Forestar Group AI Stock Analysis
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Forestar Group (FOR) AI Stock Analysis
Forestar Group
(NYSE:FOR)
The score is primarily supported by solid financial health (steady revenue growth, positive earnings, and improving leverage) and an attractive low earnings multiple. These positives are tempered by volatility in cash flow, some margin compression, and mixed technicals (below key longer-term moving averages). The latest earnings call adds a modest offset as fiscal 2027 guidance implies slower activity than fiscal 2026 amid affordability and mortgage-rate headwinds.
Forestar Group (FOR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $1.18B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 170.49K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 8.2
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.58
- Revenue Growth
- -1.64%
- EPS Growth
- -15.37%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 402
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Real Estate - Development
Forestar Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Forestar Group Inc. is an American company primarily engaged in developing residential lots. Its business model entails acquiring land, then preparing the necessary infrastructure for new single-family housing communities. These fully developed lots...
How the Company Makes Money
Forestar primarily makes money by developing land into finished residential lots and selling those lots to homebuilders. Its core revenue stream is lot sales revenue recognized when control of finished lots transfers to the buyer, typically under pur...
Forestar Group Earnings Call Summary
The call was predominantly positive. Forestar reported solid fiscal 2026 revenue, earnings, book value growth, liquidity and customer expansion, while maintaining disciplined investment and low leverage. The principal challenges were affordability and mortgage-rate pressure, lower reported fourth-quarter margins due to project-specific charges and impairments, sequentially lower finished lots, and a fiscal 2027 outlook below fiscal 2026 actual lot deliveries and revenue.
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For fiscal 2027, Forestar currently expects to invest approximately $1.3 billion in land acquisition and development, with the majority in development, and expects headcount to remain relatively flat; it expects to deliver between 12,000 and 13,000 lots and generate $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion of revenue, with the first quarter expected to be the lowest lot delivery and revenue quarter of the year and lot deliveries and revenues in the second half of fiscal 2027 expected to be higher than the first half.
Forestar Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are solid overall: revenue has grown steadily with positive earnings, and the balance sheet has strengthened as leverage improved and equity expanded. Offsetting this, profitability has shown margin compression versus 2024 and cash flow has been notably volatile (including negative operating/free cash flow in 2024–2025 before a TTM rebound), which raises cyclicality/working-capital risk.
Income Statement
72PositiveBalance Sheet
74PositiveCash Flow
63Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2026 | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.64B | 1.64B | 1.66B | 1.51B | 1.44B | 1.52B |
| Gross Profit | 322.40M | 322.40M | 363.50M | 359.30M | 304.10M | 324.00M |
| EBITDA | 187.50M | 192.10M | 222.80M | 273.10M | 224.60M | 238.50M |
| Net Income | 142.60M | 142.60M | 167.90M | 203.40M | 166.90M | 178.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.31B | 3.31B | 3.14B | 2.84B | 2.47B | 2.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 657.00M | 657.00M | 379.20M | 481.20M | 616.00M | 264.80M |
| Total Debt | 794.20M | 794.20M | 817.10M | 716.60M | 703.10M | 714.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.39B | 1.39B | 1.37B | 1.25B | 1.10B | 1.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.92B | 1.92B | 1.77B | 1.59B | 1.37B | 1.20B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 27.30M | 0 | -199.90M | -160.60M | 362.80M | 105.20M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 27.60M | 0 | -197.70M | -158.40M | 364.10M | 108.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0 | 0 | 3.20M | 7.30M | 300.00K | 1.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -11.60M | 0 | 92.50M | 16.30M | -13.20M | 1.20M |
Forestar Group Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FOR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.99, below the 50-day MA of 25.85, and below the 200-day MA of 27.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FOR.
Forestar Group Risk Analysis
Forestar Group disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Forestar Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
2 New RisksForestar Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
JOE70Outperform- FOR68Neutral
HHH65Neutral
FPH58Neutral
AXR51Neutral
MLP46Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOE | 70Outperform | $4.12B | 33.88 | 15.84% | 0.92% | 11.10% | 17.69% |
| FOR | 68Neutral | $1.18B | 8.19 | 7.73% | ― | -1.64% | -15.37% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
| HHH | 65Neutral | $5.05B | 28.90 | 3.92% | ― | 43.49% | -43.77% |
| FPH | 58Neutral | $480.98M | 10.93 | 3.47% | ― | -39.15% | -69.83% |
| AXR | 51Neutral | $113.37M | 19.46 | 4.21% | ― | -15.29% | -56.15% |
| MLP | 46Neutral | $295.90M | -65.84 | -14.25% | ― | -4.11% | 66.64% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOR | Forestar | 22.84 | -1.64 | -6.70% | |
| AXR | AMREP Corporation | 21.44 | -0.07 | -0.33% | |
| HHH | Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. | 83.85 | -3.20 | -3.68% | |
| MLP | Maui Land & Pineapple | 15.11 | 0.23 | 1.55% | |
| JOE | St. Joe Co | 71.82 | 13.75 | 23.67% | |
| FPH | Five Point Holdings | 4.47 | -1.79 | -28.59% |
Forestar Group Corporate Events
Forestar Group Announces Leadership Transition and Board Refresh
PositiveOn October 28, 2026, Forestar Group announced that long-serving Executive Chairman Donald J. Tomnitz will retire from the board effective October 31, 2026, after leading the company’s strategic direction and growth since 2017. He will remain involved...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2026