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First Keystone (FKYS) AI Stock Analysis

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FKYS

First Keystone

(Other OTC:FKYS)

Select Model
Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:$20.50â–²(8.90% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/01/26

The score is driven primarily by improving but still mixed financial performance (recovery in profitability and positive cash flow, offset by thin operating margins and declining free cash flow). Technicals add support with an uptrend above key moving averages and positive momentum indicators, while valuation is a modest positive due to a reasonable P/E and strong dividend yield.

Positive Factors
Profitability RecoveryThe return to positive earnings and improved net margin indicate that First Keystone has regained profitability after a difficult period. This creates a stronger base for capital retention, dividend support, and continued investment, although operating performance still requires improvement.
Negative Factors
Thin Operating MarginsVery low operating margins leave limited room for revenue disruption, higher expenses, or weaker credit performance before earnings are affected. The gap between improved net income and weaker operating profitability also raises questions about how sustainable the recent recovery will be.

First Keystone (FKYS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%0%10%20%30%40%FKYS+23.17%SPY+11.79%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
Market Cap
$124.46M
Dividend Yield
5.81%
Average Volume (3M)
2,256
Price to Earnings (P/E)
14.8
Beta (1Y)
0.07
Revenue Growth
7.11%
EPS Growth
1.20%
Country
US
Employees
204
Sector
Financial
Sector Strength
68
Industry
Banks - Regional

First Keystone Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Keystone Corporation acts as the holding company for First Keystone Community Bank, which delivers a comprehensive suite of banking and financial offerings. These services are provided to individuals, businesses, government entities, and other...

How the Company Makes Money

First Keystone primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by earning (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is generated from the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets—primarily loans (e....

First Keystone Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials point to a recovery but not yet consistently strong execution. Profitability has rebounded (TTM net margin ~9.2%) and cash flow remains positive with solid earnings quality (FCF-to-net income ~0.97). Offsetting this, operating profitability is thin (EBIT/EBITDA ~2%) and free cash flow declined ~21% YoY, while leverage is improved but still meaningful for a bank (D/E ~1.16).

Income Statement

63Positive

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

60Neutral
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue86.39M83.31M77.12M62.00M50.84M48.28M
Gross Profit41.64M39.06M36.33M34.34M42.20M42.27M
EBITDA2.13M7.64M-12.30M7.04M17.37M18.05M
Net Income7.92M6.15M-13.20M5.56M14.02M14.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.57B1.53B1.43B1.42B1.33B1.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments378.09M402.98M407.54M409.98M384.18M499.50M
Total Debt268.45M269.71M267.35M302.44M205.45M88.88M
Total Liabilities1.46B1.42B1.32B1.29B1.21B1.17B
Stockholders Equity118.46M113.06M106.78M121.61M120.39M148.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow10.08M11.12M6.44M4.25M14.64M14.76M
Operating Cash Flow10.34M11.44M8.17M5.91M16.53M15.26M
Investing Cash Flow15.06M4.63M-33.16M-76.83M-93.63M-111.34M
Financing Cash Flow123.51M87.92M25.23M77.20M26.51M133.25M

First Keystone Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price18.82

Price Trends

50DMA19.08Negative
100DMA18.70Positive
200DMA18.48Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-0.05Positive
RSI38.96Neutral
STOCH14.33Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FKYS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.57, below the 50-day MA of 19.08, and above the 200-day MA of 18.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FKYS.

First Keystone Risk Analysis

First Keystone disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. First Keystone reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

First Keystone Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

FKYS against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
MGYRMGYR78Outperform$143.96M11.0410.23%1.70%8.91%30.08%
LSBKLSBK75Outperform$145.41M16.697.78%1.93%4.31%24.16%
Sector *68Neutral$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
FKYSFKYS65Neutral$123.38M14.846.92%5.81%7.11%1.20%
UNBUNB63Neutral$112.91M8.6815.07%6.31%3.17%5.55%
PROVPROV60Neutral$113.27M17.815.18%3.08%0.19%13.84%
RVSBRVSB49Neutral$119.92M-41.56-2.02%1.33%-10.03%-162.70%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

0%10%20%30%FKYSLSBKMGYRPROVRVSBUNBDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26
FKYS and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
FKYSFirst Keystone Corporation18.823.5523.28%
LSBKLake Shore Bancorp18.694.8334.80%
MGYRMagyar Bancorp22.305.4232.14%
PROVProvident Financial Holdings18.173.1621.02%
RVSBRiverview6.010.8917.29%
UNBUnion Bankshares, Inc.22.831.356.28%

First Keystone Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing

First Keystone boosts capital with new subordinated notes

Positive
Oct 1, 2026

On September 30, 2026, First Keystone Corporation closed a private placement of $32.5 million in fixed-to-floating rate subordinated notes due September 30, 2036, sold at par to institutional investors and qualified institutional buyers. The notes ca...

Business Operations and Strategy

First Keystone to Redeem Fixed-to-Floating Rate Notes

Neutral
Aug 28, 2026

On August 28, 2026, First Keystone Corporation announced it will redeem all of its outstanding 4.375% Fixed to Floating Rate Notes due December 31, 2030, with an aggregate principal amount of $25 million. The redemption is scheduled for September 30,...

DividendsFinancial Disclosures

First Keystone Maintains Steady Dividends Amid Strong Growth

Positive
Aug 27, 2026

On August 27, 2026, First Keystone Corporation declared a third-quarter cash dividend of $0.28 per share, payable on September 30, 2026 to shareholders of record as of September 10. This brings total cash dividends to $0.84 per share year-to-date as...

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 01, 2026