Aberdeen Group (ABDN) AI Stock Analysis

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Aberdeen Group

(LSE:ABDN)

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:―

abrdn's stock score reflects a blend of strong financial resilience, with debt elimination and solid cash flow, offset by challenges in revenue volatility and operational inefficiencies. Technical analysis suggests potential short-term pressure, while valuation metrics indicate fair pricing with a high dividend yield. The recent earnings call highlights growth in assets under management and cost savings, though tempered by sector-specific challenges.

Positive Factors

Management and Strategy

New management, a focus on areas of strength, and the effect of cost savings make analysts think that £100m of adjusted PBT is realistic in 2026.

Revenue and Profit Growth

Analysts expect continued revenue and profit growth for the Interactive Investor segment, supported by rising trading activity, strong customer growth, and an increased focus on profitability.

Valuation and Stock Rating

Aberdeen's current valuation is seen as an attractive entry point, leading to an upgrade of the shares to Buy from Neutral.

Negative Factors

Asset Management Challenges

The group has faced significant challenges within its asset management business, which has had to navigate high-margin outflows and eroding profitability.

Historical Stock Performance

Aberdeen's shares have delivered relatively disappointing returns over the past three years, falling c.12% vs the SXFP's 36% gain.

Aberdeen Group (ABDN) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

£3.47B

Dividend Yield7.51%

Average Volume (3M)4.61M

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7

Beta (1Y)1.81

Revenue Growth-5.51%

EPS Growth1596.15%

CountryUK

Employees4,409

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength77

IndustryAsset Management

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.07

Shares Outstanding1,840,743,400

10 Day Avg. Volume6,808,821

30 Day Avg. Volume4,605,750

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.42

Price to Book (P/B)1.19

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio49.30

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

£167.78

Price Target Upside-12.29% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering9

Aberdeen Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Descriptionabrdn plc provides asset management services in the United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and Asia. The company offers investment solutions and funds; long-term savings and investment products to individual and corporate customers; and life insurance and savings products. It provides its products through institutional, wholesale, and retail distribution channels. It also makes real estate investments. The company was formerly known as Standard Life Aberdeen plc. abrdn plc was founded in 1825 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, United Kingdom.

How the Company Makes Moneyabrdn makes money primarily through management fees charged on the assets it manages across its investment portfolios. These fees are typically a percentage of the assets under management (AUM) and vary based on the type of investment product and service provided. abrdn also earns revenue from performance fees, which are contingent on meeting or exceeding certain investment benchmarks. In addition to these core revenue streams, partnerships and strategic alliances play a significant role in expanding abrdn's distribution channels and market reach, further contributing to its earnings.

Aberdeen Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 23.42%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant achievements in AUMA growth, cost savings, and improved investment performance, tempered by challenges in the Adviser business and continued outflows in fixed income and insurance partners. The focus on operational efficiency and leadership changes are positive steps, but the balance of highlights and lowlights suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

AUMA Growth

Assets Under Management and Administration (AUMA) reached £511 billion, up 1% in Q4 and 3% for the full year 2024.

Interactive Investor Performance

Customer numbers for Interactive Investor increased by 8% for the full year, reaching 439,000, with a net flow of £5.7 billion for the year, almost double that of 2023.

Cost Savings Achieved

Achieved over £100 million in run rate savings, on track to meet the £150 million annualized savings target by the end of 2025.

Improvement in Investment Flows

Net inflow in the quarter with £2.3 billion in Institutional & Retail Wealth (IRW), marking a significant improvement from the £17.9 billion outflow in 2023.

Improved Fund Performance

All major asset classes showed improvement on a three-year basis with equities one-year performance increasing from 23% to 32%.

Negative Updates

Adviser Business Challenges

Adviser AUMA was flat in Q4, with outflows offsetting positive market impacts, and a continued focus needed to return to net inflows.

Fixed Income Outflows

Fixed income experienced an outflow of £0.4 billion in Q4, though an improvement from £4 billion outflow in 2023.

Insurance Partners Net Outflow

Insurance Partners had a net outflow of £1.8 billion in Q4, with AUM flat in Q4 and up 2% for the year.

Lower Revenue Margins

A shift towards lower margin areas in the investment business, with a noted decrease in revenue margin expected in 2025.

