Forestar Group (FOR) Risk Analysis

For certain projects, we rely on governmental districts to issue bonds to reimburse us for qualified expenses, such as road and utility infrastructure costs. Bonds are often supported by assessments of district tax revenues, usually from ad valorem taxes. Slowing new home sales, decreasing real estate values or difficult credit markets for bond sales can reduce or delay district bond sale revenues and tax or assessment receipts, causing such districts to delay reimbursement of our qualified expenses. Failure to receive reimbursement for qualified expenses could adversely affect our cash flows and reduce our returns or cause us to incur losses on certain real estate development projects.

We are subject to income taxes at the federal, state and local levels, and any changes in tax legislation could adversely affect our future effective tax rates and the value of our deferred tax assets. We are also subject to an extensive number of laws and regulations because our common stock is publicly traded in the capital markets. These regulations govern our communications with our shareholders and the capital markets, our financial statement disclosures and our legal processes, and they also impact the work required to be performed by our independent registered public accounting firm and our legal counsel. Changes in these laws and regulations, including the subsequent implementation of rules by the administering government authorities, may require us to incur additional compliance costs, and such costs may be significant.

We are subject to extensive and complex regulations that affect land acquisition, development and home construction, including zoning, density restrictions and building standards. These regulations often provide broad discretion to the administering governmental authorities as to the conditions we must meet prior to acquisition or development being approved, if approved at all. We are subject to determinations by these authorities as to the adequacy of water or sewage facilities, roads or other local services. New housing developments may also be subject to various assessments for schools, parks, streets and other public improvements. In addition, government authorities in many markets have implemented no growth or growth control initiatives. Any of these may limit, delay or increase the costs of acquisition of land for residential use and development or home construction. We are also subject to a significant number and variety of local, state and federal laws and regulations concerning protection of health, safety, labor standards and the environment. The impact of environmental laws varies depending upon the prior uses of the building site or adjoining properties and may be greater in areas with less supply where undeveloped land or desirable alternatives are less available. These matters may result in delays, may cause us to incur substantial compliance, remediation, mitigation and other costs, and can prohibit or severely restrict land acquisition and development activity in environmentally sensitive regions or areas. Government agencies also routinely initiate audits, reviews or investigations of our business practices to ensure compliance with these laws and regulations, which can cause us to incur costs or create other disruptions in our business that can be significant. In recent years, advocacy groups, government agencies and the general public have expressed growing concerns regarding the effects of climate change on the environment. Transition risks, such as government restrictions, standards or regulations intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potential climate change impacts, are emerging and may increase in the future in the form of restrictions or additional requirements on land development in certain areas. Such restrictions and requirements could increase our operating and compliance costs or require additional technology and capital investment, which could adversely affect our results of operations. This is a particular concern in the western United States, where some of the most extensive and stringent environmental laws and residential building construction standards in the country have been enacted, and where we have business operations. We believe we are in compliance in all material respects with existing climate-related government restrictions, standards and regulations applicable to our business, and such compliance has not had a material impact on our business. However, given the rapidly changing nature of environmental laws and matters that may arise that are not currently known, we cannot predict our future exposure concerning such matters, and our future costs to achieve compliance or remedy potential violations could be significant. Additionally, actual or perceived sustainability matters and our response to these matters could harm our business. Increasing governmental and societal attention to sustainability matters, including expanding mandatory and voluntary reporting, diligence, and disclosure on topics such as climate change, human capital, labor, cybersecurity and risk oversight, could expand the nature, scope, and complexity of matters that we are required to control, assess and report. In March 2024, the SEC adopted new rules regarding climate-related disclosures. These rules were subsequently challenged in legal proceedings, and their effectiveness was stayed by the SEC pending judicial review. In March 2025, the SEC terminated its defense of the rules; however, if they become effective, they would require public companies to make a wide range of climate-related disclosures. Similarly, the State of California has enacted its own legislation requiring extensive climate-related disclosures for companies deemed to be doing business in California, and other states are considering similar laws. Any of the above factors may alter the environment in which we do business and may increase the ongoing costs of compliance and adversely impact our results of operations and cash flows. If we are unable to adequately address such sustainability matters or fail to comply with all laws, regulations, policies and related interpretations, it could negatively impact our reputation and our business results. The subcontractors we rely on to perform the actual development of our residential lots are also subject to a significant number of local, state and federal laws and regulations, including laws involving matters that are not within our control. If the subcontractors who develop our residential lots fail to comply with all applicable laws, we can suffer reputational damage and may be exposed to liability.

Land development sites are inherently dangerous, and operating in this industry poses certain inherent health and safety risks. Due to health and safety regulatory requirements and the number of residential lots we develop, health and safety performance is critical to the success of our business. Any failure in health and safety performance may result in penalties for non-compliance with relevant regulatory requirements, and a failure that results in a major or significant health and safety incident is likely to be costly and could expose us to liability that could be costly. Such an incident could generate significant negative publicity and have a corresponding impact on our reputation, our relationships with relevant regulatory agencies or governmental authorities, and our ability to attract customers and employees, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our financial results and liquidity.

We depend to a large extent on the services of certain key management personnel. These individuals have significant experience and skills as well as leadership and management abilities that are vital to our success. Our ability to attract and retain our key personnel may be impacted by matters involving reputation, culture, diversity and inclusion, compensation and benefits and our management of executive succession. We seek to retain our key personnel to have succession and transition plans in place to address the potential loss of key personnel and to manage personnel transitions due to retirements, promotions, transfers and other circumstances. However, if our retention, succession and transition implementation efforts are unsuccessful, the loss of key personnel could adversely affect our business.

