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Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) AI Stock Analysis

FND

Floor & Decor Holdings

(NYSE:FND)

Select Model
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:$51.00â–²(7.17% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/31/26

The score is driven primarily by solid and improving fundamentals (strong recent revenue momentum, steady margins, and better cash flow trajectory) and a constructive earnings update emphasizing execution and liquidity. This is tempered by pressured comparable sales/transactions and identifiable margin headwinds in guidance, while the technical setup remains below key longer-term moving averages and valuation offers no dividend support.

Positive Factors
Category Share GainsSustained tile share gains indicate that Floor & Decor is strengthening its competitive position in a core category, rather than relying only on market growth. Continued share capture can support durable volume growth and improve the productivity of its expanding store base.
Negative Factors
Weak Comparable DemandNegative comparable sales and declining transactions show that the existing-store business remains exposed to weak housing activity and cautious discretionary spending. Persistent traffic pressure can limit operating leverage, slow earnings growth, and make expansion less productive until demand improves.

Floor & Decor Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Comparable Store Sales GrowthMeasures the sales performance of existing stores over a specific period, indicating the company's ability to grow sales without expanding its store base. A key indicator of consumer demand and operational effectiveness.

-20.00%0.00%20.00%40.00%60.00%Mar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26
Chart Insights

Comps have moved from pandemic-era excess to a multi-quarter trough in 2023–early 2024 and, while still negative, show a steady, tentative improvement into 2026 — an inflection, not a full rebound. Management pins remaining weakness on vinyl/laminate pressure, fewer transactions and softer commercial demand, but pricing tests, Pro/digital gains, lower-cost new stores and a $400M repurchase give upside if transactions stabilize; persistent housing or big-ticket weakness would quickly reverse the fragile recovery.

Data provided by:The Fly

Floor & Decor Holdings (FND) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%FND-22.83%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$5.07B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
2.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
21.3
Beta (1Y)
1.22
Revenue Growth
1.82%
EPS Growth
10.69%
Country
US
Employees
12,096
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Home Improvement

Floor & Decor Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. functions as a leading multi-channel business, acting as both a specialized retailer and a commercial distributor of hard surface flooring and its related accessories. The company provides a wide array of flooring options...

How the Company Makes Money

Floor & Decor primarily makes money by selling hard-surface flooring products and complementary installation and finishing materials to customers through its retail stores and e-commerce/omnichannel operations. Its core revenue stream is product sale...

Floor & Decor Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-5.46%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive about the company's execution and financial flexibility despite a challenging demand environment. Earnings, cash flow, liquidity, Pro momentum, digital conversion, category share gains and expense discipline were strong, while negative comparable sales, pressured housing-related demand, higher transportation costs, ongoing laminate and vinyl weakness and a slower 2027 store-opening pace remained meaningful challenges.

Positive Updates

Third-Quarter EPS Growth
Diluted earnings per share increased 15% to $0.61 from $0.53 last year. Excluding an approximately $0.02 per-share benefit from the lower year-over-year tax rate, EPS grew 11%, reflecting disciplined expense management and solid operational execution.

Negative Updates

Challenged Big-Ticket Demand
Demand for big-ticket discretionary home improvement projects remains challenged. Fourth-quarter-to-date comparable store sales declined approximately 3.8%, while management cited 30-year mortgage rates above 7%, pressure on housing affordability, subdued pending and existing home sales, selective consumer spending and higher energy costs.

