in, $40bn raised; FY26 fundraising $17bn), fee‑earning AUM stands at $87bn (up 11% YoY) with total AUM $126bn and $19bn of non‑fee‑earning AUM (≈£120m potential fees), dry powder $36bn, deployments $14bn and realizations ~ $7bn, distributions to clients $9bn. Balance sheet: GBP2.6bn of assets (5% FY return; 5‑yr avg ~10%), co‑investment cash yield c.10% (co‑invest portfolio generated ~GBP500m net cash flow), group operating cash flow GBP861m, net debt GBP113m (down from GBP629m; net debt/FRE 0.3x) with a priority to reach zero net debt before broader capital returns (87p ordinary dividend) and then consider buybacks, M&A, seeding or further co‑investments.

ICG plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. Income statement profitability is strong (Income Statement Score 74), but revenue fell sharply in 2026 (-25.8% YoY). The balance sheet shows elevated leverage (Balance Sheet Score 58). Cash generation is the main concern: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned negative in 2026 (Cash Flow Score 34), raising earnings-quality and liquidity risk if persistent.

Income Statement

Positive

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Cash Flow

Negative

Breakdown	Mar 2026	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	834.00M	990.40M	981.70M	599.00M	989.50M
Gross Profit	799.60M	951.40M	963.70M	579.10M	934.70M
EBITDA	645.00M	548.30M	598.70M	269.20M	637.10M
Net Income	478.40M	451.20M	473.40M	280.60M	526.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.91B	9.34B	9.12B	9.05B	8.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.46B	604.80M	990.00M	550.00M	761.50M
Total Debt	6.56B	6.11B	6.13B	6.11B	6.02B
Total Liabilities	7.21B	6.85B	6.82B	7.01B	6.87B
Stockholders Equity	2.70B	2.49B	2.30B	2.02B	1.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-27.20M	129.50M	246.40M	280.40M	235.60M
Operating Cash Flow	-26.50M	136.10M	255.90M	291.60M	243.40M
Investing Cash Flow	1.02B	276.10M	71.50M	130.80M	45.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-478.10M	-524.60M	-282.50M	-476.70M	111.30M

ICG plc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price2012.00

Price Trends

50DMA

1864.18

Negative

100DMA

1861.97

Negative

200DMA

1772.47

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-5.54

Negative

RSI

56.82

Neutral

STOCH

95.11

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ICG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2012 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1792.95, above the 50-day MA of 1864.18, and above the 200-day MA of 1772.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -5.54 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.82 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ICG.

ICG plc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABDN	73 Outperform	£3.94B	10.11	7.37%	6.61%	2.19%	19.78%
III	72 Outperform	£24.83B	4.56	17.91%	3.45%	-25.49%	3.34%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ICG	66 Neutral	£5.31B	11.11	18.00%	4.69%	6.46%	6.47%
BPT	66 Neutral	£3.72B	127.10	2.71%	3.52%	36.24%	-53.64%
MNG	58 Neutral	£7.61B	-69.31	-3.86%	6.45%	67.89%	-87.40%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GB:ICG

ICG plc

1,855.00

13.43

0.73%

GB:III

3i Group plc

2,448.00

-1,811.85

-42.53%

GB:ABDN

Aberdeen Group

221.00

30.86

16.23%

GB:MNG

M&G Plc

319.50

73.18

29.71%

GB:BPT

Bridgepoint Group Plc

411.80

124.55

43.36%

ICG plc Corporate Events

Regulatory Filings and Compliance

ICG Updates Market on Total Voting Rights and Share Structure

Neutral

Oct 1, 2026

ICG plc has reported its latest share capital structure, confirming that as of 30 September 2026 it had 275,363,297 Ordinary Shares with voting rights in issue, alongside 15,280,825 Ordinary Non-Voting shares. The company holds no shares in treasu...