We operate in a highly competitive industry. Competitive conditions in the real estate development industry may result in difficulties acquiring suitable land at acceptable prices, lower sales volumes and prices, increased development or construction costs and delays in construction. We compete with numerous regional and local developers for the acquisition of land suitable for development. We also compete with national, regional and local homebuilders who develop real estate for their own use in homebuilding operations, many of which are larger and have greater resources than we do or are smaller and have lower cost structures than we do. Any improvement in the cost structure or service of our competitors will increase the competition we face. Our business, financial condition and results of operations may be negatively affected by any of these factors.

The homebuilding and lot development industries are cyclical and are significantly affected by changes in general and local economic and real estate conditions, such as: - employment levels;- consumer confidence and spending;- housing demand;- demand for residential lots;- availability of financing for homebuyers;- availability of financing for companies that purchase our residential lots;- interest rates;- inflation; and - demographic trends. Adverse changes in general and local economic conditions or deterioration in the broader economy may negatively impact our business and financial results and increase the risk of asset impairments and write-offs. Changes in economic conditions may affect some of our regions or markets more than others. If adverse conditions affect our larger markets, they could have a proportionately greater impact on us than on some other real estate development companies. The federal government's fiscal policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policies may negatively impact the financial markets and consumer confidence and could hurt the U.S. economy and the real estate market, and in turn, could adversely affect the operating results of our business. In response to rising inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates significantly in 2022 and 2023, which led to an increase in mortgage interest rates. While interest rates have since been lowered and may be lowered further, mortgage interest rates have remained elevated since 2022. The increase in mortgage interest rates has reduced the affordability of homes and thus affected the demand for finished lots, requiring us to use pricing adjustments and incentives to adapt to current market conditions. Prolonged periods of elevated mortgage interest rates or further increases in mortgage interest rates could have an adverse impact on our business and financial results. Deployments of U.S. military personnel to foreign regions, terrorist attacks, other acts of violence or threats to national security and any corresponding response by the United States or others, domestic or international instability or social or political unrest may cause an economic slowdown in the markets where we operate, which could adversely affect our business. If we experience any of the foregoing, homebuilders may be less willing or able to buy our residential lots. Additionally, cancellations of lot sales contracts may increase if homebuilders do not honor their contracts due to any of the factors discussed above. Our pricing and product strategies may also be limited by market conditions. We may be unable to change the pricing or mix of our product offerings, reduce the costs of the residential lots we develop, or satisfactorily address changing market conditions in other ways without adversely affecting our profits and returns.

We use information technology and other computer resources, including artificial intelligence, to carry out important operational and marketing activities and to maintain our business records. These information technology systems are dependent upon global communications providers, web browsers, third-party software and data storage providers and other aspects of the Internet infrastructure that have experienced cyber security incidents, significant systems failures and service outages in the past. Additionally, phishing attacks, whereby perpetrators attempt to fraudulently induce employees, customers, vendors or other users of a company's systems to disclose personal information to gain access to its data, have increased significantly in recent years. With the use of artificial intelligence, these phishing attacks may contain highly convincing language making them difficult to distinguish from legitimate messages. The use of remote work environments and virtual platforms may increase our risk of cyber incidents that could compromise our data. Further, geopolitical tensions or conflicts may create a heightened risk of these incidents. Our normal business activities involve collecting and storing information specific to our customers, employees, vendors and suppliers and maintaining operational and financial information related to our business, both in an office setting and remote locations as needed. A material breach in the security of our information technology systems or other data security controls, or those of the third parties we work with, could include the theft or release of this information. The unintended or unauthorized disclosure of personal identifying and confidential information as a result of a cybersecurity incident by any means could lead to litigation or other proceedings against us by the affected individuals or business partners, or by regulators. The outcome of such proceedings, which could include penalties or fines, could have a significant negative impact on our business. We may also be required to incur significant costs to protect against damages caused by information technology failures, cybersecurity incidents, and the failure to satisfy privacy, data protection, and artificial intelligence laws and regulations in the future as legal requirements continue to increase. The European Union and other international regulators, as well as state governments, have enacted or enhanced privacy, data protection, and artificial intelligence regulations, such as the California Privacy Rights Act and the Colorado Privacy Act, and other governments are considering establishing similar or stronger protections. Among other things, these regulations impose certain obligations for handling specified personal information in our systems, including notifying individuals regarding information we have collected from them. We have incurred costs in an effort to comply with these requirements, but our costs may increase significantly if new requirements are enacted and based on how individuals exercise their rights. Any loss of personal information and failure to comply with these requirements or other applicable laws and regulations in this area could result in substantial penalties, reputational damage or litigation. We routinely utilize information technology security experts to assist us in our evaluations of the effectiveness of the security of our information technology systems, and we regularly enhance our security measures, which include multiple redundant safeguards, to protect our systems and data. We use various encryption, tokenization and authentication technologies to mitigate cybersecurity risks and have increased our monitoring capabilities to enhance early detection and rapid response to potential cyber threats. However, because the techniques used to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade systems change frequently and increasingly leverage sophisticated technologies such as artificial intelligence, they often are not recognized until launched against a target. As such, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques, to implement adequate preventative measures or to identify and investigate cybersecurity incidents. We may also incur costs to adapt our cybersecurity program to the evolving threat landscape and to investigate and remediate vulnerabilities or other identified risks. Although past cybersecurity incidents have not had a material effect on our business or operations to date, in the future, a significant and extended disruption in the functioning of our information technology systems or a breach of any of our data security controls could disrupt our business operations, damage our reputation and cause us to lose customers. Additionally, if a cybersecurity incident is determined to be material, we are subject to additional reporting requirements. We cannot provide assurances that a cyber incident, including data theft or other significant systems or security failures will not occur in the future, and such occurrences could have a material and adverse effect on our consolidated results of operations or financial position.