CVR Energy (0HRR) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For Q3 the company guided Petroleum throughput of roughly 205,000–220,000 bpd with operating expenses of $110–$120 million and petroleum capital spending of $41–$50 million; for the Fertilizer segment it expects ammonia utilization of 75%–80% (impacted by a late‑August East Dubuque turnaround), direct operating expenses excluding inventory/turnaround of $57–$62 million, turnaround costs of $30–$35 million and fertilizer capex of $40–$49 million. Full‑year 2026 consolidated capex was estimated at $215–$240 million; liquidity at June 30 was about $1.1 billion (including roughly $600 million cash and $540 million ABL availability) with consolidated cash of $737 million and a gross leverage target of $1.0 billion (excluding CVR Partners). Hedge exposure for Q3 is ~2.7 million barrels (notional ≈ $102 million), total open crack‑spread positions ≈ 8.2 million barrels, ~4.6 million barrels of diesel and 0.4 million barrels of gasoline hedged for the remainder of 2026 and ~3.2 million barrels of diesel hedged in 2027. Management also reiterated ratable RIN purchasing (planning to buy 50% of Wynnewood’s obligation), noted an accrued RFS obligation of $408 million at June 30 and Q2 RIN pricing near $14/ bbl; quarter‑to‑date Group‑3 2‑1‑1 cracks averaged $58.70/ bbl and prompt fertilizer prices were $650–$700/ton for ammonia and $325–$350/ton for UAN.