Company Guidance

For fiscal 2026, sales are expected to be in the range of $4.765 billion to $4.835 billion, or increase by 2% to 3% from fiscal 2025, with the 53rd week expected to contribute approximately $65 million to sales; comparable store sales are estimated to be down 3.5% to down 2.0%, comp average ticket is estimated to be up low single digits, comp transactions are estimated to be down mid-single digits, adjusted gross margin is expected to be approximately 43.6%, SG&A as a percentage of sales is estimated to be approximately 38.5%, interest income expense, net, is expected to be approximately 0, tax rate is expected to be approximately 21.5% to 22.0%, depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $250 million, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $535 million to $550 million with the 53rd week contributing approximately $11 million, diluted earnings per share is estimated to be approximately $2.19 to $2.29, adjusted diluted earnings per share is estimated to be approximately $1.88 to $1.98, the 53rd week is expected to contribute approximately $0.08 to adjusted diluted EPS, implying 52-week adjusted diluted EPS of $1.80 to $1.90, diluted weighted average shares outstanding are estimated to be approximately 107 million shares, and CapEx is estimated to be approximately $235 million to $250 million; the company plans to open 8 new warehouse format stores in the fourth quarter, bringing fiscal 2026 openings to 20, and currently plans for 10 to 15 openings in 2027, with a broader Pro loyalty program launch on track for the first quarter of 2027.

Floor & Decor Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong TTM revenue acceleration and still-healthy profitability (gross margin ~45%, EBITDA margin ~12%) support the score. Offsetting this, profitability is below 2021–2022 peaks (net and EBIT margin compression), leverage has been volatile year-to-year, and cash conversion is mixed (FCF ~56% of net income; operating cash flow <50% of EBITDA), indicating working-capital/reinvestment drag despite improvement.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

64Positive

Cash Flow

67Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.75B4.68B4.46B4.41B4.26B3.43B
Gross Profit2.13B2.04B1.93B1.86B1.73B1.42B
EBITDA572.01M519.09M488.65M523.30M551.78M457.19M
Net Income239.73M208.65M205.87M245.98M298.19M283.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.72B5.47B5.05B4.66B4.35B3.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments392.48M249.30M187.67M34.38M9.79M139.44M
Total Debt1.99B3.63B1.69B1.63B1.74B1.42B
Total Liabilities3.23B3.06B2.88B2.73B2.69B2.41B
Stockholders Equity2.48B2.41B2.17B1.93B1.66B1.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow342.53M64.07M156.33M255.98M-344.15M-106.33M
Operating Cash Flow609.38M381.84M603.15M803.59M112.45M301.34M
Investing Cash Flow-266.84M-317.76M-446.83M-564.97M-455.64M-471.24M
Financing Cash Flow-154.53M-2.44M-3.04M-214.03M213.54M1.57M

Floor & Decor Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price47.59

Price Trends

50DMA47.79Negative
100DMA52.04Negative
200DMA54.63Negative

Market Momentum

MACD0.18Negative
RSI51.28Neutral
STOCH76.63Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FND, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 47.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.37, below the 50-day MA of 47.79, and below the 200-day MA of 54.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FND.

Floor & Decor Holdings Risk Analysis

Floor & Decor Holdings disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Floor & Decor Holdings reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Production - Risks related to the company’s ability to manufacture goods and services

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Floor & Decor Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

FND against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
MHKMHK77Outperform$8.43B16.306.17%―4.50%26.62%
FNDFND66Neutral$4.96B21.349.74%―1.82%10.69%
ARHSARHS63Neutral$1.76B25.1117.23%―5.44%-3.28%
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
LOWLOW61Neutral$117.30B17.66-71.79%2.34%8.16%-2.84%
HDHD58Neutral$328.44B22.99102.68%2.82%2.50%-2.95%
RHRH52Neutral$2.78B24.82184.91%―3.35%3.38%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-20%0%20%FNDHDLOWMHKRHARHSDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
FND and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
FNDFloor & Decor Holdings47.59-12.05-20.20%
HDHome Depot329.20-38.73-10.53%
LOWLowe's Companies209.07-21.50-9.32%
MHKMohawk Industries, Inc.139.4128.2125.37%
RHRh146.66-23.41-13.76%
ARHSArhaus, Inc. Class A12.453.0532.50%

Floor & Decor Holdings Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures

Floor & Decor Updates Board Leadership and Governance Structure

Positive
Oct 29, 2026

On October 28, 2026, Floor &amp; Decor&#8217;s board approved the transition of Thomas Taylor from Executive Chair to non-executive Chair effective January 1, 2027, removing him from executive officer status and aligning his pay with the company&#821...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026