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BP p.l.c.
(LSE:BP)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
651.00 p
▲(23.16% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
Overall score reflects improving fundamentals led by strong cash generation and a TTM earnings recovery, tempered by higher leverage and historical earnings volatility. Technical signals are mixed/neutral and valuation is challenged by a high P/E despite a solid dividend yield. The latest earnings call supports the score with clearer guidance and deleveraging momentum, but meaningful safety and operational execution risks remain.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
BP’s strong operating cash generation provides funding for reinvestment, dividends and debt reduction without relying solely on asset sales. The reported quarterly deleveraging and management’s earlier-than-planned net-debt target improve financial resilience and could reduce balance-sheet constraints over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage reduces flexibility
Higher leverage leaves BP with less flexibility to absorb a commodity downturn, fund major projects or respond to operational setbacks. Although deleveraging is progressing, debt remains elevated relative to recent history, so interest obligations and balance-sheet repair can constrain capital allocation over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and deleveraging
BP’s strong operating cash generation provides funding for reinvestment, dividends and debt reduction without relying solely on asset sales. The reported quarterly deleveraging and management’s earlier-than-planned net-debt target improve financial resilience and could reduce balance-sheet constraints over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
£94.68B
Dividend Yield4.08%
Average Volume (3M)46.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.7
Beta (1Y)0.47
Revenue Growth12.19%
EPS Growth900.77%
CountryUK
Employees93,700
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding15,705,667,000
10 Day Avg. Volume52,059,868
30 Day Avg. Volume46,830,637
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-19.58
Price to Book (P/B)1.71
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio8.05
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
£654.30Price Target Upside23.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)£231.84B
BP p.l.c. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
BP p.l.c. functions as a global energy corporation. Its activities are structured across four primary divisions: Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, Customers & Products, and Rosneft. The company is engaged in the exploration, pr...
How the Company Makes Money
BP makes money primarily by selling energy and energy-related products and services across the hydrocarbon value chain and, to a smaller extent, through its low-carbon and power activities.
1) Upstream (oil and natural gas production): A major so...
BP p.l.c. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced strong financial and cash generation momentum — a 78% QoQ increase in underlying profit, substantial cash generation, net debt and financial obligation reductions, a dividend increase and active portfolio optimization — against material operational and structural challenges including a fatal safety incident, increased Tier 1 process safety events, QoQ production and refining throughput declines, inventory losses and impairments, a $7 billion first-half working capital build and insufficient downward traction on underlying operating costs. Management communicated a clear, disciplined plan (portfolio high-grading, cost and capital discipline, and balance sheet focus) and targets to address weaknesses, which together with the quarter's financial improvements tilt the tone positive but pragmatic.Positive Updates
Strong Quarter-on-Quarter Profit Recovery
Group underlying replacement cost profit rose significantly to $5.7 billion (group underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax $10.3 billion), an increase of 78% versus Q1 2026, driven by stronger prices and trading performance.
Negative Updates
Fatality and Deterioration in Safety Metrics
A fatal incident occurred at the Gemlik blending plant in Turkey in April; process safety events increased in H1 2026 versus H1 2025, including an increase in Tier 1 events; management stated safety performance 'has not been where it needs to be.'
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarter-on-Quarter Profit Recovery
Group underlying replacement cost profit rose significantly to $5.7 billion (group underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax $10.3 billion), an increase of 78% versus Q1 2026, driven by stronger prices and trading performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call added forward-looking production and throughput ranges and gave specific financial guidance: full‑year CapEx of $13.5–14.0 billion and expected divestment proceeds of $8–9 billion (including around $6 billion from the announced Castrol transaction), an updated refining indicator margin following the Gelsenkirchen sale (effective 31 July) and a full‑year underlying effective tax rate of about 35–40%. On the balance sheet, management expects financial obligations to fall to roughly $39–41 billion by end‑2026 and to deliver the $14–18 billion net‑debt target ahead of plan (including a planned $1 billion perpetual hybrid repayment in Q3). They forecast a $2–3 billion unwind of working capital in H2 (after a H1 working‑capital build of $7 billion and a Q2 build of $1 billion) as a key cash source, alongside organic cash and remaining divestments; Q2 cash metrics were total sources $13.5 billion, underlying cash generation $12.9 billion and reported operating cash flow $10.9 billion (after ~$1 billion interest and the $1 billion working‑capital build), plus ~$600 million of Q2 divestment proceeds, which helped reduce net debt by ~$3.1 billion to $22.3 billion and cut financial obligations by ~ $7 billion vs Q1; the quarter’s operating metrics included group underlying profit $5.7 billion (group underlying RC PBIT $10.3 billion), IFRS profit $3.9 billion, upstream production ~2.2 million boe/d (‑6% q/q) and refining throughput ~1.5 million bpd (‑4% q/q).BP p.l.c. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 215.60B | 189.34B | 185.23B | 213.67B | 240.86B | 154.71B |
| Gross Profit | 47.29B | 33.53B | 28.11B | 47.39B | 54.05B | 21.65B |
| EBITDA | 38.21B | 31.07B | 24.91B | 42.92B | 29.05B | 27.75B |
| Net Income | 5.39B | 55.00M | 382.83M | 15.50B | -2.48B | 7.42B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 296.16B | 278.53B | 282.23B | 280.29B | 288.12B | 287.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 37.42B | 36.71B | 34.52B | 28.59B | 29.77B | 30.96B |
| Total Debt | 73.07B | 72.53B | 71.55B | 63.08B | 55.49B | 69.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 219.34B | 204.53B | 203.91B | 194.80B | 205.13B | 196.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 58.73B | 53.05B | 59.25B | 70.28B | 67.55B | 75.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.09B | 11.27B | 12.00B | 17.75B | 28.86B | 12.72B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 28.94B | 24.49B | 27.30B | 32.04B | 40.93B | 23.61B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.66B | -11.50B | -13.25B | -14.87B | -13.71B | -5.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -16.12B | -15.88B | -7.30B | -13.36B | -28.02B | -18.08B |
BP p.l.c. Technical Analysis
Positive
528.60
Price Trends
568.83
Positive
537.30
Positive
523.59
Positive
Market Momentum
17.21
Negative
60.95
Neutral
53.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:BP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 528.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 598.10, below the 50-day MA of 568.83, and above the 200-day MA of 523.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 17.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:BP.
BP p.l.c. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | £223.18B | 11.44 | 14.66% | 2.87% | 4.03% | 97.15% | |
72 Outperform | £4.90B | 21.75 | 16.13% | 1.82% | 44.51% | 104.04% | |
67 Neutral | £5.31B | 23.46 | 9.66% | 3.91% | 17.03% | ― | |
67 Neutral | £5.06B | 25.95 | 10.32% | 8.68% | 28.04% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
60 Neutral | £94.68B | 23.66 | 9.53% | 4.08% | 12.19% | 900.77% | |
58 Neutral | £1.41B | -8.75 | -114.52% | 7.82% | 8.94% | -196.02% |
* Energy Sector Average
GB:BP
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.