Company Guidance

During the call, abrdn's CEO, Jason Windsor, provided guidance on their Q4 performance and strategic priorities. At the end of December, their Assets Under Management and Administration (AUMA) stood at £511 billion, marking a 1% increase for the quarter and a 3% increase for the year. The company reported a net inflow of £2.3 billion in the Institutional & Retail Wealth segment, with notable growth in alternative investments, quants, and liquidity products. The interactive investor platform saw an 8% increase in customer numbers, reaching 439,000, and attracted £5.7 billion in net flows for the year. The company achieved £100 million in run rate savings in 2024, progressing towards a target of £150 million by the end of 2025. Windsor emphasized the focus on sustaining growth and improving operational efficiency, with strategic hires aimed at enhancing service and product performance. The Investments business saw a £1.5 billion increase in AUM for the quarter, driven by positive market conditions and inflows into specific segments. The Adviser business reported a 2% AUMA increase for the year, despite a £0.9 billion outflow in Q4, with plans to return to positive net flows through improved service and pricing strategies. Overall, Windsor expressed confidence in the company's ability to achieve sustainable growth and improve profitability in 2025.

Aberdeen Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

abrdn shows a mixed financial performance. Improvements in net profitability and free cash flow generation are positive, but revenue volatility and past operational inefficiencies remain concerning. A strong balance sheet with a solid equity base and debt elimination enhances financial resilience.

Income Statement

Neutral

The income statement reflects moderate performance with a substantial revenue decrease over the years, from $3.7 billion in 2020 to $1.53 billion in 2024. The net profit margin in 2024 is approximately 16.25%, indicating profitability improvement from prior years. However, the history of negative EBIT in recent years raises concerns about operational efficiency. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, showing volatility in the company’s revenue streams.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a strong equity position, as evidenced by a high equity ratio of 65.2% in 2024. The company has reduced its debt significantly, achieving a debt-free status in 2024, which enhances financial stability. However, the decline in total assets since 2020 suggests potential asset management challenges.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis shows robust free cash flow generation, with a growth rate of 11.11% from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating good cash conversion. The company effectively manages its capital expenditures, but fluctuations in operating cash flow over the years suggest potential variability in cash generation capacity.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.55B	1.48B	1.42B	1.48B	3.70B
	Gross Profit
1.53B	1.45B	1.39B	1.45B	3.60B
	EBIT
351.00M	-6.00M	-598.00M	1.11B	738.00M
	EBITDA
403.00M	154.00M	-444.00M	1.26B	872.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
248.00M	1.00M	-549.00M	994.00M	833.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.33B	1.20B	1.16B	1.94B	1.52B
	Total Assets
7.72B	8.03B	9.25B	11.42B	10.48B
	Total Debt
597.00M	1.03B	624.00M	706.00M	840.00M
	Net Debt
-738.00M	-167.00M	-532.00M	-1.23B	-717.00M
	Total Liabilities
2.68B	3.15B	3.37B	706.00M	3.67B
	Stockholders Equity
5.03B	4.88B	5.87B	7.85B	6.81B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
180.00M	162.00M	83.00M	2.00M	31.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
213.00M	221.00M	110.00M	14.00M	56.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
258.00M	542.00M	-86.00M	755.00M	1.01B
	Financing Cash Flow
-342.00M	-711.00M	-761.00M	-243.00M	-1.06B

Aberdeen Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price191.30

Price Trends

50DMA

158.07

Positive

100DMA

156.17

Positive

200DMA

147.68

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

8.97

Negative

RSI

73.06

Negative

STOCH

77.96

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:ABDN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 191.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 176.34, above the 50-day MA of 158.07, and above the 200-day MA of 147.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 8.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.06 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:ABDN.

Aberdeen Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
EMG	79 Outperform	£2.00B	8.77	17.94%	9.67%	18.85%	26.14%
SDR	78 Outperform	£5.74B	14.00	9.48%	8.11%	0.72%	7.66%
RAT	77 Outperform	£1.77B	26.70	4.83%	7.47%	49.59%	18.13%
ABDN	69 Neutral	£3.47B	14.73	4.88%	7.51%	-5.51%	1596.15%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$12.93B	9.81	7.84%	78.03%	12.20%	-7.74%
MGPUF		$8.18B	31.80	-10.00%	10.22%	―	―
NINTF		$4.21B	8.22	40.46%	7.57%	―	―

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GB:ABDN

Aberdeen Group

191.30

59.83

45.51%

GB:EMG

Man Group plc

173.50

-56.73

-24.64%

GB:RAT

Rathbones Group PLC

1,686.00

100.17

6.32%

GB:SDR

Schroders

368.40

16.68

4.74%

MGPUF

M&G Plc

3.43

1.20

53.81%

NINTF

Ninety One

1.80

-0.25

-12.20%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.