Want to see FR:VLA full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Valneva
(VLA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
€2.50
▼(-11.97% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, persistent cash burn, and rising leverage). Technicals provide some support via strong recent momentum, but overbought signals increase near-term risk. Valuation is constrained by negative earnings, while the latest earnings call adds some upside optionality from reaffirmed guidance, restructuring benefits, and Lyme vaccine/regulatory catalysts despite a weak H1.
Positive Factors
Lyme vaccine pipeline
The Lyme vaccine gives Valneva a potentially transformative late-stage asset beyond its current commercial portfolio. Strong efficacy and safety data, combined with Pfizer’s EMA filing, could create a new long-term revenue stream if regulatory approval is achieved.
Negative Factors
Revenue contraction
The sharp decline in revenue shows that Valneva’s current commercial base is not yet producing consistent growth. Lower sales across key products reduce operating leverage and make it harder for the company to absorb fixed costs or fund pipeline investment internally.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Lyme vaccine pipeline
The Lyme vaccine gives Valneva a potentially transformative late-stage asset beyond its current commercial portfolio. Strong efficacy and safety data, combined with Pfizer’s EMA filing, could create a new long-term revenue stream if regulatory approval is achieved.
Read all positive factors
Valneva (VLA) vs. iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ)
Market Cap
€487.05M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)367.03K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.68
Revenue Growth-27.19%
EPS Growth-117.39%
CountryFR
Employees620
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.90
Shares Outstanding190,379,440
10 Day Avg. Volume408,637
30 Day Avg. Volume367,031
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)5.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.58
P/FCF Ratio-10.90
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)€151.72M
Valneva Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Valneva SE is a specialized biotechnology company focused on developing and bringing to market preventative vaccines for infectious diseases with significant unmet medical needs. Their commercial offerings for travelers include IXIARO, a vaccine a...
How the Company Makes Money
Valneva primarily makes money through (1) product sales of its commercial vaccines and (2) revenue from collaborations/licensing and related payments when applicable.
1) Commercial vaccine sales (core revenue stream)
- Valneva generates revenue b...
Valneva Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: materially weaker H1 2026 financials with significant revenue decline, margin compression and one-off manufacturing charges drove a much larger operating loss and EBITDA deterioration. At the same time, the company strengthened its cash position, implemented a restructuring expected to reduce costs and improve H2 cash flow, and highlighted high-impact pipeline developments — most notably strong clinical data and advancing regulatory progress for the Lyme vaccine (Pfizer EMA filing and potential decisions within 12 months), plus progress on IXCHIQ in Brazil and a promising Shigella program. Given the combination of near-term financial strain and clear strategic and clinical catalysts that could be transformative if successful, the overall tone is cautious but constructive.Positive Updates
Strong cash position after financing and discipline
Cash at June 30, 2026 was EUR 121.5 million (up from EUR 109.6 million at FY2025 year-end), an increase of EUR 11.9 million (~+10.9%), reflecting proceeds from the recent offering and disciplined cash management.
Negative Updates
Significant year-over-year revenue decline
Total revenues in H1 2026 were EUR 65.8 million versus EUR 97.6 million in H1 2025, a decrease of EUR 31.8 million (~-32.6%), driven largely by lower product sales and the absence of prior-year one-off revenues.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong cash position after financing and discipline
Cash at June 30, 2026 was EUR 121.5 million (up from EUR 109.6 million at FY2025 year-end), an increase of EUR 11.9 million (~+10.9%), reflecting proceeds from the recent offering and disciplined cash management.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Valneva confirmed fiscal 2026 guidance of product sales EUR 135–150 million and total revenues EUR 145–160 million, expects a new U.S. Department of Defense IXIARO contract to be signed in the coming months with sales recorded in H2, and said its commercial business should generate positive cash flow while a June restructuring (EUR 3.2m one‑time cost in H1) will have a positive P&L and cash‑flow impact in H2 and beyond. In H1 the company reported product sales of EUR 64.0m (IXIARO EUR 44.0m, DUKORAL EUR 14.7m, IXCHIQ EUR 4.4m, third‑party EUR 1.0m), total revenues EUR 65.8m, cash EUR 121.5m (vs EUR 109.6m at FY‑end 2025), cash used in operations EUR 13.7m, operating loss EUR 49.9m and adjusted EBITDA loss EUR 40.1m; H1 COGS were EUR 59.5m including non‑recurring IXCHIQ cancellation fees of EUR 9.7m and an inventory impairment of EUR 4.5m. Management expects product‑related gross margin to improve in H2 and reiterated potential to become financially self‑sustainable pending regulatory approval of the Lyme vaccine (company noted 2026; CEO later clarified 2027).Valneva Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
33
Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 142.94M | 174.66M | 169.58M | 153.71M | 361.30M | 348.08M |
| Gross Profit | 23.44M | 67.52M | 71.04M | 52.84M | 36.86M | 160.16M |
| EBITDA | -102.90M | -50.47M | 32.08M | -57.72M | -104.72M | -38.73M |
| Net Income | -157.65M | -115.19M | -12.25M | -101.43M | -143.28M | -73.42M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 388.28M | 398.84M | 500.03M | 460.06M | 621.34M | 817.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 121.53M | 109.65M | 168.27M | 126.08M | 289.43M | 346.64M |
| Total Debt | 210.23M | 207.25M | 216.31M | 208.82M | 152.38M | 114.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 307.15M | 292.67M | 318.78M | 331.81M | 401.55M | 646.77M |
| Stockholders Equity | 81.12M | 106.17M | 181.25M | 128.25M | 219.80M | 170.58M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -83.49M | -57.38M | -83.66M | -217.06M | -274.67M | -16.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -81.15M | -52.89M | -67.22M | -202.74M | -245.34M | 76.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 447.00K | -1.71M | 76.92M | -20.59M | -29.05M | -93.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 40.14M | -621.00K | 30.68M | 63.08M | 215.12M | 154.50M |
Valneva Technical Analysis
Positive
2.84
Price Trends
2.71
Negative
2.51
Positive
2.95
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
50.13
Neutral
55.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FR:VLA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.84 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.51, above the 50-day MA of 2.71, and below the 200-day MA of 2.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FR:VLA.
