Greggs plc (GRG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: £1.67B
• Dividend Yield: 3.28%
• Average Volume (3M): 637.62K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: 8.06%
• EPS Growth: 5.15%
• Country: UK
• Employees: 33,146
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Grocery Stores
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 102,255,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 493,500
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 637,618
• PEG Ratio: 2.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.92
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.39
• P/FCF Ratio: 40.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: £2,066.63
• Price Target Upside: 24.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: 1,868.00p ▲(12.19% Upside)

Greggs plc is well-positioned in the grocery store industry, with strong financial performance and an attractive valuation. The technical analysis suggests short-term bullish momentum, although longer-term resistance is present. The absence of recent earnings call data and corporate events does not detract from the company's solid fundamentals.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term expansion and stability.

Profitability Margins

Improved profitability margins reflect effective cost management and operational efficiency, enhancing the company's competitive position.

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation supports ongoing investments and growth initiatives, ensuring financial flexibility and resilience.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow due to higher capital expenditures can limit available funds for other strategic investments and shareholder returns.

Leverage

Moderate leverage indicates some reliance on debt, which could pose risks if interest rates rise or if revenue growth slows.

Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio

A lower free cash flow to net income ratio suggests limited cash availability post-investment, potentially affecting liquidity and financial flexibility.

Greggs plc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greggs plc is a leading UK-based bakery chain known for its wide range of freshly baked goods, including pastries, sandwiches, salads, and beverages. Established in 1939, the company operates both retail and takeaway outlets, primarily focusing on the food-to-go sector. Greggs emphasizes quality and value, offering affordable products that cater to a diverse customer base across various demographics. With a commitment to using high-quality ingredients, Greggs has built a strong brand reputation and a loyal customer following throughout the UK.

How the Company Makes Money

Greggs generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products in company-operated shops and franchise locations. The company has a diverse product range, including savoury items like sausage rolls and steak bakes, sweet items such as pastries and cakes, and a selection of beverages. Key revenue streams include in-store sales, online orders, and delivery services. Greggs has also expanded its reach through partnerships with delivery platforms, enhancing its accessibility. Seasonal promotions and limited-time offerings contribute to customer interest and revenue fluctuations. Additionally, the company has implemented a successful loyalty program that encourages repeat purchases, further supporting its revenue growth.

Greggs plc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greggs plc exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability margins. The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with moderate leverage. Although the free cash flow has declined, the company's operational cash generation remains strong, supporting its growth initiatives.

Income Statement

Greggs plc has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 11.33% increase in 2024 over the previous year. The gross profit margin improved to 61.73%, indicating strong operational efficiency. The net profit margin for 2024 stands at 7.61%, with EBIT and EBITDA margins at 10.39% and 14.19%, respectively. These figures reflect healthy profitability and effective cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.73, showing moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is 26.89%, indicating effective use of shareholders' funds to generate returns. The equity ratio is 43.23%, suggesting a balanced capital structure with a stable financial foundation.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow decreased by 28.21% in 2024, reflecting higher capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.03, showcasing robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.53, indicating some constraints in cash available after investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.08B	2.01B	1.81B	1.51B	1.23B	811.30M
Gross Profit	1.28B	1.24B	1.10B	933.60M	782.00M	511.70M
EBITDA	286.10M	357.50M	323.60M	271.30M	260.40M	106.40M
Net Income	144.80M	153.40M	142.50M	120.30M	117.50M	-13.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.34B	1.32B	1.13B	974.40M	888.40M	729.70M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	32.50M	125.30M	195.30M	191.60M	198.60M	36.80M
Total Debt	451.40M	415.10M	319.60M	301.30M	283.20M	291.70M
Total Liabilities	773.20M	749.20M	598.80M	525.60M	456.00M	404.40M
Stockholders Equity	569.00M	570.50M	530.90M	446.00M	429.20M	321.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.80M	70.00M	112.70M	149.60M	231.20M	-17.40M
Operating Cash Flow	289.70M	310.90M	310.80M	252.90M	285.50M	44.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-308.10M	-217.10M	-191.20M	-100.80M	-54.00M	-59.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-95.40M	-163.80M	-115.90M	-159.10M	-69.70M	-38.90M

Greggs plc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1665.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GB:GRG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1665 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1646.40, above the 50-day MA of 1605.10, and below the 200-day MA of 1793.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 18.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GB:GRG.

Greggs plc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRG	77 Outperform	£1.67B	11.66	27.24%	3.28%	8.06%	5.15%
MER	70 Neutral	£280.50M	5.80	25.63%	4.95%	-2.79%	37.33%
CBOX	69 Neutral	£89.10M	18.58	18.89%	5.04%	13.04%	-6.44%
JDW	64 Neutral	£673.02M	10.44	17.81%	1.70%	4.52%	50.39%
GLE	62 Neutral	£209.57M	13.24	5.23%	2.28%	5.93%	-18.26%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DOM	59 Neutral	£725.05M	9.57	―	5.51%	-0.67%	2.43%

Greggs plc Corporate Events

Greggs Reports Strong Q3 Sales Growth and Expands Shop Network

Greggs plc reported a 6.1% increase in total sales for the third quarter of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 6.7%. Despite challenges from high temperatures in July, trading improved in August and September. The company opened 130 new shops and closed 73, resulting in 57 net new openings, and expects around 120 net shop openings for the year. Greggs is expanding its ‘Bake at Home’ range and enhancing its menu with new high-protein options and seasonal items. The company is also progressing with its supply chain investments, with new distribution centers in Derby and Kettering set to open in 2026 and 2027, supporting future growth. The outlook for cost inflation in 2025 is slightly improved, and the board’s full-year expectations remain unchanged.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £1804.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs plc to Release Q3 Trading Update on October 1, 2025

Greggs plc has announced that it will release its third quarter trading update on October 1, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s operational performance and market strategy, potentially impacting its industry positioning and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £1766.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs Delays Board Appointment Amid WHSmith Review

Greggs plc announced a delay in the appointment of Robert Moorhead to its Board, following a review by Deloitte concerning WHSmith plc. In the meantime, Kate Ferry will continue her role as a Non-Executive Director and chair the Audit Committee, ensuring stability in the company’s governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £21.45 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs Appoints New Non-Executive Director and Audit Chair

Greggs plc has announced the appointment of Robert Moorhead as an independent Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Audit Committee, effective from October 1, 2025. This follows the retirement of Kate Ferry, who has significantly contributed to the company, especially in advising on financing during the pandemic. Moorhead’s extensive experience in financial management and retail, gained from his previous roles at WH Smith plc and Watches of Switzerland Group plc, is expected to benefit Greggs’ strategic direction and governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.

Greggs Reports Sales Growth Amid Strategic Expansion and Innovation

Greggs plc reported a 7% increase in total sales for the first half of 2025, despite facing challenges such as reduced market footfall and weather disruptions. The company is focusing on strategic expansion and innovation, including new shop openings and menu developments, to enhance convenience and meet changing customer preferences. Greggs is also investing in supply chain infrastructure to support future growth, with plans to open more shops and expand its frozen ‘Bake at Home’ range through a partnership with Tesco.

The most recent analyst rating on (GB:GRG) stock is a Buy with a £3600.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greggs plc stock, see the GB:GRG Stock Forecast page.