Valneva Risk Analysis
Valneva disclosed 86 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Valneva reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Successful commercialization of our products depends on numerous factors, some of which may be outside of our control. Q4, 2023
Valneva Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
47 Neutral | €487.05M | -2.84 | -152.15% | ― | -27.19% | -117.39% | |
47 Neutral | €204.54M | -4.40 | -29.36% | ― | 189.81% | 38.50% | |
44 Neutral | €7.07B | -17.14 | -85.88% | ― | ― | ― | |
43 Neutral | €599.11M | -2.72 | -119.47% | ― | ― | 41.33% | |
43 Neutral | €176.70K | ― | -26.52% | ― | -44.46% | 100.00% | |
41 Neutral | €51.53M | -1.30 | -96.73% | ― | -96.25% | -197.89% |
* General Sector Average
FR:VLA
Valneva
2.56
-1.40
-35.32%
FR:ABVX
Abivax SA
80.75
-2.95
-3.52%
FR:DBV
DBV Technologies
1.91
-0.62
-24.66%
FR:TNG
Transgene
0.74
-0.57
-43.46%
FR:OSE
OSE Immunotherapeutics SA
2.19
-3.72
-62.91%
FR:ALNEV
Neovacs SA
0.10
-439.90
-99.98%
Valneva Corporate Events
Valneva Intensifies Investor Outreach Ahead of Key Lyme Vaccine Milestones
Oct 14, 2026
Valneva’s leadership team plans a series of presentations and investor meetings at healthcare and biotech conferences in France, the U.S. and the U.K. over the coming weeks. The events, which include fireside chats and interactive discussion...
Valneva Shrugs Off U.K. Revocation of Chikungunya Vaccine License
Oct 7, 2026
Valneva said the U.K. Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency has revoked the marketing authorization for its chikungunya vaccine IXCHIQ after a benefit‑risk reassessment for travelers, citing only previously known safety data. T...
Valneva Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure as of September 30, 2026
Oct 5, 2026
Valneva reported that as of September 30, 2026, its share capital consisted of 189,771,237 ordinary shares with a nominal value of €0.15 each. The company disclosed a total of 204,365,399 theoretical voting rights and 204,241,077 exercisable...
Valneva Updates Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure as of August 31, 2026
Sep 4, 2026
Valneva reported that as of August 31, 2026, its share capital comprised 189,771,237 ordinary shares with a nominal value of €0.15 each, corresponding to 204,364,085 gross voting rights and 204,239,763 net voting rights. The change in voting...
Pfizer and Valneva Win EMA Review of First Hexavalent Lyme Vaccine
Aug 14, 2026
Pfizer and Valneva have secured European Medicines Agency review of their hexavalent Lyme disease vaccine candidate PF-07307405, targeting six OspA serotypes common in North America and Europe. The application is supported by the Phase 3 VALOR tri...
Valneva Maintains 2026 Guidance as Restructuring Bolsters Cash and Late-Stage Vaccines Advance
Aug 13, 2026
Valneva reported first-half 2026 revenues of €65.8 million, including €64.0 million in product sales, down year-on-year due to the planned wind-down of third-party distribution and phasing effects for key products such as IXIARO and DU...
Valneva Updates Investors on Share Capital and Voting Rights Structure
Aug 5, 2026
Valneva reported its share and voting rights position as of July 31, 2026, detailing a share capital of 189,771,237 ordinary shares with a par value of €0.15. The company disclosed a total of 204,363,556 theoretical voting rights, including ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.